Today's Source

Saturday, July 25, 2026

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Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer waded into her state's Senate primary today, endorsing Haley Stevens over progressive rival Abdul El-Sayed roughly a week before the August 4 vote — a signal of establishment concern about the primary's direction. Meanwhile, fresh polling out of Wisconsin, Vermont, and Florida added detail to several gubernatorial contests, and a new report described Wisconsin's Democratic primary for governor as increasingly disorganized.

Michigan Senate: Whitmer Backs Stevens Over El-Sayed

Governor Whitmer endorsed Representative Haley Stevens in the Democratic primary for Michigan's open Senate seat, opting against progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed. The endorsement, reported by both The Hill and Politico, places the sitting governor squarely in an intraparty contest with ideological stakes, ahead of the August 4 primary. No new polling of the Michigan race was included in today's data.

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Wisconsin Governor: Marquette Poll Shows Barnes and Rodriguez Both Ahead of Tiffany

A Marquette University survey completed July 16 found Democrat Mandela Barnes leading Republican Tom Tiffany 47-42 among likely voters in the Wisconsin governor's race. A companion Marquette poll of registered voters showed Democrat Sara Rodriguez leading Tiffany more narrowly, 42-41. PollingSource currently rates the race Lean D. Separately, a RealClearPolitics report today characterized the state's Democratic gubernatorial primary as marked by infighting and organizational strain, a dynamic distinct from the general-election numbers.

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Vermont Governor: Scott Holds Wide Lead Over Janoo

A University of New Hampshire poll completed July 20 showed Republican Phil Scott leading Democrat Amanda Janoo 44-33 in the Vermont governor's race, consistent with PollingSource's Safe R rating. The same pollster's survey of Vermont's House race showed Democratic Representative Becca Balint leading by wide margins over both potential Republican opponents tested, though those figures came from polling conducted in June and predate this month's fieldwork.

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Florida: Donalds Leads Governor's Race, Moody Ahead in Senate

A University of North Florida poll completed July 17 showed Republican Byron Donalds leading Democrat David Jolly 46-41 in the Florida governor's race, which PollingSource rates a toss-up. The same poll found Republican Ashley Moody leading Democrat Angie Nixon 50-42 in the Florida Senate race, a wider margin than in the governor's contest.

Watch tomorrow for any polling response to the Michigan Senate endorsement battle and continued fallout from this week's Wisconsin primary reporting.

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Polls

FL Governor
University of North Florida (n=848 LV)
David Jolly 41% · Byron Donalds 46%
GA Governor
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) (n=1060 LV)
Keisha Lance Bottoms 48% · Rick Jackson 46%
ME Governor
University of New Hampshire (n=1178 LV)
Hannah Pingree 49% · Bobby Charles 35%
NM Governor
McLaughlin & Associates (R) (n=400 LV)
Deb Haaland 46% · Gregg Hull 45%
NV Governor
Public Policy Polling (D) (n=558 LV)
Aaron Ford 44% · Joe Lombardo 44%
VT Governor
University of New Hampshire (n=954 LV)
Amanda Janoo 33% · Phil Scott 44%
WI Governor
Marquette University (n=695 LV)
Mandela Barnes 47% · Tom Tiffany 42%
WI Governor
Marquette University (n=838 RV)
Sara Rodriguez 42% · Tom Tiffany 41%

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Follow the Money

Michigan Senate: Three-Way Money Race

The Michigan Senate race produced closely bunched fundraising numbers from three Democratic contenders. Abdul El-Sayed reported $12,222,406.75 in total receipts against $9,492,277.33 in disbursements, leaving him with $2,730,129.42 on hand. Haley Stevens posted $11,884,632.43 in receipts and $9,091,338.23 in spending, for $2,793,294.20 remaining. Mallory McMorrow raised $11,386,720.36, spent $9,519,089.08, and closed with $1,867,631.28 cash on hand. All three candidates show similar burn rates, with disbursements running close to 80% of receipts in each case.

Ohio and Virginia Senate: Brown and Warner Report Large Cash Reserves

In the Ohio Senate race, Democrat Sherrod Brown reported $38,566,234.10 in total receipts, the largest figure among this batch of filings, with $22,336,492.78 in disbursements and $16,229,741.32 remaining in the bank. In the Virginia Senate race, Democrat Mark Warner filed $17,889,335.15 in receipts against just $7,327,843.73 in spending, leaving him with $16,114,725.24 on hand — a notably low burn rate compared to other filers in this cycle.

