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2026 House Elections

All 435 seats up for election

201 Projected 2026 House — 218 for majority 220
155 25 21
14
21 14 185
From current race ratings · Current House: 215D – 220R
Safe D Likely D Lean D Toss-up Lean R Likely R Safe R

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Safe D Likely D Lean D Toss-up Lean R Likely R Safe R Boundaries under litigation

Colors show the race rating (our polls where available, expert consensus otherwise — hover for the source) • Click a district for details • Click a dashed region to zoom

218 Seats Needed for Majority

Likely Dem (25)

Leans Dem (21)

Toss Up (14)

Leans GOP (21)

Likely GOP (14)

Current House: 215D - 220R

215
220
Democrats 218 for majority Republicans

Projected after the 2026 elections: 201D – 220R · 14 toss-ups (from current race ratings)

Latest House Polls

DistrictPollsterDateSampleDemRep
NY-21 SurveyUSA 2026-08-13 612 LV Blake Gendebien 43.00% Anthony Constantino 39.00%
OH-07 Bedrock Polling (D) 2026-08-10 866 LV Brian Poindexter 43.00% Max Miller 35.00%
OH-15 Hart Research (D) partisan·D 2026-08-09 401 LV Don Leonard 37.00% Mike Carey 41.00%
WI-01 Impact Research (D) partisan·D 2026-08-09 400 LV Mitchell Berman 48.00% Bryan Steil 49.00%
NY-21 SurveyUSA 2026-08-08 612 LV Blake Gendebien 43.00% Anthony Constantino 39.00%
FL-13 GQR (D) partisan·D 2026-08-06 500 LV Leela Gray 44.00% Anna 47.00%
FL-13 Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) partisan·R 2026-08-06 400 LV Leela Gray 41.00% Anna 49.00%
OH-07 co/efficient (R) partisan·R 2026-08-06 615 LV Brian Poindexter 47.00% Max Miller 33.00%
AK-AL GBAO (D) partisan·D 2026-08-05 500 LV — Nick Begich III 46.00%
OH-07 Tavern Research (D) partisan·D 2026-08-05 635 LV Brian Poindexter 54.00% Max Miller 46.00%

28 House district poll(s) in the last 30 days. All recent House polls →

Competitive House Races (95 races)

Races rated Toss-up through Likely by the resolved poll-first rating — polled races first, closest spread on top

Toss-up (14)

District Incumbent Rating GOP Candidate DEM Candidate GOP Avg DEM Avg Spread
NY-17 Mike Lawler R Toss-up Mike Lawler (i) Cait Conley 50.0% 45.0% R+5.0
TX-15 Monica De La Cruz R Toss-up Monica De La Cruz (i) Bobby Pulido 45.0% 51.0% D+6.0
AZ-01 Open R Toss-up Jay Feely Amish Shah — — —
AZ-06 Juan Ciscomani R Toss-up Juan Ciscomani (i) JoAnna Mendoza — — —
CA-22 David Valadao R Toss-up David Valadao (i) Randy Villegas — — —
CO-08 Gabe Evans R Toss-up Gabe Evans (i) Manny Rutinel — — —
FL-22 Open Toss-up Casey Askar Pia Dandiya — — —
MI-07 Tom Barrett R Toss-up Tom Barrett (i) William Lawrence — — —
MI-08 Kristen McDonald Rivet D Toss-up Thomas J. Smith Kristen McDonald Rivet (i) — — —
NY-19 Josh Riley D Toss-up Peter Karl Oberacker Jr Josh Riley (i) — — —
OH-13 Emilia Sykes D Toss-up Carey Coleman Emilia Sykes (i) — — —
OR-05 Janelle Bynum D Toss-up Patti Adair Janelle Bynum (i) — — —
PA-07 Ryan Mackenzie R Toss-up Ryan Mackenzie (i) Bob Brooks — — —
VA-07 Eugene Vindman D Toss-up Douglas Ollivant Eugene Vindman (i) — — —

Lean Democrat (21)

