Maine's two statewide races drew fresh Marist University polling today showing Democrats ahead in both contests, while a Trump-Cotton public feud over daylight saving time legislation introduced a new wrinkle into the Arkansas Senate landscape. Separately, the Texas Senate race saw a notable intra-party moment as Representative Jasmine Crockett affirmed her support for the Democratic nominee who defeated her in the primary.
Maine: Marist Survey Shows Democrats Leading Both Statewide Races
A Marist University poll completed October 4 found Democrat Troy Jackson leading Republican Susan Collins, the incumbent, 51% to 47% in the Maine Senate race, among registered voters. A separate Maine People's Resource Center survey completed September 29 showed a tighter 49%-47% Jackson edge among likely voters, suggesting the race remains closer than the Marist topline alone would indicate. In the governor's race, the same Marist poll put Democrat Hannah Pingree ahead of Republican Bobby Charles 52% to 40% in the Maine governor's race, a wider margin consistent with PollingSource's Safe D rating for that contest. PollingSource rates the Senate race a toss-up.
Arkansas: Trump-Cotton Feud Spills Into Senate Politics
President Trump publicly criticized Senator Tom Cotton over a stalled daylight saving time bill, posting Cotton's cellphone number on Truth Social in an escalation of tensions between the two Republicans. The dispute centers on legislative disagreement rather than electoral positioning, but The Hill reported it could complicate Cotton's reelection prospects in the Arkansas Senate race and signals friction ahead as the chamber takes up daylight saving time legislation. No new polling of the Arkansas race accompanied the story.
Texas Senate: Crockett Backs Talarico After Primary Loss
Representative Jasmine Crockett said she supports "all Democrats" on the Texas ballot, explicitly naming James Talarico, the Democratic nominee who defeated her in the Senate primary. Crockett said she endorsed Talarico the day after the primary. The statement comes as Fox News polling completed September 28 showed Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 51% to 49% in the Texas Senate race among an unspecified sample.
Ohio: Siena Poll Shows Democrats Ahead in Both Statewide Contests
A New York Times/Siena College poll completed October 1 showed Democrat Amy Acton leading Republican Vivek Ramaswamy 49% to 45% in the Ohio governor's race, with a sample of 616 likely voters. The same survey found Democrat Sherrod Brown leading Republican Jon Husted 49% to 46% in the Ohio Senate race. Both margins sit within range of each other, suggesting the statewide environment in Ohio is moving in tandem across offices rather than diverging by race.
Watch tomorrow for any response from Cotton's camp to the Trump dispute and whether it affects his standing in Arkansas polling, along with additional movement in the Michigan Senate race, where Mitchell Research's latest survey keeps El-Sayed ahead of Rogers 46% to 41%.
Polls
| National Generic View race View race Morning Consult | Democrats 50% · Republicans 43% |
| National Generic View race View race Rasmussen Reports (n=1794 LV) | Democrats 47% · Republicans 44% |
| ME Governor View race View race Marist University (n=1505 RV) | Hannah Pingree 52% · Bobby Charles 40% |
| NM Governor View race View race SurveyUSA (n=567 RV) | Deb Haaland 47% · Gregg Hull 41% |
| OH Governor View race View race The New York Times/Siena College (n=616 LV) | Amy Acton 49% · Vivek Ramaswamy 45% |
| FL-16 House View race Public Policy Polling (D) (n=530 RV) | Kelly Kirschner 39% · Sydney Gruters 43% |
| ME Senate View race View race Marist University (n=1505 RV) | Troy Jackson 51% · Susan Collins 47% |
| ME Senate View race View race Maine People's Resource Center (n=684 LV) | Troy Jackson 49% · Susan Collins 47% |
Headlines
- Trump’s feud with Cotton snaps heads in the Senate (The Hill)
President Trump publicly criticized Sen. Tom Cotton over a stalled daylight saving time bill by posting Cotton's cell... - Colorado voters to decide whether there will be a Democratic supermajority in the state Senate (Ballotpedia News)
Colorado voters will decide the composition of the state Senate in 2026, with Democrats currently holding a 23-12 maj... - Elections for all 50 seats in the North Carolina Senate will be held on November 3, 2026 (Ballotpedia News)
All 50 seats in the North Carolina State Senate will be up for election on November 3, 2026. Republicans currently ho...
What to Watch
Governors' Races to Watch
No new polling or candidate events are scheduled for the coming week, but several gubernatorial contests remain worth tracking as ratings stand. Four races are rated Toss-up: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and Nevada. Any shift in these ratings would be the clearest signal of movement in the broader map.
Beyond the Toss-ups, watch for tightening in races currently rated Lean. Kansas and Nebraska are both Lean R, while Minnesota sits at Lean D — all three are closer to Toss-up status than the Likely-rated contests in Michigan, New Hampshire, and New Mexico. Readers should watch for any rating changes in the Lean column over the coming days, as those races are most likely to generate fresh polling activity.
New Polls (13)
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