Follow the Money

Florida Senate: Weil's Cash Burn Stands Out in Toss-up Race

The Florida Senate race, rated a Toss-up, shows a stark contrast in cash management among its three fundraisers. Democrat Joshua Weil raised $15.9 million and spent every dollar of it, leaving zero cash on hand — a 100% burn rate that leaves him with no reserves heading into the stretch.

Republican Ashley Moody raised less overall, $11.3 million, but has spent only $2.8 million of it, banking $8.5 million in cash on hand. That gives her more than triple Weil's available cash despite the smaller haul, a disbursement rate of roughly 25% against Weil's full drawdown.

Democrat Angie Nixon raised just under $975,000, spending about $710,000 of it and retaining $265,000. Her burn rate, near 73%, sits between the other two candidates but on a fraction of their fundraising scale.

Continue reading →

Headlines

• Sunshine State Earthquake? St. Pete Polls shows Ashley Moody, Angie Nixon neck-and-neck in heated Senate race — Florida Politics
• Poll: Ashley Moody 45%, Angie Nixon 45%, and Florida now has two toss-ups at the top of the ticket — Florida Politics
• Poll: Byron Donalds 44%, David Jolly 43% in dead-heat race for Florida Governor — Florida Politics
• Alaska governor’s race shifts to toss-up: Cook Political Report — The Hill
• Democrats Favored To Take Senate, But It's Close — RealClearPolitics

What to Watch

Governors' Races to Watch

With no debates or filing deadlines on the calendar this week, attention stays on the underlying ratings in the ten governor contests PollingSource tracks most closely. Three sit at Toss-up or Lean status on either side: Florida is a Toss-up, as is Nevada, while Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, and New Mexico each carry a Lean rating toward one party.

Georgia and Kansas lean Republican, while Arizona, Iowa, and New Mexico lean Democratic — narrow enough margins that any new polling this week could shift the picture. Michigan and Minnesota rate Likely D, and Nebraska rates Likely R, giving those three less room to move without a significant shift in the data.

Watch for fresh survey releases in the Toss-up states first — Florida and Nevada are the likeliest to reclassify if new numbers emerge — followed by any movement in the Lean-rated contests, where small polling shifts carry outsized weight on the ratings scale.

Continue reading →