Primary
Democratic Primary
Held March 3, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caitlin Rourk ✓ | 32,611 | 60.8% | |
| Dawn Marshall | 12,131 | 22.6% | |
| Bernardo Reyna | 8,893 | 16.5% | |
| Bernie Reyna | 8,860 | 16.5% |
Republican Primary
Held March 3, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Gober ✓ | 38,410 | 51.3% | |
| Ben Bius | 10,460 | 14.0% | |
| Rob Altman | 5,650 | 7.5% | |
| Jessica Karlsruher | 5,332 | 7.1% | |
| Scott MacLeod | 5,040 | 6.7% | |
| Jeremy Story | 3,384 | 4.5% | |
| Kara King | 2,144 | 2.9% | |
| Jenny Garcia Sharon | 1,786 | 2.4% | |
| Rob Brown | 1,768 | 2.4% | |
| Brandon Hawbraker | 977 | 1.3% | |
| Brandon Hawbaker | 973 | 1.3% |
Full calendar and every race: Texas primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
The right edge is that same average of the last three polls. This is an average, not a forecast.
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Candidates
General Election Polling Average
Average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls. Fewer than three uses the polls that exist. The rating uses that average when the newest poll ended in the last 30 days. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research partisan·D | 2026-09-22 | 613 LV | ±4.30 | Caitlin Rourk 41.00% | Chris Gober 48.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 TX-10 House race?
Chris Gober leads Caitlin McClay Rourk 48% to 41% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+7.0 margin based on 1 poll, the last three or fewer.
Is the 2026 TX-10 House race competitive?
It is not considered a top-tier battleground: the PollingSource polling average rates it Likely R, the current rating band. An upset is not impossible.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 TX-10 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from Change Research (completed September 22, 2026), found Caitlin Rourk (D) at 41% and Chris Gober (R) at 48%.
When is the 2026 TX-10 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls, or fewer when fewer exist. One poll sets the rating when it ended in the last 30 days. We do not exclude pollsters. The table lists recent polls, including ones older than those three. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
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