The freshest signal today comes from North Carolina, where two separate pollsters released identical topline numbers in the Senate race, alongside continued softening for Republicans on the generic ballot. A Quinnipiac survey out July 27 put Democrats ahead 48 to 41 percent nationally, while down-ballot state polling shows Colorado's competitive House race and Ohio's incumbent-heavy contest offering a mixed picture for both parties heading into the fall stretch.
North Carolina Senate: Cooper Holds Double-Digit Edge in Twin Surveys
Two pollsters using the same July 27 fieldwork period show Roy Cooper, the Democratic candidate, leading Republican Michael Whatley 53 to 44 percent in the North Carolina Senate race. FOX News and the pairing of Beacon Research and Shaw & Co. Research each surveyed 1,005 registered voters and landed on identical nine-point margins. The consistency across two independently fielded polls, rather than the topline number itself, is the notable feature here — it leaves little ambiguity about the current state of the race, which PollingSource rates Likely D.
Generic Ballot: Democrats Post a Seven-Point Edge
A Quinnipiac poll of 963 registered voters conducted through July 27 shows Democrats leading Republicans 48 to 41 percent on the generic congressional ballot. The seven-point gap is among the wider margins reported this cycle and adds to a run of data suggesting Democratic strength in the national environment heading into the fall.
Colorado's 5th District: Killin and Crank Locked Near Even
A Global Strategy Group poll fielded for Democrats shows Republican Jeff Crank at 45 percent against Democrat Jessica Killin at 44 percent in Colorado's competitive House race, based on 450 likely voters surveyed through July 21. The one-point margin, within the poll's likely margin of error, indicates a genuinely contested race, though the survey's Democratic sponsorship warrants some caution in reading the topline as a neutral benchmark.
Ohio Governor: Pandemic Record Becomes a Line of Attack
Republicans are targeting Democratic gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton over her role managing Ohio's COVID-19 response, linking her record to Dr. Anthony Fauci in campaign messaging as the Ohio governor's race tightens. The attacks focus on her public statements during pandemic-era lockdowns. Separately, a Global Strategy Group poll of 700 likely voters found Republican Representative Mike Turner at 49 percent in Ohio's House delegation, though no Democratic candidate figure was included in that survey. PollingSource rates the governor's race a toss-up.
Watch tomorrow for further movement in Michigan's Democratic Senate primary, where establishment-aligned Democrats are actively working against progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed, and for any polling response to Florida's newly announced state investigation into Fauci's Senate testimony.
Polls
| National Generic Quinnipiac (n=963 RV) | Democrats 48% · Republicans 41% |
| PA Governor PennLive (n=630 LV) | Shapiro 53% · Garrity 28% |
| CO House Global Strategy Group (D) (n=450 LV) | Jessica Killin 44% · Jeff Crank 45% |
| OH House Global Strategy Group (D) (n=700 LV) | None 0% · Mike Turner 49% |
| MT Senate Bullfinch Group (R) (n=793 LV) | Alani Bankhead 22% · Kurt Alme 36% |
| NC Senate FOX News (n=1005 RV) | Cooper 53% · Whatley 44% |
| NC Senate Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) (n=1005 RV) | Roy Cooper 53% · Michael Whatley 44% |
Follow the Money
Michigan Senate: Three-Way Money Race
The Michigan Senate race produced the most crowded set of competitive filings this period. Democrat Haley Stevens reported $11.9 million in total receipts with $2.8 million cash on hand after disbursing $9.1 million. Fellow Democrat Mallory McMorrow raised $11.4 million and spent $9.5 million, leaving her with $1.9 million on hand. Republican Mike Rogers brought in $10.9 million, with $6.7 million spent and $4.5 million remaining in his account. All three campaigns show heavy burn rates relative to receipts, with Rogers holding the largest cash reserve of the three heading into the next filing period.
Ohio and New Hampshire Senate: Brown and Pappas Report Big Hauls
In the Ohio Senate race, Democrat Sherrod Brown led all filers with $38.6 million in total receipts, $22.3 million in disbursements, and $16.2 million cash on hand — the largest war chest among the candidates in this batch of filings. In the New Hampshire Senate race, Democrat Chris Pappas reported $13.4 million raised, $8.6 million spent, and $5.2 million remaining on hand.
Minnesota and Nebraska Senate: Craig and Ricketts File
In the Minnesota Senate race, Democrat Angie Craig raised $11.9 million, spent $6.9 million, and retained just over $5 million in cash. In the Nebraska Senate race, Republican Pete Ricketts reported $11.2 million in receipts against $4.8 million in disbursements, leaving him with $6.9 million on hand — the strongest cash position relative to spending among Senate filers in this group. North Carolina Republican Michael Whatley, running in the North Carolina Senate race, reported $11.3 million raised, $7.8 million spent, and $3.5 million cash on hand.
House Filings: Vindman and McClain Delaney
In the Virginia 7th District race, Democrat Eugene Vindman raised $12.4 million, spent $5.9 million, and holds $6.6 million cash on hand — among the strongest House-level positions in this filing batch. In the Maryland 6th District race, Democrat April McClain Delaney reported $12.3 million raised but disbursed $12 million of it, leaving only $307,611 on hand, the tightest cash position of any candidate in this set of filings.
Headlines
- El-Sayed Has Edge in Dems' Michigan Senate Primary (RealClearPolitics)
- Florida AG launching investigation into Fauci after Senate hearing (The Hill)
Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier announced he is opening an investigation into Dr. Anthony Fauci following the... - Republicans Hammer Amy Acton’s Role During Pandemic, Associate Her With Fauci (Daily Signal)
Republicans are attacking Dr. Amy Acton's pandemic response role in Ohio's gubernatorial race, linking her to Dr. Fau...
What to Watch
🗳 Voting this week- Kansas primary — Tuesday, August 4 (in 5 days)
- Michigan primary — Tuesday, August 4 (in 5 days)
- Missouri primary — Tuesday, August 4 (in 5 days)
- Virginia primary — Tuesday, August 4 (in 5 days)
- Washington primary — Tuesday, August 4 (in 5 days)
- Tennessee primary — Thursday, August 6 (in 7 days)
Primary Season Opens in Six States
The week ahead brings no elections, but the calendar turns quickly toward August 4, when Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Virginia, and Washington all hold primaries with contests spanning Senate, House, and governor races. Tennessee follows two days later, on August 6, with its own slate of Senate, House, and governor primaries. These contests will begin narrowing the fields in several states where the general-election picture remains unsettled.
Governor's Races to Watch
Among the primary states, Kansas stands out: its governor's race carries a Lean R rating, while Michigan's governor's race is rated Likely D. Neither Missouri, Virginia, Washington, nor Tennessee governor contests currently appear among the closest-watched races, but the primary results in Kansas and Michigan will shape how competitive their general elections become. Beyond the primary states, several governor's races remain rated Toss-up, including Arizona, Florida, and Nevada, alongside Lean D ratings in Georgia, Iowa, and New Mexico — all worth tracking as the primary results roll in and further clarify the fall landscape.
New Polls (6)
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