Primary
Democratic Primary
Held May 19, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Shapiro ✓ | 1,116,960 | 100.0% |
Republican Primary
Held May 19, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stacy Garrity ✓ | 641,534 | 100.0% |
Full calendar and every race: Pennsylvania primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
The right edge is that same average of the last three polls. This is an average, not a forecast.
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Candidates
Josh Shapiro Nominee Incumbent
Democrat
Stacy Garrity Nominee
RepublicanGeneral Election Polling Average
LV = likely voters · RV = registered voters · ± = margin of error · R-sponsored / D-sponsored / I-sponsored = paid for by a Republican, Democratic, or Independent group · "missed 2024 by X pts" = that firm's average miss in 2024
Average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls. Fewer than three uses the polls that exist. The rating uses that average when the newest poll ended in the last 30 days. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote In average | 2026-10-21 this poll | 400 LV | ±4.90 | Josh Shapiro 61.50% | Stacy Garrity 38.50% |
| Franklin & Marshall In average | 2026-10-18 this poll | 433 LV | ±5.60 | Josh Shapiro 59.00% | Stacy Garrity 36.00% |
| PennLive In average | 2026-10-11 this poll | 628 RV | ±4.50 | Josh Shapiro 58.00% | Stacy Garrity 28.00% |
| Quinnipiac University Polling Institute Not in average | 2026-10-05 this poll | 1159 LV | ±3.90 | Josh Shapiro 59.00% | Stacy Garrity 34.00% |
| Z to A Research D-sponsored Not in average | 2026-10-01 this poll | 630 LV | Josh Shapiro 53.00% | Stacy Garrity 34.00% | |
| Susquehanna missed 2024 by 3.7 pts Not in average | 2026-09-30 this poll | 700 LV | ±3.70 | Josh Shapiro 52.00% | Stacy Garrity 31.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 Pennsylvania governor's race?
Josh Shapiro leads Stacy Garrity 59.5% to 34.2% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+25.3 margin based on 3 polls, the last three or fewer.
Is the 2026 Pennsylvania governor's race competitive?
No — the PollingSource polling average rates it Safe D for Democrats.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 Pennsylvania governor's race say?
The most recent poll in our average, from ActiVote (completed October 21, 2026), found Josh Shapiro (D) at 61.5% and Stacy Garrity (R) at 38.5%.
When is the 2026 Pennsylvania governor's race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls, or fewer when fewer exist. One poll sets the rating when it ended in the last 30 days. We do not exclude pollsters. The table lists recent polls, including ones older than those three. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
First-term governor, potential presidential aspirant
Race News
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