Maine District 2

ME-02 • 2026 Election
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Primary

Democratic Primary

Held June 9, 2026.

CandidateVotes%
Joe Baldacci 24,966 31.7%
Matthew Dunlap 22,933 29.1%
Jordan Wood 22,712 28.8%
Paige Loud 8,194 10.4%

Republican Primary

Held June 9, 2026.

CandidateVotes%
Paul LePage 69,233 100.0%

Full calendar and every race: Maine primary guide

Race Overview

Incumbent
OPEN (Jared Golden)
Party
Democrat
Current Rating
Lean D expert avg
Open Seat
Yes
Cook PVI
R+6

Race Ratings

Cook Political Report

Lean D

Inside Elections

Tilt D
Changed from Lean D on Feb 1

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Leans D
Changed from Lean D on Feb 1

Candidates

Matthew Dunlap

Matthew Dunlap Nominee

Democrat
Total Raised: $1,205,432
Cash on Hand: $228,649
Paul LePage

Paul LePage Nominee

Republican
Total Raised: $2,563,901
Cash on Hand: $1,685,711

Average reflects all polls from the last 30 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →

PollsterDateSampleMoEDemRep
Tulchin Research (D) partisan·D 2026-07-16 600 LV ±4.00 Matt Dunlap 49.00% Paul LePage 48.00%

Questions About This Race

Is the 2026 ME-02 House race competitive?

Yes — the expert consensus rates it Lean D: Democrats are favored, but the race is competitive.

What does the latest poll of the 2026 ME-02 House race say?

The most recent public poll, from Tulchin Research (D) (completed July 16, 2026), found Matt Dunlap (D) at 49% and Paul LePage (R) at 48%.

When is the 2026 ME-02 House race decided?

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

How is the PollingSource average calculated?

The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 30 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.

Independent Expenditures Updated just now

$1,500,360
Total IE Spending
$1,025,463
Support
$474,897
Oppose

Top Spenders

Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →

Race News

No news coverage yet for this race.