New generic-ballot polling and a trio of Georgia and Ohio surveys dominate today's data, with Democrats holding a double-digit edge in one national poll and single digits in another, while Ohio's governor race and Georgia's Senate contest both show Democratic leads consistent with recent trends. The most competitive new number is in the Georgia governor's race, where a Wedgewood Polls survey shows a one-point Republican edge — a contrast with the state's Senate race, where the same pollster shows Democrats comfortably ahead.
Generic Ballot: Democrats Show Wide Lead in New Surveys
Two new generic ballot surveys completed October 2 reinforce the Democratic advantage seen throughout the cycle. CBS News and YouGov/CBS News — effectively the same underlying survey — each put Democrats ahead of Republicans 54% to 45% among likely voters, with a sample of 1,572. A separate NBC News/Telemundo poll completed September 28, surveying registered voters, showed a wider 59%-35% Democratic edge. The NBC survey's focus on registered rather than likely voters may account for some of the gap, but both pollsters point the same direction.
Georgia: Governor and Senate Races Diverge
Georgia's two statewide races are producing different pictures. In the governor's race, a Wedgewood Polls survey completed October 3 showed Republican Rick Jackson leading Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms 51% to 49%, consistent with PollingSource's toss-up rating. In the Senate race, the same pollster found Democrat Jon Ossoff leading Republican Mike Collins 55% to 45%, a margin PollingSource rates Safe D. Separately, the Senate-passed Protect College Sports Act — which cleared the chamber 77-22 and now heads to the House — split Georgia's two Democratic senators, with one voting in favor and one against.
Ohio Governor: Acton Holds Single-Digit Lead
A New York Times/Siena University poll completed October 1 in the Ohio governor's race showed Democrat Amy Acton leading Republican Vivek Ramaswamy 49% to 45% among likely voters, in line with PollingSource's Lean D rating. The survey, based on 616 respondents, shows a margin inside five points with Ramaswamy within range if undecided voters break his way.
Nebraska Senate: Trump Campaigns Amid GOP Concern
President Trump traveled to Nebraska to campaign for Republicans in a Senate race that national GOP officials did not expect to be competitive. Incumbent Senator Pete Ricketts faces independent Dan Osborn, who has Democratic backing, in a contest that has prompted direct presidential intervention in a traditionally red state — a dynamic echoing the party's recent anxieties in Kansas.
Tomorrow, watch for additional Senate polling out of Alaska and Texas, where new NYT/Siena surveys this week have shown close margins in both the governor's and Senate contests.
Polls
| National Generic View race View race CBS News (n=1572 LV) | Democrats 54% · Republicans 45% |
| National Generic View race View race NBC News/Telemundo (n=800 RV) | Democrats 59% · Republicans 35% |
| National Generic View race View race YouGov - CBS News (n=1572 LV) | Democrats 54% · Republicans 45% |
| AK Governor View race View race New York Times/Siena University (n=504 LV) | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 40% · Bernadette Wilson 20% |
| GA Governor View race View race Wedgewood Polls (n=600 LV) | Keisha Lance Bottoms 49% · Rick Jackson 51% |
| OH Governor View race View race New York Times/Siena University (n=616 LV) | Amy Acton 49% · Vivek Ramaswamy 45% |
| OH Governor View race View race NY Times/Siena (n=616 LV) | Acton 49% · Ramaswamy 45% |
| TX Governor View race View race NY Times/Siena (n=615 LV) | Hinojosa 49% · Abbott 46% |
Follow the Money
The Follow the Money section was withheld by a pre-send data check — see pollingsource.com for verified data.
Headlines
- Trump takes red state midterm blitz to Nebraska as GOP frets over Senate race (The Hill)
- Protect College Sports Act: Georgia’s Democrat Senators Surprisingly Disagree Amid Conferences’ Support (Daily Signal)
- Democrat Challenger Tom Perriello Stumps in Virginia’s 5th District (Daily Signal)
- Budget ‘unicorn’ Brian Clark leaves Florida House for PinPoint Results (Florida Politics)
What to Watch
Governors' Races to Watch
Ten governor's races carry competitive ratings heading into the coming week, with four listed as pure toss-ups. The Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and Nevada contests remain the closest, with no reliable lean in either direction.
A second tier leans but isn't locked down. Kansas and Nebraska are rated Lean R, while Minnesota and New Mexico sit at Lean D — margins worth tracking as new polling arrives. Michigan (Likely D) and New Hampshire (Likely R) are less competitive but not off the board entirely.
With no events currently scheduled for the coming days, attention turns to whatever fresh survey data emerges out of the toss-up states. Any movement in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, or Nevada — where the ratings show no advantage to either side — would be the most consequential signal to watch for.
New Polls (6)
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