2026 Toss-up Races

The 33 races of the 2026 midterms that are too close to call — rated Toss-up by our polling average when a poll ended in the last 30 days, or by the expert consensus (Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections) when none did. See the methodology for how ratings are derived.

Senate Toss-ups (7)

State	Race	Rating
AK Alaska	D Mary PeltolaR Dan S. Sullivan	Toss-up
IA Iowa	D Josh TurekR Ashley Hinson	Toss-up
KS Kansas	D Adam HamiltonR Roger Marshall	Toss-up
ME Maine	D Troy JacksonR Susan Collins	Toss-up
MN Minnesota	D Peggy FlanaganR Michele Tafoya	Toss-up
SC South Carolina	D Annie AndrewsR Darline Graham	Toss-up
TX Texas	D James TalaricoR Ken Paxton	Toss-up

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House Toss-ups (20)

District	Race	2024	Rating
AZ-01 Arizona	D Amish ShahR Jay Feely	—	Toss-up
AZ-06 Arizona	D JoAnna MendozaR Juan Ciscomani	—	Toss-up
CA-22 California	D Randy VillegasR David Valadao	—	Toss-up
CA-47 California	D Dave MinR Jenny Rae Le Roux	—	Toss-up
CO-08 Colorado	D Manny RutinelR Gabe Evans	R+2	Toss-up
FL-22 Florida	D Pia DandiyaR Casey Askar	—	Toss-up
FL-27 Florida	D Eliott RodriguezR María Elvira Salazar	—	Toss-up
GA-11 Georgia	D Chris HardenR John Cowan	—	Toss-up
ME-02 Maine	D Matthew DunlapR Paul LePage	—	Toss-up
MI-07 Michigan	D William LawrenceR Tom Barrett	—	Toss-up
MO-02 Missouri	D Frederick WellmanR Ann Wagner	—	Toss-up
MT-01 Montana	D Sam ForstagR Aaron FlintL Nick Sheedy	—	Toss-up
NY-17 New York	D Cait ConleyR Mike Lawler	—	Toss-up
OH-09 Ohio	D Marcy KapturR Derek Merrin	—	Toss-up
OH-13 Ohio	D Emilia SykesR Carey Coleman	—	Toss-up
PA-08 Pennsylvania	D Paige CognettiR Rob Bresnahan	R+3	Toss-up
SC-01 South Carolina	D Nancy LacoreR Jenny Costa Honeycutt	—	Toss-up
VA-07 Virginia	D Eugene VindmanR Douglas Ollivant	D+2	Toss-up
WA-03 Washington	D Marie Gluesenkamp PerezR John Braun	—	Toss-up
WI-01 Wisconsin	D Mitchell BermanR Bryan Steil	—	Toss-up

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Governor Toss-ups (6)

State	Race	Rating
AZ Arizona	D Katie HobbsR Andy BiggsG Risa LombardoI Teri Hourihan	Toss-up
FL Florida Open	D David JollyR Byron Donalds	Toss-up
GA Georgia Open	D Keisha Lance BottomsR Rick Jackson	Toss-up
NV Nevada	D Aaron FordR Joe Lombardo	Toss-up
OR Oregon	D Tina KotekR Christine Drazan	Toss-up
VT Vermont	D Amanda JanooR Phil Scott	Toss-up

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