Today's Source

Wednesday, July 29, 2026

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South Dakota was the only state to hold elections yesterday, closing out a runoff cycle that settled the Republican nomination for governor. Incumbent Governor Larry Rhoden defeated challenger Toby Doeden by a wide margin, clearing the way for a general-election matchup with Democrat Dan Ahlers in a state where statewide races have historically broken Republican.

South Dakota: Rhoden Turns Back Doeden in Governor's Runoff

Governor Larry Rhoden, a Republican, defeated businessman Toby Doeden in South Dakota's gubernatorial runoff, taking 83,582 votes to Doeden's 34,430 — a 70.83 to 29.17 percent split. The margin was decisive, and it came after neither candidate cleared 50 percent in the state's June primary, forcing yesterday's head-to-head vote. Rhoden's showing exceeded a July 13 Emerson College poll that had him at 62 percent, suggesting the runoff electorate consolidated behind the incumbent more firmly than pre-election surveys indicated.

Precinct-level reporting figures were not available in the data released, but the vote totals reflect a runoff turnout consistent with a low-profile statewide contest limited to Republican voters. Rhoden's win removes the last obstacle to the Republican nomination and sets up the general election against Ahlers, the Democratic nominee, in November.

The result also closes out a chapter distinct from the state's other statewide contests this cycle. Unlike the Senate and House primaries that dominated attention in South Dakota's earlier primary round, yesterday's runoff was a single-race affair confined to the governor's contest. With the nomination decided, attention now shifts to the general election, where South Dakota's Republican lean makes Rhoden the clear favorite heading into the fall, though no independent rating of the general-election governor's race was included in the data provided.

Results are also in from: no other states held elections yesterday. South Dakota's governor runoff was the sole contest on the calendar.

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Full Results Analysis

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Polls

National Generic
Economist/YouGov (n=1407 RV)
Democrats 46% · Republicans 42%
National Generic
Morning Consult (n=2200 RV)
Democrats 46% · Republicans 43%
MI Governor
Glengariff Group (n=600 LV)
Jocelyn Benson 44% · John James 39%
NY Governor
Red Oak Strategic (R) (n=2000 RV)
Kathy Hochul 47% · Bruce Blakeman 43%
TX Governor
Texas Public Opinion Research (n=1048 LV)
Gina Hinojosa 42% · Greg Abbott 45%
AK House
The Bullfinch Group/Independent Center (n=705 LV)
Matt Schultz 32% · Nick Begich III 46%
CA House
The Bullfinch Group/Independent Center (n=741 LV)
Richard Pan 39% · None 0%
CA House
Lake Research (n=500 LV)
Marni von Wilpert 48% · Jim Desmond 46%

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Follow the Money

Michigan Senate: Three-Way Fundraising Race

The Michigan Senate race produced the most crowded set of competitive filings this period. Democrat Haley Stevens reported $11.88 million in total receipts with $2.79 million cash on hand after spending $9.09 million. Democrat Mallory McMorrow raised $11.39 million and spent $9.52 million, leaving her with $1.87 million on hand. Republican Mike Rogers filed $10.9 million in receipts, $6.68 million in disbursements, and $4.47 million remaining in his account.

The three totals sit within roughly $1 million of one another, but cash-on-hand positions diverge sharply — Rogers heads into the next period with more than double the reserves of either Democrat, despite trailing both in total receipts. Stevens and McMorrow have each burned through more than 75% of what they've raised, a pace that will bear watching in subsequent filings.

Ohio and New Hampshire Senate: Incumbent Fundraising Totals

In the Ohio Senate race, Democrat Sherrod Brown reported the largest haul among Senate filers this cycle at $38.57 million in total receipts, with $16.23 million cash on hand after $22.34 million in disbursements. In the New Hampshire Senate race, Democrat Chris Pappas filed $13.37 million in receipts, $8.6 million in spending, and $5.18 million on hand.

North Carolina and Nebraska Senate: Republican Filings

In the North Carolina Senate race, Republican Michael Whatley reported $11.27 million in receipts against $7.81 million in disbursements, leaving $3.46 million on hand. In the Nebraska Senate race, Republican Pete Ricketts filed $11.23 million in receipts with only $4.81 million spent, giving him $6.91 million on hand — among the strongest reserve positions of any filer this period.

House Filings: Vindman and McClain Delaney

In the Virginia 7th District race, Democrat Eugene Vindman reported $12.36 million in total receipts, $5.92 million in disbursements, and $6.57 million cash on hand. In the Maryland 6th District race, Democrat April McClain Delaney raised a similar $12.31 million but spent nearly all of it — $12.01 million in disbursements — leaving just $307,611 on hand, the thinnest reserve cushion among the filers reviewed here.

Minnesota Senate: Craig's Filing

In the Minnesota Senate race, Democrat Angie Craig reported $11.93 million in total receipts, $6.9 million in disbursements, and $5.04 million cash on hand.

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Headlines

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What to Watch

🗳 Voting this week

What to Watch: August 4 Primaries

Five states hold primaries on August 4: Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Virginia, and Washington. Kansas, Michigan, and Virginia will set nominees across Senate, House, and gubernatorial contests, while Missouri and Washington will decide House and governor fields. These results will shape the fall matchups in several races already drawing national attention, including the Kansas governor's race, rated Lean R, and the Michigan governor's race, rated Likely D.

Beyond the primary states, watch continued positioning in the toss-up governor's races in Arizona, Florida, and Nevada, along with Lean D contests in Georgia, Iowa, and New Mexico. Michigan and Kansas voters will provide the first concrete signal of how competitive their general elections may become once nominees are set. Minnesota and New Hampshire remain rated Likely D and Likely R respectively, with no signs yet of movement.

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New Polls (10)

Jul 24, 2026 Glengariff Group n=600 LV · ±4 Abdul El-Sayed 39% Mike Rogers 49% R+10
Jul 26, 2026 GQR (D) n=500 LV · ±4.4 Alani Bankhead 22% Kurt Alme 41% R+19
Texas Senate 1 poll
Jul 17, 2026 Texas Public Opinion Research n=1,048 LV · ±3.4 James Talarico 45% Ken Paxton 40% D+5
Jul 24, 2026 Glengariff Group n=600 LV · ±4 Jocelyn Benson 44% John James 39% D+5
Jul 17, 2026 Texas Public Opinion Research n=1,048 LV · ±3.4 Gina Hinojosa 42% Greg Abbott 45% R+3
Jul 16, 2026 The Bullfinch Group/Independent Center n=705 LV · ±3.7 Matt Schultz 32% Nick Begich III 46% R+14
Jul 16, 2026 The Bullfinch Group/Independent Center n=741 LV · ±3.6 Richard Pan 39% one candidate tested
Iowa CD-01 1 poll
Jul 16, 2026 The Bullfinch Group/Independent Center n=705 LV · ±3.7 Christina Bohannan 40% Mariannette Miller-Meeks 35% D+5
Generic 2 polls
Jul 27, 2026 Economist/YouGov n=1,407 RV Democrats 46% Republicans 42% D+4
Jul 26, 2026 Morning Consult n=2,200 RV Democrats 46% Republicans 43% D+3

Added to the Archive (1)

Older polls newly added to the PollingSource database — fieldwork predates the last two weeks. Full results on each race page.

Jul 2026 New York Governor 1 poll added

Rating Changes

PollingSource Poll Average: Iowa House CD-01 N/A → Lean R

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