District Incumbent Rating GOP Candidate DEM Candidate GOP Avg DEM Avg Spread
NY-21 Open R Lean D Anthony Thomas Constantino Blake Gendebien 39.0% 43.0% D+4.0
NY-18 Pat Ryan D Lean D Jackie Mary Auringer Pat Ryan (i) 39.0% 53.0% D+14.0
CA-13 Adam Gray D Lean D Kevin J Lincoln II Adam Gray (i) — — —
CA-21 Jim Costa D Lean D Kyle Kirkland Jim Costa (i) — — —
CA-41 Open R Lean D Mitch Clemmons Linda Sánchez — — —
CA-45 Derek Tran D Lean D Chuong V. Vo Derek Tran (i) — — —
CA-48 Open R Lean D Jim Desmond Marni von Wilpert — — —
IL-14 Lauren Underwood D Lean D James Thomas Marter Lauren Underwood (i) — — —
IL-17 Eric Sorensen D Lean D Dillan Vancil Eric Sorensen (i) — — —
KS-03 Sharice Davids D Lean D Eric Jenkins Sharice Davids (i) — — —
ME-02 Open D Lean D Paul LePage Matthew Dunlap — — —
MI-03 Hillary Scholten D Lean D Terri Deboer Hillary Scholten (i) — — —
MN-02 Angie Craig D Lean D TBD Matt Little — — —
NM-02 Gabe Vasquez D Lean D Greg Cunningham Gabe Vasquez (i) — — —
NY-03 Tom Suozzi D Lean D Mike LiPetri Tom Suozzi (i) — — —
NY-04 Laura Gillen D Lean D Jeanine Driscoll Laura Gillen (i) — — —
NY-22 John Mannion D Lean D TBD John Mannion (i) — — —
PA-17 Chris Deluzio D Lean D Tony Guy Chris Deluzio (i) — — —
TX-07 Lizzie Fletcher D Lean D Alexander Hale Lizzie Fletcher (i) — — —
WA-03 Marie Gluesenkamp Perez D Lean D John Braun Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (i) — — —
WA-08 Kim Schrier D Lean D TBD TBD — — —

Lean Republican (21)

District Incumbent Rating GOP Candidate DEM Candidate GOP Avg DEM Avg Spread
CA-40 Young Kim R Lean R Ken Calvert TBD — — —
FL-13 Anna Paulina Luna R Lean R TBD Leela J Gray — — —
FL-25 Debbie Wasserman Schultz D Lean R Scott M. Singer Debbie Wasserman Schultz (i) — — —
FL-27 María Elvira Salazar R Lean R María Elvira Salazar (i) Eliott Rodriguez — — —
FL-28 Carlos Giménez R Lean R TBD TBD — — —
LA-06 Cleo Fields D Lean R TBD TBD — — —
NC-01 Don Davis D Lean R Laurie Buckhout Don Davis (i) — — —
NC-14 Tim Moore R Lean R Tim Moore (i) LaKesha Womack — — —
NE-02 Open R Lean R Brinker Harding Denise Powell — — —
NJ-02 Jeff Van Drew R Lean R Jeff Van Drew (i) Zack Mullock — — —
NJ-07 Thomas Kean Jr. R Lean R Thomas Kean Jr. (i) Rebecca Bennett — — —
NY-01 Open R Lean R Lalota Nick Chris Gallant — — —
NY-02 Andrew Garbarino R Lean R Andrew Garbarino (i) TBD — — —
NY-11 Nicole Malliotakis R Lean R Nicole Malliotakis (i) Michael DeCillis — — —
OH-01 Greg Landsman D Lean R Eric Conroy Greg Landsman (i) — — —
PA-01 Brian Fitzpatrick R Lean R Brian Fitzpatrick (i) Bob Harvie — — —
PA-08 Rob Bresnahan R Lean R Rob Bresnahan (i) Paige Cognetti — — —
TX-23 Tony Gonzales R Lean R Brandon Herrera Katy Padilla Stout — — —
TX-28 Henry Cuellar D Lean R Tano Tijerina Henry Cuellar (i) — — —
TX-34 Vicente Gonzalez D Lean R Eric Flores Vicente Gonzalez (i) — — —
VA-02 Jen Kiggans R Lean R Jen Kiggans (i) Elaine Luria — — —

Likely Democrat (25)