House Filings: Vindman and McClain Delaney

In the Virginia 7th District race, Democrat Eugene Vindman reported $12,355,663.90 in receipts, $5,917,504.37 in disbursements, and $6,573,093.27 cash on hand. In the Maryland 6th District race, Democrat April McClain Delaney raised a comparable $12,308,220.11 but reported spending nearly all of it — $12,013,487.97 — leaving just $307,611.31 on hand, the tightest cash position of any candidate in this set of filings.

Senate Republicans: Whatley and Ricketts

In the North Carolina Senate race, Republican Michael Whatley reported $11,272,504.49 in receipts, $7,810,806.43 in disbursements, and $3,461,698.06 cash on hand. In the Nebraska Senate race, Republican Pete Ricketts filed $11,233,506.70 in receipts with only $4,809,505.91 in spending, leaving him with $6,910,969.90 on hand — the strongest cash position relative to receipts among the Republican filers reported here.

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Headlines

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What to Watch

🗳 Voting this week

South Dakota Runoff on the Horizon

South Dakota's primary runoff is set for July 28, 2026. Watch turnout patterns in the coming days as candidates make final appeals; runoff contests often draw a smaller, more ideologically committed electorate than the initial primary.

Governor's Races to Watch

Several 2026 gubernatorial contests remain unsettled enough to merit close attention. The Florida governor's race, Nebraska governor's race, and New Mexico governor's race are all rated toss-ups, meaning any new polling or fundraising disclosure could shift the narrative. Georgia, Arizona, and Iowa lean Democratic, while Kansas leans Republican — all worth monitoring for movement given their narrower margins. Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire currently sit in the "likely" category for their respective parties, offering less drama but still worth tracking for any signs of tightening as filing deadlines and debates approach in other states.

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New Polls (16)

Jul 17, 2026 University of North Florida n=848 LV · ±3.8 Angie Nixon 42% Ashley Moody 50% R+8
Jul 16, 2026 Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) n=1,060 LV · ±3 Jon Ossoff 52% Mike Collins 43% D+9
Maine Senate 1 poll
Jul 20, 2026 University of New Hampshire n=1,178 LV · ±2.9 Troy Jackson 49% Susan Collins 46% D+3
Jul 17, 2026 University of North Florida n=848 LV · ±3.8 David Jolly 41% Byron Donalds 46% R+5
Jul 20, 2026 University of New Hampshire n=1,178 LV · ±2.9 Hannah Pingree 49% Bobby Charles 35% D+14
Jul 16, 2026 Public Policy Polling (D) n=558 LV · ±4.2 Aaron Ford 44% Joe Lombardo 44% Even
Jul 15, 2026 McLaughlin & Associates (R) n=400 LV · ±4.9 Deb Haaland 46% Gregg Hull 45% D+1
Jul 20, 2026 University of New Hampshire n=954 LV · ±3.2 Amanda Janoo 33% Phil Scott 44% R+11
Jul 16, 2026 Marquette University n=838 RV · ±4.5 Sara Rodriguez 42% Tom Tiffany 41% D+1
Idaho CD-01 3 polls
Jul 14, 2026 SurveyUSA (I) n=478 LV · ±4.9 Russ Fulcher 39% one candidate tested
Jul 14, 2026 SurveyUSA (I) n=478 LV · ±4.9 Kaylee Peterson 39% Russ Fulcher 44% R+5
Jul 14, 2026 SurveyUSA (I) n=480 LV · ±4.9 Kaylee Peterson 35% Russ Fulcher 45% R+10
Maine CD-02 1 poll
Jul 16, 2026 Tulchin Research (D) n=600 LV · ±4 Matt Dunlap 49% Paul LePage 48% D+1
Jul 22, 2026 co/efficient (R) n=1,292 LV · ±2.7 Cait Conley 45% Mike Lawler 50% R+5
Ohio CD-10 1 poll
Jul 12, 2026 FM3 Research (D) n=535 LV Mike Turner 48% one candidate tested
Jul 13, 2026 Tulchin Research (D) n=700 LV Elaine Luria 47% Jen Kiggans 47% Even

Added to the Archive (8)

Older polls newly added to the PollingSource database — fieldwork predates the last two weeks. Full results on each race page.

Jun 2026 Montana Senate 1 poll added
Jun 2026 California CD-22 1 poll added
Jun 2026 Florida CD-22 1 poll added
Jun 2026 Minnesota CD-02 3 polls added
Jun 2026 Vermont At-Large 2 polls added

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