Florida District 7

FL-07 • 2026 Election
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Primary

Primary election: Tuesday, August 18, 2026

Full calendar and every race: Florida primary guide

Race Overview

Incumbent
Cory Mills
Party
Republican
Current Rating
Toss-up our polls experts: Safe R
Open Seat
No
Cook PVI
R+10

PollingSource Rating

Toss-up
Our polling average D+2.0 · 1 polls

General Election Polling Trend

PollingSource average — trailing average of all polls from the last 90 days.

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Expert Ratings

Consensus Rating

Safe R

Individual forecaster ratings will be updated as they become available.

Candidates

Cory Mills

Cory Mills Incumbent

Republican
Total Raised: $864,851
Cash on Hand: $81,082

Alan Grayson

Democrat
Total Raised: $212,164
Cash on Hand: $120,572

Bale Dalton

Democrat
Total Raised: $1,201,455
Cash on Hand: $763,409

Jennifer Adams

Democrat
Total Raised: $35,056
Cash on Hand: $5,137

Marialana Kinter

Democrat
Total Raised: $509,601
Cash on Hand: $113,903
Noah Widmann

Noah Widmann

Democrat
Total Raised: $0
Cash on Hand: $0

Michael Johnson

Republican
Total Raised: $44,695
Cash on Hand: $9,433

Ryan Elijah

Republican
Total Raised: $301,662
Cash on Hand: $267,871

Sarah Ulrich

Republican
Total Raised: $17,859
Cash on Hand: $1,698

General Election Polling Average

Democrat
41.0%
Republican
39.0%
Margin
D+2.0
Last Poll
May 21, 2026

Average reflects all polls from the last 90 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →

PollsterDateSampleMoEDemRep
Public Policy Polling (D) partisan·D ±2.0 2026-05-21 570 RV ±4.10 Bale Dalton 41.00% Cory Mills 39.00%

Questions About This Race

Who is winning the 2026 FL-07 House race?

Bale Dalton leads Cory Mills 41% to 39% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+2.0 margin based on 1 poll from the last 90 days.

Is the 2026 FL-07 House race competitive?

Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates this race a Toss-up, the most competitive category.

What does the latest poll of the 2026 FL-07 House race say?

The most recent public poll, from Public Policy Polling (D) (completed May 21, 2026), found Bale Dalton (D) at 41% and Cory Mills (R) at 39%.

When is the 2026 FL-07 House race decided?

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

How is the PollingSource average calculated?

The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 90 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.

Race News

No news coverage yet for this race.