Primary
Democratic Primary
Held June 2, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Miller ✓ | 24,033 | 55.7% | |
| Sam Lux | 11,759 | 27.2% | |
| Jonathan Windy Boy | 7,484 | 17.2% |
Republican Primary
Held June 2, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Downing ✓ | 82,088 | 100.0% |
Libertarian Primary
Held June 2, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick McCracken ✓ | 1,846 | 100.0% |
Full calendar and every race: Montana primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
PollingSource average — the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer (no polls in the last 30 days). This is an average, not a forecast.
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Candidates
General Election Polling Average
No scientific polls in the last 30 days — the figure is the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer when fewer exist, not a 30-day mean. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rutgers University Eagleton Institute of Politics | 2026-09-07 | 470 RV | ±5.80 | Brian Miller 26.00% | Troy Downing 48.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 MT-02 House race?
Troy Downing leads Brian James Miller 48% to 26% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+22.0 margin based on the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer (no polls in the last 30 days).
Is the 2026 MT-02 House race competitive?
No — the expert consensus rates it Safe R for Republicans.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 MT-02 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from Rutgers University Eagleton Institute of Politics (completed September 7, 2026), found Brian Miller (D) at 26% and Troy Downing (R) at 48%.
When is the 2026 MT-02 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average on this page is the last three qualifying scientific public polls of the locked matchup, or fewer — the newest of them is older than 30 days, so this is not a 30-day mean and it does not set the rating. We do not exclude pollsters. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
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