The Supreme Court's rejection of Missouri's Republican-drawn congressional map is the day's most consequential development, forcing the state back to its 2022 lines for November and denying the GOP a redistricting gain it had been counting on in its push for House seats. Beyond that ruling, fresh polling out of Michigan, Georgia and Texas shows several marquee races still splitting along pollster lines, while Florida's governor's race is drawing conflicting reads from forecasters and prediction markets alike.
Missouri Redistricting: Supreme Court Rejects GOP Map for a Second Time
The Supreme Court blocked Missouri Republicans from using their preferred 7-1 congressional map for the November election, ruling the state must revert to its 2022 district lines. The decision marks another defeat in the state's ongoing redistricting fight and removes a map Republicans had hoped would improve their odds of picking up a House seat. With the 2022 lines now locked in for this cycle, the ruling narrows the range of paths Republicans have to expand their House majority through redistricting alone.
Michigan: Governor and Senate Races Split by Pollster
Two surveys of the Michigan governor's race completed within days of each other reach different conclusions. A New York Times/Siena University poll completed September 22 shows Democrat Jocelyn Benson leading Republican John James 48% to 43% among 605 likely voters, while a Torchlight Strategies survey completed September 19 shows the race nearly even, Benson at 42% to James's 41%, in a sample of 643. The pattern repeats in the Michigan Senate race, where Torchlight has Republican Mike Rogers edging Democrat Abdul El-Sayed 44% to 43%, while a Big Data Poll completed September 24 shows El-Sayed ahead 47% to 42%. PollingSource rates the Senate race a toss-up; the governor's race is rated Likely D, though the gap between this week's two surveys is wide enough to warrant caution.
Georgia: Governor's Race Tight, Senate Race Diverges by Pollster
In the Georgia governor's race, an InsiderAdvantage poll completed September 23 shows Republican Rick Jackson leading Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms 48% to 46%, while a same-day Big Data Poll has the race tied at 50% apiece among 712 registered voters. PollingSource rates the race a toss-up. The Georgia Senate race shows more separation: InsiderAdvantage puts Democrat Jon Ossoff ahead of Republican Mike Collins 50% to 42%, and Big Data Poll shows Ossoff leading 51% to 40%. That race is rated Likely D, a notably different trajectory from the governor's contest despite both being surveyed by the same pollsters on the same days.
Florida Governor: Forecasters and Markets Disagree
Decision Desk has labeled the Florida governor's race a toss-up, but prediction market traders on Kalshi give Republican Byron Donalds a 77% probability of winning. A Stetson University poll completed September 21 shows Donalds leading Democrat David Jolly 51% to 39% among 830 likely voters, a wider margin than the toss-up label would suggest. The gap between the analytical rating and both the polling and the betting markets underscores how differently observers are reading the same contest.
Watch tomorrow for reaction to the Missouri ruling from state election officials and whether additional pollsters weigh in on Michigan and Georgia to help resolve this week's divergent numbers.
Polls
| CA Governor View race View race University of California Berkeley Jack Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research/Verasight/TrueDot (n=1983 LV) | Xavier Becerra 54% · Steve Hilton 36% |
| FL Governor View race View race Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research (n=830 LV) | David Jolly 39% · Byron Donalds 51% |
| GA Governor View race View race InsiderAdvantage (R) (n=1200 LV) | Keisha Lance Bottoms 46% · Rick Jackson 48% |
| GA Governor View race View race Big Data Poll (R) (n=712 RV) | Keisha Lance Bottoms 50% · Rick Jackson 50% |
| ME Governor View race View race New York Times/Portland Press Herald/ Siena University (n=619 LV) | Hannah Pingree 47% · Bobby Charles 34% |
| ME Governor View race View race The New York Times/Siena University (n=619 LV) | Hannah Pingree 47% · Bobby Charles 34% |
| MI Governor View race View race Torchlight Strategies (R) (n=643 LV) | Jocelyn Benson 42% · John James 41% |
| MI Governor View race View race New York Times/Siena University (n=605 LV) | Jocelyn Benson 48% · John James 43% |
Follow the Money
Michigan House Money Race: McDonald Rivet Banks the Most Cash
Among Michigan House candidates in FEC filings, Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet holds the largest reserve, reporting $4.25 million cash on hand against $5.64 million raised and just $1.41 million spent so far. That spending restraint gives her the most flexibility of any candidate in the state's House delegation heading into the stretch run.
Republican Tom Barrett raised the most of any Michigan House candidate at $6.31 million and retains $2.87 million on hand, but his $3.46 million in disbursements outpaces McDonald Rivet's spending by a wide margin. Republican Lisa McClain has burned through the most cash relative to receipts, spending $4.31 million of her $5.24 million haul and leaving just $1.54 million banked.
Democrat Rashida Tlaib has already spent more than she's raised this period — $3.59 million against $2.76 million in receipts — though $3.43 million on hand from prior fundraising keeps her reserve competitive with the top spenders in the group.
Headlines
- Scott M. Singer nabs endorsement from National Association of Police Organizations (Florida Politics)
Republican congressional candidate Scott M. Singer has secured an endorsement from the National Association of Police Or... - Francesca Hong says she regrets CNN interview about Thanksgiving (The Hill)
Francesca Hong, a former democratic socialist candidate in Wisconsin's gubernatorial race, expressed regret Friday ov... - Shapiro Walks Back Proposed Rule Already Rejected Twice by Voters (Daily Signal)
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro retracted a proposed policy that would have allowed government health officials to...
What to Watch
Governor's Races to Watch
No debates or filing deadlines are on the calendar in the next seven days, but three governor's races currently rated Toss-up warrant close attention as polling continues to develop: Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. Each remains too close to call, and any new survey movement in these three states will shape the broader national picture for the cycle.
Beyond the toss-ups, watch for shifts in races currently rated Lean. Florida sits at Lean R, while New Mexico is Lean D — both close enough that a polling swing could move them into more competitive territory.
The remaining contests — Iowa and Michigan and Minnesota (Likely D), plus Kansas and Nebraska (Likely R) — are less competitive for now, but merit a periodic check for any rating changes as new data arrives.
New Polls (19)
Added to the Archive (1)
Older polls newly added to the PollingSource database — fieldwork predates the last two weeks. Full results on each race page.
Rating Changes
PollingSource Poll Average: Georgia Governor N/A → Toss-up
PollingSource Poll Average: Maine Governor N/A → Safe D
PollingSource Poll Average: New Hampshire Governor N/A → Safe R
PollingSource Poll Average: Georgia Senate N/A → Likely D
PollingSource Poll Average: North Carolina Senate N/A → Likely D
PollingSource Poll Average: Ohio Senate N/A → Toss-up
PollingSource Poll Average: Nevada House CD-02 N/A → Likely R
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