District Incumbent Rating GOP Candidate DEM Candidate GOP Avg DEM Avg Spread
OH-07 Max Miller R Likely D Max Miller (i) Brian Poindexter 38.3% 47.0% D+8.7
AZ-04 Greg Stanton D Likely D Zuhdi Jasser Greg Stanton (i) — — —
CA-01 Open R Likely D James Gallagher Mike McGuire — — —
CA-03 Open R Likely D Robb Tucker Ami Bera — — —
CA-06 Open D Likely D TBD Richard Pan — — —
CA-24 Salud Carbajal D Likely D Bob Smith Salud Carbajal (i) — — —
CA-25 Raul Ruiz D Likely D Joe Males Raul Ruiz (i) — — —
CA-47 Dave Min D Likely D Jenny Rae Le Roux Dave Min (i) — — —
CO-06 Jason Crow D Likely D Bemelekot W Tewahade Jason Crow (i) — — —
CO-07 Brittany Pettersen D Likely D Tim Bennett Brittany Pettersen (i) — — —
CT-05 Jahana Hayes D Likely D Chris Shea Jahana Hayes (i) — — —
IL-06 Sean Casten D Likely D Niki Conforti Sean Casten (i) — — —
IL-11 Bill Foster D Likely D Jeff Walter Bill Foster (i) — — —
IL-13 Nikki Budzinski D Likely D Jeff Wilson Nikki Budzinski (i) — — —
MI-11 Open D Likely D TBD Jeremy Moss — — —
MN-03 Kelly Morrison D Likely D Tyler Bass Kelly Morrison (i) — — —
NH-01 Chris Pappas D Likely D TBD TBD — — —
NJ-03 Herb Conaway D Likely D Michael McGuire Herb Conaway (i) — — —
NJ-05 Josh Gottheimer D Likely D TBD Josh Gottheimer (i) — — —
NJ-11 Analilia Mejia D Likely D Joe Hathaway Analilia Mejia (i) — — —
NV-03 Susie Lee D Likely D Martin O'Donnell Susie Lee (i) — — —
NV-04 Steven Horsford D Likely D Cody K Whipple Steven Horsford (i) — — —
OR-06 Andrea Salinas D Likely D David Honorable Russ Andrea Salinas (i) — — —
PA-06 Chrissy Houlahan D Likely D Marty Young Chrissy Houlahan (i) — — —
VA-10 Suhas Subramanyam D Likely D David Beckwith Suhas Subramanyam (i) — — —

Likely Republican (14)

District Incumbent Rating GOP Candidate DEM Candidate GOP Avg DEM Avg Spread
SC-01 Open R Likely R Jenny Costa Honeycutt Nancy Lacore 50.0% 48.0% R+2.0
AL-02 Shomari Figures D Likely R Rhett Marques Shomari Figures (i) — — —
FL-09 Darren Soto D Likely R TBD TBD — — —
FL-14 Kathy Castor D Likely R Mike Beltran TBD — — —
IA-01 Mariannette Miller-Meeks R Likely R Mariannette Miller-Meeks (i) Christina Bohannan — — —
IA-02 Open R Likely R Joe Mitchell Lindsay James — — —
IA-03 Zach Nunn R Likely R Zach Nunn (i) Sarah Trone Garriott — — —
MN-01 Brad Finstad R Likely R Brad Finstad (i) Jacob Johnson — — —
MT-01 Open R Likely R Aaron Flint Sam Forstag — — —
NC-03 Greg Murphy R Likely R Greg Murphy (i) Raymond Smith Jr. — — —
OH-09 Marcy Kaptur D Likely R Derek Merrin Marcy Kaptur (i) — — —
TX-09 Open D Likely R Alex Mealer Leticia Gutierrez — — —
TX-35 Open D Likely R Carlos De La Cruz Jr Johnny Garcia — — —
WI-03 Derrick Van Orden R Likely R Derrick Van Orden (i) Rebecca Cooke — — —

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About House Ratings

A race rating is the 30-day PollingSource average when enough polls exist (Toss-up under 3 points; Lean 3 to under 6; Likely 6 to under 10; Safe 10 or more). One poll never sets the rating by itself. Expert consensus from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections is the fallback when polls are missing. The "2024 margin" is the district's result in the last election, not an input to the rating.

Learn more about our methodology

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