Pennsylvania's governor's race drew the most decisive numbers of the day, while Maine's Senate contest tightened across three separate pollsters and a new California Supreme Court ruling settled a dispute over seized ballots in that state's governor's race. Governors' races in six states and a batch of Senate contests also received fresh polling, filling out the picture of a map that remains competitive in the closest-fought states even as several others look increasingly settled.
Pennsylvania Governor: Shapiro Holds a Wide Lead
A New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University poll completed September 22 shows Democrat Josh Shapiro leading Republican Stacy Garrity 58% to 38% among 615 likely voters in the Pennsylvania governor's race. The 20-point margin is among the widest of any gubernatorial survey released this week and leaves little ambiguity about the state of the race heading into the fall.
Maine: Collins-Jackson Senate Race Narrows Across Pollsters
Three surveys completed within the past two weeks show the Maine Senate race inside the margin of error. A University of New Hampshire poll completed September 21 has Democrat Troy Jackson leading Republican Susan Collins, the incumbent, 51% to 47% among 1,312 likely voters. A New York Times/Siena University poll from the same period shows Collins ahead 49% to 46%, and a Quantus survey completed September 15 has the race even closer, with Collins at 47.6% and Jackson at 47.4%. PollingSource rates the race a toss-up, and the spread of results — from a 4-point Jackson lead to a narrow Collins edge — reflects a genuinely close contest rather than pollster disagreement over direction. The same University of New Hampshire poll also found Democrat Hannah Pingree leading Republican Bobby Charles 48% to 40% in the state's governor's race, a race rated Safe D.
California: Court Orders Return of Seized Ballots
The California Supreme Court ruled that Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a former candidate in the state's governor's race, must return roughly 650,000 ballots he had seized, finding the action unlawful under state election law. The court held that voted ballots cannot be removed from election officials' custody under any circumstances. Separately, a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll completed September 20 shows Democrat Xavier Becerra leading Republican Steve Hilton 58% to 33% among 4,512 likely voters in that race, which PollingSource rates Safe D.
Kansas: Both Statewide Races Inside Single Digits
A Wedgewood Polls survey completed September 24 shows the Kansas Senate race at 50% for Democrat Adam Hamilton to 48% for Republican Roger Marshall, the incumbent, among 500 likely voters. The same poll has Republican Ty Masterson leading Democrat Cindy Holscher 52% to 48% in the governor's race. Separately, Arch Naramore, who challenged Marshall in this year's Republican primary, endorsed Hamilton, a Democrat, in the Senate race. PollingSource rates the Senate contest a toss-up and the governor's race Likely R.
Tomorrow, watch for additional polling out of Georgia and North Carolina, where Democrats currently hold Likely D ratings in both Senate races, and for any follow-up on the Nebraska Senate contest after leaked recordings of independent candidate Dan Osborn's comments about Trump voters drew scrutiny this week.
Polls
| National Generic View race Emerson (n=1000 LV) | Democrats 53% · Republicans 42% |
| National Generic View race Quantus (n=1389 LV) | Democrats 50.3% · Republicans 41.7% |
| CA Governor View race UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (n=4512 LV) | Xavier Becerra 58% · Steve Hilton 33% |
| CT Governor View race University of New Hampshire (n=540 LV) | Ned Lamont 55% · Ryan Fazio 38% |
| FL Governor View race Stetson University (n=830 LV) | David Jolly 39% · Byron Donalds 51% |
| GA Governor View race Big Data Poll (R) (n=678 LV) | Keisha Lance Bottoms 50% · Rick Jackson 50% |
| KS Governor View race Wedgewood Polls (n=500 LV) | Cindy Holscher 48% · Ty Masterson 52% |
| MA Governor View race University of New Hampshire (n=564 LV) | Maura Healey 54% · Mike Minogue 38% |
Follow the Money
New Jersey House Fundraising: A Crowded Field of Democratic War Chests
Money in New Jersey's House delegation is concentrated among Democratic incumbents with years of fundraising infrastructure. Josh Gottheimer, a Democrat, reported $12.77 million cash on hand against $4.77 million in receipts — a reserve far exceeding any other candidate in the dataset, alongside heavy disbursements of $12.7 million. Frank Pallone, also a Democrat, sits on $3.07 million, while Donald Norcross holds $2.37 million.
On the Republican side, Thomas Kean Jr. leads with $3.63 million on hand from $4.89 million raised, outpacing fellow Republican Jeff Van Drew's $1.54 million. Democrat Rebecca Bennett raised $4.27 million but retains just $1.45 million after $2.83 million in spending, while Analilia Mejia, another Democrat, has nearly exhausted her funds, holding only $27,475 after $1.8 million in outlays.
The disparity in cash reserves — from Gottheimer's eight-figure balance to Mejia's near-zero position — reflects differing stages of these campaigns' spending cycles rather than a single race dynamic, since the data spans multiple contests across the state's delegation.
Headlines
- National Democrats to stump in Florida with House candidates in battleground seats (Florida Politics)
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), led by chair Suzan DelBene, is launching a campaign effort in... - The Problem With Potemkin Democrat Candidates (RealClearPolitics)
Independent Nebraska Senate candidate Dan Osborn faces controversy after leaked recordings reveal him making disparag... - Georgia General Assembly Candidate Voted in 2 Different States: AJC Report (Daily Signal)
A Democratic candidate for Georgia's House District 161, David Dillie, voted in both Nevada and Georgia primary elect...
What to Watch
Governors' Races Worth Tracking
No debates or filing deadlines are on the calendar for the coming week, but three contests remain in true toss-up territory and merit close attention as new polling arrives. The Arizona governor's race, the Georgia governor's race, and the Nevada governor's race are all rated toss-up, meaning any fresh survey movement in these three states carries more signal than elsewhere on the map.
One tier out, the Florida governor's race leans Republican while the New Mexico governor's race leans Democratic — both closer than their "likely" counterparts in Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, and Nebraska, where incumbent-party advantages appear more settled. Watch for whether any lean-rated contest tightens into toss-up territory in the days ahead.
New Polls (41)
Rating Changes
PollingSource Poll Average: Florida Governor N/A → Lean R
PollingSource Poll Average: Kansas Governor N/A → Likely R
PollingSource Poll Average: Vermont Governor N/A → Likely D
PollingSource Poll Average: Connecticut Governor N/A → Safe D
PollingSource Poll Average: Florida Senate N/A → Lean R
PollingSource Poll Average: Kansas Senate N/A → Toss-up
PollingSource Poll Average: Maine House CD-02 N/A → Lean D
PollingSource Poll Average: Pennsylvania House CD-10 N/A → Likely R
PollingSource Poll Average: Montana Senate N/A → Safe R
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