Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer waded into her state's Senate primary today, endorsing Haley Stevens over progressive rival Abdul El-Sayed roughly a week before the August 4 vote — a signal of establishment concern about the primary's direction. Meanwhile, fresh polling out of Wisconsin, Vermont, and Florida added detail to several gubernatorial contests, and a new report described Wisconsin's Democratic primary for governor as increasingly disorganized.
Michigan Senate: Whitmer Backs Stevens Over El-Sayed
Governor Whitmer endorsed Representative Haley Stevens in the Democratic primary for Michigan's open Senate seat, opting against progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed. The endorsement, reported by both The Hill and Politico, places the sitting governor squarely in an intraparty contest with ideological stakes, ahead of the August 4 primary. No new polling of the Michigan race was included in today's data.
Wisconsin Governor: Marquette Poll Shows Barnes and Rodriguez Both Ahead of Tiffany
A Marquette University survey completed July 16 found Democrat Mandela Barnes leading Republican Tom Tiffany 47-42 among likely voters in the Wisconsin governor's race. A companion Marquette poll of registered voters showed Democrat Sara Rodriguez leading Tiffany more narrowly, 42-41. PollingSource currently rates the race Lean D. Separately, a RealClearPolitics report today characterized the state's Democratic gubernatorial primary as marked by infighting and organizational strain, a dynamic distinct from the general-election numbers.
Vermont Governor: Scott Holds Wide Lead Over Janoo
A University of New Hampshire poll completed July 20 showed Republican Phil Scott leading Democrat Amanda Janoo 44-33 in the Vermont governor's race, consistent with PollingSource's Safe R rating. The same pollster's survey of Vermont's House race showed Democratic Representative Becca Balint leading by wide margins over both potential Republican opponents tested, though those figures came from polling conducted in June and predate this month's fieldwork.
Florida: Donalds Leads Governor's Race, Moody Ahead in Senate
A University of North Florida poll completed July 17 showed Republican Byron Donalds leading Democrat David Jolly 46-41 in the Florida governor's race, which PollingSource rates a toss-up. The same poll found Republican Ashley Moody leading Democrat Angie Nixon 50-42 in the Florida Senate race, a wider margin than in the governor's contest.
Watch tomorrow for any polling response to the Michigan Senate endorsement battle and continued fallout from this week's Wisconsin primary reporting.
Polls
| FL Governor University of North Florida (n=848 LV) | David Jolly 41% · Byron Donalds 46% |
| GA Governor Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) (n=1060 LV) | Keisha Lance Bottoms 48% · Rick Jackson 46% |
| ME Governor University of New Hampshire (n=1178 LV) | Hannah Pingree 49% · Bobby Charles 35% |
| NM Governor McLaughlin & Associates (R) (n=400 LV) | Deb Haaland 46% · Gregg Hull 45% |
| NV Governor Public Policy Polling (D) (n=558 LV) | Aaron Ford 44% · Joe Lombardo 44% |
| VT Governor University of New Hampshire (n=954 LV) | Amanda Janoo 33% · Phil Scott 44% |
| WI Governor Marquette University (n=695 LV) | Mandela Barnes 47% · Tom Tiffany 42% |
| WI Governor Marquette University (n=838 RV) | Sara Rodriguez 42% · Tom Tiffany 41% |
Follow the Money
Michigan Senate: Three-Way Money Race
The Michigan Senate race produced closely bunched fundraising numbers from three Democratic contenders. Abdul El-Sayed reported $12,222,406.75 in total receipts against $9,492,277.33 in disbursements, leaving him with $2,730,129.42 on hand. Haley Stevens posted $11,884,632.43 in receipts and $9,091,338.23 in spending, for $2,793,294.20 remaining. Mallory McMorrow raised $11,386,720.36, spent $9,519,089.08, and closed with $1,867,631.28 cash on hand. All three candidates show similar burn rates, with disbursements running close to 80% of receipts in each case.
Ohio and Virginia Senate: Brown and Warner Report Large Cash Reserves
In the Ohio Senate race, Democrat Sherrod Brown reported $38,566,234.10 in total receipts, the largest figure among this batch of filings, with $22,336,492.78 in disbursements and $16,229,741.32 remaining in the bank. In the Virginia Senate race, Democrat Mark Warner filed $17,889,335.15 in receipts against just $7,327,843.73 in spending, leaving him with $16,114,725.24 on hand — a notably low burn rate compared to other filers in this cycle.
House Filings: Vindman and McClain Delaney
In the Virginia 7th District race, Democrat Eugene Vindman reported $12,355,663.90 in receipts, $5,917,504.37 in disbursements, and $6,573,093.27 cash on hand. In the Maryland 6th District race, Democrat April McClain Delaney raised a comparable $12,308,220.11 but reported spending nearly all of it — $12,013,487.97 — leaving just $307,611.31 on hand, the tightest cash position of any candidate in this set of filings.
Senate Republicans: Whatley and Ricketts
In the North Carolina Senate race, Republican Michael Whatley reported $11,272,504.49 in receipts, $7,810,806.43 in disbursements, and $3,461,698.06 cash on hand. In the Nebraska Senate race, Republican Pete Ricketts filed $11,233,506.70 in receipts with only $4,809,505.91 in spending, leaving him with $6,910,969.90 on hand — the strongest cash position relative to receipts among the Republican filers reported here.
Headlines
- Platner recruiter: Reddit posts ‘should’ve been a red line’ (The Hill)
Morris Katz, the Democratic strategist who recruited Graham Platner for Maine's U.S. Senate race, acknowledged in a p... - It's the Year of the DSA in Democratic Politics (RealClearPolitics)
The Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) continue to exert significant influence on Democratic politics heading int... - Amish Shah defeats Marlene Galán-Woods, Rick McCartney, and Jonathan Treble in the Democratic primary for Arizona's 1st Congressional District (Ballotpedia News)
Amish Shah won the Democratic primary for Arizona's 1st Congressional District on July 21, defeating three other cand...
What to Watch
🗳 Voting this week- South Dakota runoff — Tuesday, July 28 (in 3 days)
South Dakota Runoff on the Horizon
South Dakota's primary runoff is set for July 28, 2026. Watch turnout patterns in the coming days as candidates make final appeals; runoff contests often draw a smaller, more ideologically committed electorate than the initial primary.
Governor's Races to Watch
Several 2026 gubernatorial contests remain unsettled enough to merit close attention. The Florida governor's race, Nebraska governor's race, and New Mexico governor's race are all rated toss-ups, meaning any new polling or fundraising disclosure could shift the narrative. Georgia, Arizona, and Iowa lean Democratic, while Kansas leans Republican — all worth monitoring for movement given their narrower margins. Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire currently sit in the "likely" category for their respective parties, offering less drama but still worth tracking for any signs of tightening as filing deadlines and debates approach in other states.
New Polls (16)
Added to the Archive (8)
Older polls newly added to the PollingSource database — fieldwork predates the last two weeks. Full results on each race page.
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