Florida: Donalds Leads Governor's Race, Moody Ahead in Senate

A University of North Florida poll completed July 17 gives Republican Byron Donalds a 46-41 edge over Democrat David Jolly in the Florida governor's race, which PollingSource rates a toss-up. The five-point spread sits within range of a competitive contest, and roughly one in ten respondents remain undecided — a pool large enough to determine the outcome given the margin. Jolly, a former Republican congressman who has rebuilt his political identity as a Democrat, is running in a state that has trended Republican in recent statewide cycles, making his ability to consolidate Democratic-leaning voters and cut into Donalds' base a central question for the fall.

The same survey shows a different dynamic in the Florida Senate race, where Republican Ashley Moody leads Democrat Angie Nixon 50-42. That eight-point margin is nearly double the spread in the governor's race, and Moody's position above the 50 percent threshold is notable in itself — she is drawing a majority outright rather than a plurality, which reduces the extent to which undecided voters could reshape the race. The gap between the two contests raises a question pollsters will be watching closely: whether Florida voters are drawing distinctions between the two Republican nominees, or whether the difference reflects gaps in name recognition between Nixon and Jolly at this stage of the campaign.

Single-poll snapshots from one university-affiliated pollster warrant caution before drawing firm conclusions about the state of either race. Florida has a history of late shifts in statewide contests, and turnout patterns in a midterm year can diverge meaningfully from the electorate captured in a July survey. Still, the consistency of a Republican advantage across both the governor's and Senate polling — even with differing magnitudes — suggests a starting point Democrats will need to work against rather than a genuine toss-up in both races as currently measured.

Watch tomorrow for any polling response to the Michigan Senate endorsement battle and continued fallout from this week's Wisconsin primary reporting.