Generic ballot polling released this week shows Democrats maintaining a mid-to-high single-digit lead nationally, with Emerson putting the party ahead 53-42 among likely voters and Pew Research showing a narrower 43-37 split among registered voters. Separately, a federal judicial panel cleared Tennessee to proceed with a congressional map that divides a majority-Black Memphis district, rejecting a challenge just ahead of the state's August primary. In the Senate map, a new Fabrizio/Anzalone survey shows Jon Ossoff leading Georgia's contest by nine points.
Tennessee Congressional Map Cleared for August Primary
A three-judge federal panel declined to issue a preliminary injunction against Tennessee's new congressional map, which splits a majority-Black district in Memphis. The ruling allows the state to proceed with the map as drawn for its upcoming August primary, despite objections raised on civil rights grounds. The decision leaves the map in place for this cycle regardless of any further appeal.
Georgia Senate: Ossoff Leads in New Survey
A Fabrizio/Anzalone poll of 1,060 likely voters, completed July 16, shows Democrat Jon Ossoff leading Republican Derek Collins 52-43 in the Georgia Senate race. The nine-point margin is consistent with PollingSource's current Likely D rating for the contest.
Maine Senate: Replacement Candidate Faces Scrutiny After Platner Withdrawal
Following Graham Platner's withdrawal from Maine's Senate race amid sexual assault allegations, attention has turned to whether his Democratic successor can sustain the campaign's competitiveness in the Maine Senate race. No polling of the reconstituted field has yet been reported.
Nebraska Senate: Second Straight Race Without Both Major Parties
Nebraska is set to hold its second consecutive U.S. Senate election without candidates from both major parties on the ballot, after Democratic nominee Cindy Burbank withdrew from the race. The pattern repeats a dynamic from the prior cycle in the Nebraska Senate race.
Idaho House: Fulcher Leads in New SurveyUSA Poll
A SurveyUSA poll of 480 likely voters completed July 23 shows Republican Russ Fulcher leading Democrat Kaylee Peterson 45-35 in Idaho's 1st District, consistent with PollingSource's Safe R rating for the race.
Watch tomorrow for further developments in the Michigan Senate race, where Abdul El-Sayed picked up an endorsement from Senator Tina Smith this week, and for any polling response to the Tennessee map ruling as primary filing deadlines approach.
Polls
| National Generic Emerson (n=1100 LV) | Democrats 53% · Republicans 42% |
| National Generic Daily Mail (n=626 LV) | Democrats 50% · Republicans 41% |
| National Generic Pew Research (n=2779 RV) | Democrats 43% · Republicans 37% |
| ID House SurveyUSA (n=480 LV) | Kaylee Peterson 35% · Russ Fulcher 45% |
| GA Senate Fabrizio/Anzalone (n=1060 LV) | Ossoff 52% · Collins 43% |
Follow the Money
Michigan Senate: Three-Way Democratic Fundraising Race
The Michigan Senate race produced the most crowded set of competitive filings in this batch, with three Democrats posting double-digit receipts. Abdul El-Sayed led the trio with $12.2 million raised and $9.5 million spent, leaving him $2.7 million in cash on hand. Mallory McMorrow was close behind at $11.3 million raised, but her burn rate was steep — $9.2 million spent — leaving her with just $2.2 million banked. Haley Stevens raised the least of the three at $11 million but spent more conservatively, retaining $3.4 million in cash. The disparity between fundraising totals and cash reserves suggests the primary contest is already consuming resources at a pace that could matter heavily if the race extends deeper into the calendar.
Senate Money Leaders: Brown, Craig and the Cash-on-Hand Gap
Sherrod Brown, a Democrat running in the Ohio Senate race, posted the largest single filing in the group: $38.6 million raised against $22.3 million in disbursements, leaving him with $16.2 million on hand — by far the strongest cash position of any candidate reported here. In the Minnesota Senate race, Democrat Angie Craig raised $11.9 million and kept $5 million in reserve after $6.9 million in spending. On the Republican side, Michael Whatley in the North Carolina Senate race raised $11.3 million and spent $7.8 million, leaving $3.5 million on hand, while Pete Ricketts in the Nebraska Senate race raised a similar $11.2 million but spent far less — $4.8 million — banking $6.9 million, the healthiest reserve-to-spending ratio among the Republicans in this set.
House Filings: Peltola and Vindman Report Strong Hauls
In the Alaska at-large House race, Democrat Mary Peltola reported $15.6 million raised and $9.5 million spent, leaving $6.1 million on hand. In Virginia, Democrat Eugene Vindman filed for the Virginia 7th District race with $12.1 million raised and $6.7 million retained after $5.5 million in disbursements — the strongest cash-to-receipts ratio among the House filers this cycle. Separately, in the South Carolina Senate race, Democrat Annie Andrews raised $10.8 million and spent $6.7 million, leaving $4.1 million on hand.
Headlines
- Nebraska set to have a second straight U.S. Senate election without both major parties on the ballot (Ballotpedia News)
Nebraska is poised to hold its second consecutive U.S. Senate election without candidates from both major parties on ... - Sand and Lahn on their visions for Iowa: "better and truer, not redder or bluer" and "the safest, freest, most family-centered state in America" (Ballotpedia News)
Democrat Rob Sand and Republican Zach Lahn are competing in Iowa's 2026 gubernatorial general election, with Sand pro... - ‘A waste of time’: Tampa City Council blocks state review of Rays district plan (Florida Politics)
The Tampa City Council has blocked a state review of the proposed Rays stadium district plan, with council members di...
What to Watch
🗳 Voting this week- South Dakota runoff — Tuesday, July 28 (in 4 days)
South Dakota Runoff Set for July 28
South Dakota's primary runoff is scheduled for July 28, the only election on the calendar in the coming week. Results will determine which candidates advance in the affected contests; no further detail on the specific races involved is available at this time.
Governor's Races Worth Watching
Among the year's gubernatorial contests, two stand out as true toss-ups: the Florida governor's race and the Nebraska governor's race. Neither shows a clear directional lean, making them the most volatile contests on the board.
A second tier of races leans but isn't locked down. Arizona, Iowa, and New Mexico are each rated Lean D, while Kansas is rated Lean R — margins there are narrow enough that late movement could shift outcomes. Georgia, Michigan, and Minnesota carry Likely D ratings, and New Hampshire is Likely R, putting them a notch further from competitive territory but still worth tracking for any erosion in the frontrunner's position.
New Polls (4)
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