Today's Source

Thursday, September 17, 2026

← Sep 16 Sep 18 →

The Lead summary section was withheld by a pre-send data check — see pollingsource.com for verified data.

Polls

National Generic The Honest Poll (n=1392 RV)	Democrats 51% · Republicans 42%
National Generic Marquette (n=581 LV)	Democrats 54% · Republicans 41%
National Generic FOX News (n=1211 RV)	Democrats 51% · Republicans 44%
National Generic Big Data Poll (n=2633 LV)	Democrats 51% · Republicans 39%
CT Governor Quinnipiac University Polling Institute (n=1288 LV)	Ned Lamont 55% · Ryan Fazio 38%
GA Governor Rasmussen Reports (R) (n=1019 LV)	Keisha Lance Bottoms 45% · Rick Jackson 48%
IA Governor co/efficient (R) (n=831 LV)	Rob Sand 46% · Zach Lahn 42%

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Follow the Money

The Follow the Money section was withheld by a pre-send data check — see pollingsource.com for verified data.

Headlines

The Headlines section was withheld by a pre-send data check — see pollingsource.com for verified data.

What to Watch

Governors' Races Worth Tracking

No debates or filing deadlines are on the calendar this week, but several governor's races remain close enough to warrant attention as polling continues to roll in. Nevada sits at Toss-up, the only race in this group without a lean in either direction, making it the one to watch most closely for movement.

A tier of Lean races could still shift with additional polling: Florida, Georgia, and Kansas lean Republican, while Iowa and New Mexico lean Democratic. None of these carry enough of a cushion to be considered settled, and any new survey showing a shift of a few points would be notable.

Arizona, Michigan, and Minnesota currently rate Likely D, and Nebraska rates Likely R — categories that suggest a clearer advantage but not a foregone conclusion. Watch for any new polling this week that narrows these margins, which would be the first sign of a race tightening ahead of further ratings changes.

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New Polls (20)

Iowa Senate 1 poll

Sep 16, 2026 co/efficient (R) n=831 LV · ±3.4 Josh Turek 42% – Ashley Hinson 46% R+4

Maine Senate 1 poll

Sep 15, 2026 Quantus Insights (R) n=621 LV · ±4.3 Troy Jackson 47% – Susan Collins 48% R+1

Nebraska Senate 1 poll

Sep 16, 2026 Wedgewood Polls n=500 LV · ±4.4 Pete Ricketts 52% one candidate tested —

Ohio Senate 2 polls

Sep 10, 2026 Bowling Green State University/YouGov n=1,000 LV · ±4 Sherrod Brown 48% – Jon Husted 45% D+3

Sep 10, 2026 Bowling Green/YouGov n=1,000 LV · ±4 Brown 48% – Husted 45% D+3

Connecticut Governor 1 poll

Sep 14, 2026 Quinnipiac University Polling Institute n=1,288 LV · ±3.8 Ned Lamont 55% – Ryan Fazio 38% D+17

Georgia Governor 1 poll

Sep 14, 2026 Rasmussen Reports (R) n=1,019 LV · ±3 Keisha Lance Bottoms 45% – Rick Jackson 48% R+3

Iowa Governor 1 poll

Sep 16, 2026 co/efficient (R) n=831 LV · ±3.4 Rob Sand 46% – Zach Lahn 42% D+4

Nebraska Governor 1 poll

Sep 16, 2026 Wedgewood Polls n=500 LV · ±4.4 Lynne Walz 36% – Jim Pillen 53% R+17

Ohio Governor 2 polls

Sep 10, 2026 Bowling Green State University/YouGov n=1,000 LV · ±4 Amy Acton 48% – Vivek Ramaswamy 45% D+3

Sep 10, 2026 Bowling Green/YouGov n=1,000 LV · ±4 Acton 48% – Ramaswamy 45% D+3

Oregon Governor 1 poll

Sep 9, 2026 DHM Research n=600 LV · ±4 Tina Kotek 43% – Christine Drazan 45% R+2

Maine CD-02 1 poll

Sep 12, 2026 Impact Research (D) n=500 LV Matt Dunlap 49% – Paul LePage 49% Even

Montana CD-02 1 poll

Sep 7, 2026 Rutgers University Eagleton Institute of Politics n=470 RV · ±5.8 Brian Miller 26% – Troy Downing 48% R+22

Nebraska CD-01 1 poll

Sep 3, 2026 Global Strategy Group (D) n=600 LV · ±4 Chris Backemeyer 43% – Mike Flood 42% D+1

North Carolina CD-01 1 poll

Sep 11, 2026 GBAO (D) n=500 LV Don Davis 50% – Laurie Buckhout 43% D+7

Generic 4 polls

Sep 15, 2026 Big Data Poll n=2,633 LV Democrats 51% – Republicans 39% D+12

Sep 14, 2026 FOX News n=1,211 RV Democrats 51% – Republicans 44% D+7

Sep 13, 2026 The Honest Poll n=1,392 RV Democrats 51% – Republicans 42% D+9

Sep 9, 2026 Marquette n=581 LV Democrats 54% – Republicans 41% D+13

Rating Changes

PollingSource Poll Average: Iowa Governor N/A → Lean D

PollingSource Poll Average: Connecticut Governor N/A → Safe D

PollingSource Poll Average: Nebraska Governor N/A → Likely R

PollingSource Poll Average: Maine Senate N/A → Toss-up

PollingSource Poll Average: Nebraska House CD-01 N/A → Likely R

PollingSource Poll Average: New York House CD-21 N/A → Lean R

Inside Elections: Maine Senate Tilt Republican → Toss-up

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