PollingSource added a substantial batch of archival governor, House and Senate polling today, but the freshest signal comes from a cluster of recent-fieldwork surveys in New Hampshire and Maine that show Republican Senate challengers struggling to close the gap against Democratic incumbents. Separately, Michigan's Senate primary field narrowed after a Democratic candidate withdrew, and Speaker Mike Johnson escalated national Republican messaging tying Democratic primary winners to democratic socialism.
New Hampshire Senate: Pappas Holds Wide Lead in Fresh Polling
Two recent-fieldwork polls in the New Hampshire Senate race show Democratic Representative Chris Pappas leading Republican Scott Brown by double digits. A University of New Hampshire poll completed June 23 put Pappas ahead 52-38, while Saint Anselm College's June 25 survey of 1,614 registered voters found a 48-36 edge. Both track closely with archival polling dating to last fall, when Pappas led Brown by margins of 13 to 15 points across multiple pollsters, suggesting a stable rather than shifting race as the general election approaches.
Maine Senate: Platner Maintains Edge Over Collins in Latest Survey
In the Maine Senate race, Democrat Graham Platner continues to outpace Republican incumbent Susan Collins across a wide array of pollsters added to the archive today, with results ranging from a 3-point Platner lead in a March Echelon Insights survey to a 9-point advantage in a May University of New Hampshire poll. Results vary by pollster house effect — Democratic-aligned firms and Collins-aligned Republican pollsters both show tighter margins than average — but Platner has led in nearly every survey logged since December, when a Workbench Strategy poll had the race tied at 50-50.
Michigan Senate: McMorrow Exits Democratic Primary
Democrat Mallory McMorrow suspended her campaign for Michigan's open Senate seat Sunday, citing weak polling numbers. Her exit narrows the Democratic field as it heads toward a nomination fight likely to settle on Abdul El-Sayed, who has posted leads over Republican Mike Rogers in five of the last six polls added today, including a 47-42 edge in a June Mitchell Research survey and a 46-41 result from Tulchin Research the same week. Earlier polling from Glengariff Group and TIPP Insights had shown tighter races or ties, underscoring volatility in a contest both parties are treating as competitive.
National Messaging: Johnson Targets Democratic Socialist Wins
Speaker Mike Johnson warned Sunday of what he called a proliferation of "Mamdanis" — a reference to New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani — within the Democratic Party, citing recent primary victories by candidates aligned with democratic socialism. The comments came as Maryland Governor Wes Moore separately distanced himself from the same ideological label in a Fox News interview, rejecting specific policy proposals including prison abolition. The dual developments suggest Democratic officeholders and Republican leadership are each moving to define the party's leftward primary wins ahead of the midterms, though for different audiences.
What to watch tomorrow: whether additional Democratic officials respond to Johnson's remarks, and whether Michigan's Senate primary field sees further movement following McMorrow's withdrawal.
Polls
| AZ Governor Noble Predictive Insights (n=1026 RV) | Katie Hobbs 40.00% · Andy Biggs 38.00% |
| AZ Governor Pulse Decision Science (R) (n=501 LV) | Katie Hobbs 46.00% · Andy Biggs 42.00% |
| AZ Governor Noble Predictive Insights (n=1006 RV) | Katie Hobbs 40.00% · Andy Biggs 38.00% |
| AZ Governor Kreate Strategies (R) (n=924 LV) | Katie Hobbs 43.00% · Andy Biggs 44.00% |
| AZ Governor Noble Predictive Insights (n=948 RV) | Katie Hobbs 39.00% · Andy Biggs 37.00% |
| CA Governor Berkeley IGS (n=8578 RV) | Xavier Becerra 52.00% · Steve Hilton 31.00% |
| CT Governor University of New Hampshire (n=828 LV) | Ned Lamont 49.00% · Ryan Fazio 36.00% |
| CT Governor OnMessage Inc. (R) (n=600 LV) | Ned Lamont 50.00% · Erin Stewart 42.00% |
Follow the Money
Michigan's 7th District: Fundraising Splits Along Party Lines
Combined Republican receipts across the listed Michigan candidates total roughly 12.3 million against 15.7 million for Democrats, though the comparison spans multiple districts rather than a single race. In the 7th District matchup, Republican Thomas Barrett has raised 5 million with 2.8 million on hand, while Democrat Kristen Mcdonald Rivet has banked 4.4 million and retains 3.4 million cash on hand despite spending far less than Barrett to date.
The disbursement gap is notable: Barrett has already spent 2.2 million against Mcdonald Rivet's 967,000, suggesting an earlier and heavier advertising push on the Republican side. That leaves Mcdonald Rivet with the larger reserve heading into the fall, a potential advantage in a race Cook Political Report rates Toss Up.
Elsewhere in the state, incumbents show contrasting postures. Lisa Mcclain has burned through 3.6 million of her 4.3 million raised, leaving just 1.3 million on hand, while Rashida Tlaib sits on 4.7 million despite lower total receipts, reflecting minimal spending in a noncompetitive seat.
Headlines
- McMorrow suspends campaign for Michigan Senate seat (The Hill)
Democratic Michigan Senate candidate Mallory McMorrow suspended her campaign on Sunday, citing low polling numbers in... - Wes Moore distances from democratic socialist ideas: ‘I do not prescribe to an ideology’ (The Hill)
Maryland Gov. Wes Moore (D) distanced himself from democratic socialist ideology during a Fox News interview, stating... - Mike Johnson on democratic socialist candidates: ‘There are many Mamdanis popping up’ (The Hill)
Speaker Mike Johnson warned of a rising trend of democratic socialist candidates winning Democratic primaries, citing...
What to Watch
House Battlegrounds in Focus
No debates or filings are scheduled in the coming week, but ratings shifts already point to where the House majority will be decided. Four toss-up races anchor the map: Arizona's 1st District, Arizona's 6th, and California's 13th and 22nd Districts. Watch for updated fundraising disclosures and any independent polling that could nudge these into lean territory before the next ratings cycle.
California's Lean-R Districts
Cook Political Report and Inside Elections both classify California's 45th District and the 47th as Lean Republican, a signal that Democratic recruitment and turnout operations in Orange County will face a steep climb. Colorado's 8th District carries the same rating; movement there often tracks statewide enthusiasm more than local dynamics.
Senate Contests to Track
In the Senate, Georgia's Senate race is rated Lean Democratic, while Florida's Senate race sits at Likely Republican. Neither rating suggests an imminent shift, but both merit attention if new polling emerges this week.
New Polls (7)
Added to the Archive (112)
Older polls newly added to the PollingSource database — fieldwork predates the last two weeks. Full results on each race page.
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