Primary
Democratic Primary
Held June 9, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Baldacci | 24,966 | 31.7% | |
| Matthew Dunlap ✓ | 22,933 | 29.1% | |
| Jordan Wood | 22,712 | 28.8% | |
| Paige Loud | 8,194 | 10.4% |
Republican Primary
Held June 9, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul LePage ✓ | 69,233 | 100.0% |
Full calendar and every race: Maine primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
The right edge is that same average of the last three polls. This is an average, not a forecast.
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General Election Polling Average
Average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls. Fewer than three uses the polls that exist. The rating uses that average when the newest poll ended in the last 30 days. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research (D) partisan·D | 2026-10-14 | 500 LV | ±4.38 | Matt Dunlap 50.00% | Paul LePage 46.00% |
| Tulchin Research (D) partisan·D D-sponsored | 2026-09-30 | 500 LV | ±4.40 | Matt Dunlap 50.00% | Paul LePage 48.00% |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-09-21 | 627 LV | ±3.90 | Matt Dunlap 51.00% | Paul LePage 45.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 ME-02 House race?
Matthew Dunlap leads Paul LePage 50.3% to 46.3% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+4.0 margin based on 3 polls, the last three or fewer.
Is the 2026 ME-02 House race competitive?
Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates it Lean D, the current rating band, and the race is competitive. Note: our polling average (Lean D) diverges from the expert consensus (Tilt R) — that gap makes this a race to watch.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 ME-02 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from Tulchin Research (D) (completed October 14, 2026), found Matt Dunlap (D) at 50% and Paul LePage (R) at 46%.
When is the 2026 ME-02 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls, or fewer when fewer exist. One poll sets the rating when it ended in the last 30 days. We do not exclude pollsters. The table lists recent polls, including ones older than those three. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Independent Expenditures Updated just now
Top Spenders
- HMP Dem-aligned $3,360,235
- PROJECT 218 Dem-aligned $906,861
- REAL CHANGE PAC GOP-aligned $519,816
- NATIONAL NURSES UNITED FOR PATIENT PROTECTION Dem-aligned $435,606
- AMERICA PAC GOP-aligned $364,732
- POVERTY TO PROSPERITY GOP-aligned $290,000
- CFFE PAC Dem-aligned $210,106
- NO GOING BACK PAC INC. GOP-aligned $94,753
- THE CONSERVATIVE CAUCUS DBA AMERICANS FOR CONSTITUTIONAL LIBERTY GOP-aligned $52,846
- COMMUNITY CHANGE VOTERS Dem-aligned $45,386
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
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