Two fresh Texas surveys from Big Data Poll anchor today's briefing, showing both the state's governor and Senate races within single digits with three weeks of early data now in hand. Beyond Texas, PollingSource has added a large batch of archival House Majority PAC and internal-caliber surveys spanning House races in a dozen states, filling in the competitive map even though the underlying fieldwork mostly predates September.
Texas: Governor and Senate Both Inside Single Digits
A Big Data Poll survey completed September 26 among 698 likely voters shows Republican Greg Abbott leading Democrat Gina Hinojosa 49% to 44% in the Texas governor's race, a contest PollingSource rates a toss-up. The same pollster's companion survey of the same 698 voters shows Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 47% to 45% in the Texas Senate race, which PollingSource rates Lean D. The divergence between the two races — a five-point Abbott edge alongside a two-point Talarico lead — suggests ticket-splitting is showing up in at least one pollster's data, though a single survey from one outlet is a thin basis for drawing conclusions about either contest.
Iowa Senate: Turek Leads Hinson in New Survey
An InsiderAdvantage poll completed September 23 among 1,200 likely voters shows Democrat Turek leading Republican Hinson 47% to 46% in the Iowa Senate race. The one-point margin falls well within the poll's margin of error, and no other recent-fieldwork survey of the race is available for comparison, leaving the contest's direction unsettled based on this data alone.
House Map: Archive Expansion Across Battleground Districts
PollingSource added a wide set of archival House polling today, conducted between February and late August but entered into the database only now. In Pennsylvania's 1st District, an August 23 GQR survey showed Republican Brian Fitzpatrick edging Democrat Bob Harvie 49% to 48%, while in the state's 8th District, June surveys from Impact Research and Lake Research Partners each showed Democrat Paige Cognetti narrowly ahead of Republican Rob Bresnahan. Florida's 13th District drew conflicting reads: an August 27 Hart Research survey had Democrat Leela J Gray leading Republican Anna Paulina Luna 51% to 46%, while a May Public Policy Polling survey showed Luna ahead 41% to 39%, a spread wide enough to reflect real disagreement over the district's lean rather than simple noise. Other archival entries include Arizona's 6th District, where two 2026 surveys showed Democrat JoAnna Mendoza leading Republican Juan Ciscomani by three to four points, and Wisconsin's 3rd District, where a June FM3 Research poll had Democrat Rebecca Cooke ahead of Republican Derrick Van Orden 50% to 46% — a result at odds with PollingSource's current Lean R rating for that race.
Ohio: Gas Tax Proposal Emerges in Governor's Race
Both candidates in Ohio's governor's race have proposed suspending the state gas tax ahead of Election Day. Republican Vivek Ramaswamy is working with state legislators, who are set to return for a vote on the measure, while Democrat Amy Acton has floated a similar suspension. The parallel proposals reflect the salience of pump prices in the race, though the outcome of any legislative vote remains to be seen.
Watch tomorrow for whether additional pollsters enter the Texas Senate and governor's races to confirm or complicate today's Big Data Poll numbers, and for movement on the Ohio legislature's gas tax vote.
Polls
| TX Governor View race View race Big Data Poll (n=698 LV) | Gina Hinojosa 44% · Greg Abbott 49% |
| AL-02 House View race Tulchin Research | Rep. Shomari Figures 47% · Rhett Marques 47% |
| AZ-06 House View race Ragnar Research Partners (n=400 LV) | JoAnna Mendoza 47% · Juan Ciscomani 44% |
| AZ-06 House View race Normington, Petts & Associates (n=500 None) | JoAnna Mendoza 47% · Juan Ciscomani 45% |
| CA-22 House View race Tulchin Research (n=800 None) | Randy Villegas 48% · David Valadao 44% |
| FL-13 House View race Hart Research Associates (n=500 None) | Leela Gray 51% · Anna Paulina Luna 46% |
| FL-22 House View race Impact Research | Pia Dandiya 46% · Casey Askar 44% |
| FL-13 House View race Public Policy Polling (n=616 RV) | Leela Gray 39% · Anna Paulina Luna 41% |
Follow the Money
Florida House Money Race: A Crowded Republican Field Spends Unevenly
Several Florida House contests show wide gaps between fundraising and cash retention. Among candidates in this data, Randy Fine, a Republican, has burned through the largest share of receipts, spending $3.1 million against $4.29 million raised while holding just $1.19 million on hand. Jimmy Patronis Jr, also a Republican, shows a similar pattern — $2.85 million spent of $3.79 million raised, leaving $935,301, the thinnest reserve in the dataset.
Maxwell Frost, a Democrat, has outspent his own intake, disbursing $3.28 million against $3.47 million raised, leaving just over $1.28 million banked. By contrast, Laurel Lee, a Republican, has spent only $820,753 of $2.35 million raised, banking $1.96 million — the most conservative burn rate of the group.
Joe Strada and Brian Mast, both Republicans, lead in total receipts at $5.25 million and $4.31 million respectively, with Mast holding the largest cash reserve at $2.93 million despite disbursements of $3.15 million.
Headlines
- GOP Reps urge Trump to reimpose sanctions on Russian-owned Serbian refinery (The Hill)
Two House Republicans are urging the Trump administration to reimpose sanctions on a Russian-owned refinery in Serbia... - Democrats divided as Senate heads for AI data-center showdown (The Hill)
Senate Democrats are split over a Republican-backed bill by Sen. Jon Husted (Ohio) aimed at protecting taxpayers from... - Ramaswamy’s Saving Grace? State Legislature to Return for Vote on Gas Tax Suspension (Daily Signal)
Both Democratic and Republican candidates for Ohio governor—Amy Acton and Vivek Ramaswamy—have proposed suspending th...
What to Watch
Governor's Races to Watch
No debates or filing deadlines are on the calendar for the coming week, but several gubernatorial contests remain close enough to merit attention as new polling arrives. The Arizona governor's race is rated a toss-up, as is the Georgia governor's race and the Nevada governor's race. Any shift in either direction in these three states would be the most consequential movement of the cycle.
The Florida governor's race carries a Lean R rating, while New Mexico's contest leans Democratic. Watch whether either tightens toward toss-up status in coming surveys.
Elsewhere, incumbency-party advantages appear more settled: Iowa, Michigan and Minnesota are each rated Likely D, while Kansas and Nebraska sit at Likely R. These five are worth only occasional checks unless new data disrupts the current ratings.
New Polls (3)
Added to the Archive (15)
Older polls newly added to the PollingSource database — fieldwork predates the last two weeks. Full results on each race page.
Rating Changes
PollingSource Poll Average: Texas Senate N/A → Lean D
PollingSource Poll Average: Minnesota Governor N/A → Likely D
PollingSource Poll Average: Michigan Governor N/A → Likely D
PollingSource Poll Average: Michigan Senate N/A → Toss-up
PollingSource Poll Average: Minnesota Senate N/A → Toss-up
PollingSource Poll Average: Kentucky House CD-06 N/A → Likely R
PollingSource Poll Average: Michigan House CD-04 N/A → Likely R
PollingSource Poll Average: North Carolina House CD-11 N/A → Likely R
PollingSource Poll Average: Ohio House CD-07 N/A → Likely R
PollingSource Poll Average: Wisconsin House CD-03 N/A → Lean R
PollingSource Poll Average: Arkansas House CD-02 N/A → Likely R
PollingSource Poll Average: Florida House CD-14 N/A → Lean R
PollingSource Poll Average: Iowa House CD-02 N/A → Lean R
PollingSource Poll Average: Iowa House CD-01 N/A → Lean R
PollingSource Poll Average: Texas Governor N/A → Toss-up
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