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Wednesday, September 30, 2026

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Republican candidates lead in Florida's 2026 governor and Senate races according to a Stetson University poll

Polls

National Generic View race View race
Economist/YouGov (n=1007 LV)
Democrats 53% · Republicans 38%
National Generic View race View race
Quinnipiac (n=1032 RV)
Democrats 51% · Republicans 39%
National Generic View race View race
Harvard-Harris
Democrats 51% · Republicans 49%
MA Governor View race View race
MassINC Polling Group (n=800 LV)
Maura Healey 51% · Mike Minogue 30%
MI Governor View race View race
Marist University (n=1235 RV)
Jocelyn Benson 53% · John James 41%
MI Governor View race View race
Cygnal/Beacon Research (n=600 LV)
Jocelyn Benson 45% · John James 38%
MI Governor View race View race
Beacon Research (D)/ Cygnal (R) (n=600 LV)
Jocelyn Benson 45% · John James 38%
NE Governor View race View race
Lake Research Partners (D)
Lynne Walz 40% · Jim Pillen 40%

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Follow the Money

The Follow the Money section was withheld by a pre-send data check — see pollingsource.com for verified data.

Headlines

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What to Watch

Governor's Races: Three Toss-Ups Anchor the Map

Ten governor's races are on the board, with the closest contests concentrated in Arizona, Florida, and Georgia, all rated Toss-up. These three will draw the most attention for turnout patterns and late polling movement, since none carries a clear directional lean.

Lean and Likely Contests Worth Tracking

Kansas sits at Lean R, while Minnesota and New Mexico are rated Lean D — each close enough that a shift in the ratings would be notable. Iowa and Michigan stand at Likely D, with Nebraska and New Hampshire at Likely R. These are less competitive than the toss-ups but worth watching for any tightening.

No scheduled events are listed for the coming week. Readers should watch the toss-up states most closely, as movement there is most likely to reshape the overall map.

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New Polls (24)

Florida Senate View race 1 poll
Sep 27, 2026 Change Research (D) n=1,063 LV · ±2.8 Angie Nixon 47% – Ashley Moody 48% R+1
Massachusetts Senate View race 1 poll
Sep 22, 2026 MassINC Polling Group n=800 LV · ±4 Ed Markey 52% – John Deaton 26% D+26
Michigan Senate View race 2 polls
Sep 27, 2026 Marist University n=1,235 RV · ±3.8 Abdul El-Sayed 51% – Mike Rogers 44% D+7
Sep 21, 2026 Cygnal (R)/Beacon Research (D) n=600 LV · ±4 Abdul El-Sayed 45% – Mike Rogers 40% D+5
Minnesota Senate View race 1 poll
Sep 29, 2026 InsiderAdvantage (R) n=1,200 LV · ±3 Peggy Flanagan 46% – Michele Tafoya 45% D+1
North Carolina Senate View race 1 poll
Sep 20, 2026 Fabrizio/Anzalone n=1,115 LV · ±2.9 Cooper 53% – Whatley 42% D+11
Ohio Senate View race 3 polls
Sep 27, 2026 Big Data Poll (R) n=680 LV · ±4 Sherrod Brown 46% – Jon Husted 43% D+3
Sep 27, 2026 Big Data Poll n=678 LV · ±4 Brown 46% – Husted 41% D+5
Sep 27, 2026 Marist n=1,298 RV · ±3.8 Brown 51% – Husted 43% D+8
Texas Senate View race 2 polls
Sep 27, 2026 Pulse Decision Science (R) n=800 LV · ±3.5 James Talarico 45% – Ken Paxton 48% R+3
Sep 26, 2026 Big Data Poll n=698 LV · ±4 James Talarico 47% – Ken Paxton 45% D+2
Massachusetts Governor View race 1 poll
Sep 22, 2026 MassINC Polling Group n=800 LV · ±4 Maura Healey 51% – Mike Minogue 30% D+21
Michigan Governor View race 2 polls
Sep 27, 2026 Marist University n=1,235 RV · ±3.8 Jocelyn Benson 53% – John James 41% D+12
Sep 21, 2026 Beacon Research (D)/ Cygnal (R) n=600 LV · ±4 Jocelyn Benson 45% – John James 38% D+7
Ohio Governor View race 3 polls
Sep 27, 2026 Suffolk University n=500 LV · ±4.4 Amy Acton 50% – Vivek Ramaswamy 41% D+9
Sep 27, 2026 Big Data Poll (R) n=680 LV · ±4 Amy Acton 47% – Vivek Ramaswamy 48% R+1
Sep 27, 2026 Marist n=1,298 RV · ±3.8 Acton 50% – Ramaswamy 44% D+6
Rhode Island Governor View race 1 poll
Sep 25, 2026 Opinion Diagnostics n=800 LV · ±3.5 Helena Foulkes 41% – Aaron Guckian 19% D+22
Montana CD-01 View race 1 poll
Sep 24, 2026 American Pulse n=314 LV Sam Forstag 45% – Aaron Flint 46% R+1
Ohio CD-09 View race 1 poll
Sep 23, 2026 DCCC Analytics Department n=481 LV · ±4.5 Marcy Kaptur 48% – Derek Merrin 48% Even
Wisconsin CD-01 View race 1 poll
Sep 23, 2026 DCCC Analytics Department n=495 LV · ±4.4 Mitchell Berman 48% – Bryan Steil 48% Even
Generic View race 3 polls
Sep 28, 2026 Harvard-Harris Democrats 51% – Republicans 49% D+2
Sep 28, 2026 Economist/YouGov n=1,007 LV Democrats 53% – Republicans 38% D+15
Sep 27, 2026 Quinnipiac n=1,032 RV Democrats 51% – Republicans 39% D+12

Added to the Archive (2)

Older polls newly added to the PollingSource database — fieldwork predates the last two weeks. Full results on each race page.

Sep 2026 Nebraska Governor View race 1 poll added
Aug 2026 Texas CD-15 View race 1 poll added

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