Primary
Primary held June 9, 2026.
Democratic Primary
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Baldacci | 24,966 | 31.7% | |
| Matthew Dunlap ✓ | 22,933 | 29.1% | |
| Jordan Wood | 22,712 | 28.8% | |
| Paige Loud | 8,194 | 10.4% |
Republican Primary
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul LePage ✓ | 69,233 | 100.0% |
Full calendar and every race: Maine primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
PollingSource average — trailing average of all polls from the last 90 days.
Candidates
General Election Polling Average
Average reflects all polls from the last 90 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pan Atlantic Research (D) | 2026-05-18 | 418 LV | ±3.70 | Joe Baldacci 49.00% | Paul LePage 41.00% |
| co/efficient (R) partisan·R | 2026-04-28 | 918 LV | ±3.20 | Matt Dunlap 40.00% | Paul LePage 50.00% |
| co/efficient (R) partisan·R | 2026-04-28 | 918 LV | ±3.20 | Joe Baldacci 40.00% | Paul LePage 50.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 ME-02 House race?
Paul LePage leads Joe Baldacci 47% to 43% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+4.0 margin based on 3 polls from the last 90 days.
Is the 2026 ME-02 House race competitive?
Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates it Lean R: Republicans are favored, but the race is competitive. Note: our polling average (Lean R) diverges from the expert consensus (Lean D) — that gap makes this a race to watch.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 ME-02 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from Pan Atlantic Research (D) (completed May 18, 2026), found Joe Baldacci (D) at 49% and Paul LePage (R) at 41%.
When is the 2026 ME-02 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 90 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Independent Expenditures Updated 6 hours ago
Top Spenders
- PROJECT 218 $906,861
- REAL CHANGE PAC $519,816
- NATIONAL NURSES UNITED FOR PATIENT PROTECTION $50,606
- THE CONSERVATIVE CAUCUS DBA AMERICANS FOR CONSTITUTIONAL LIBERTY $16,616
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
Race News
No news coverage yet for this race.