Primary
Democratic Primary
Held June 9, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Baldacci | 24,966 | 31.7% | |
| Matthew Dunlap ✓ | 22,933 | 29.1% | |
| Jordan Wood | 22,712 | 28.8% | |
| Paige Loud | 8,194 | 10.4% |
Republican Primary
Held June 9, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul LePage ✓ | 69,233 | 100.0% |
Full calendar and every race: Maine primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Each point is a poll. The published PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the most recent week of polls whose fieldwork ended in the last 30 days.
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General Election Polling Average
Average is the unweighted mean of the most recent week of polls whose fieldwork ended in the last 30 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research (D) partisan·D D-sponsored | 2026-09-30 | 500 LV | ±4.40 | Matt Dunlap 50.00% | Paul LePage 48.00% |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-09-21 | 627 LV | ±3.90 | Matt Dunlap 51.00% | Paul LePage 45.00% |
| Impact Research (D) partisan·D D-sponsored | 2026-09-12 | 500 LV | Matt Dunlap 49.00% | Paul LePage 49.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 ME-02 House race?
Matthew Dunlap leads Paul LePage 50% to 48% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+2.0 margin based on 1 poll from the most recent week of polls ending in the last 30 days.
Is the 2026 ME-02 House race competitive?
Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates this race a Toss-up, the most competitive category.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 ME-02 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from Tulchin Research (D) (completed September 30, 2026), found Matt Dunlap (D) at 50% and Paul LePage (R) at 48%.
When is the 2026 ME-02 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 30 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Independent Expenditures Updated just now
Top Spenders
- HMP Dem-aligned $2,114,989
- PROJECT 218 Dem-aligned $906,861
- REAL CHANGE PAC GOP-aligned $519,816
- NATIONAL NURSES UNITED FOR PATIENT PROTECTION Dem-aligned $435,606
- AMERICA PAC GOP-aligned $339,482
- CFFE PAC Dem-aligned $203,931
- NO GOING BACK PAC INC. GOP-aligned $94,753
- COMMUNITY CHANGE VOTERS Dem-aligned $30,156
- THE CONSERVATIVE CAUCUS DBA AMERICANS FOR CONSTITUTIONAL LIBERTY GOP-aligned $20,295
- PROGRESSIVE TURNOUT PROJECT Dem-aligned $14,535
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
Race News
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