Primary
Democratic Primary
Held August 6, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jerri Green ✓ | 252,933 | 71.5% | |
| Carnita Atwater | 65,664 | 18.6% | |
| Kevin Lee McCants | 19,987 | 5.7% | |
| Tim Cyr | 15,407 | 4.4% |
Republican Primary
Held August 6, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marsha Blackburn ✓ | 320,138 | 43.7% | |
| John Rose | 241,875 | 33.0% | |
| Monty Fritts | 171,052 | 23.3% |
Full calendar and every race: Tennessee primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
The right edge is that same average of the last three polls. This is an average, not a forecast.
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General Election Polling Average
LV = likely voters · RV = registered voters · ± = margin of error · R-sponsored / D-sponsored / I-sponsored = paid for by a Republican, Democratic, or Independent group · "missed 2024 by X pts" = that firm's average miss in 2024
Average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls. Fewer than three uses the polls that exist. The rating uses that average when the newest poll ended in the last 30 days. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spry Strategies (R) In average | 2026-10-15 this poll | 635 LV | ±3.90 | Jerri Green 32.00% | Marsha Blackburn 44.00% |
| All candidates (full ballot): Marsha Blackburn (R) 44% · Jerri Green (D) 32% · David Hatley (I) 12% · Others 12% · Undecided 10% | |||||
| TargetSmart In average | 2026-09-12 this poll | 600 LV | ±4.00 | Jerri Green 36.00% | Marsha Blackburn 45.00% |
| Targoz Market Research In average | 2026-08-26 this poll | 601 LV | ±2.77 | Jerri Green 34.00% | Marsha Blackburn 55.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 Tennessee governor's race?
Marsha Blackburn leads Jerri Green 48% to 34% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+14.0 margin based on 3 polls, the last three or fewer.
Is the 2026 Tennessee governor's race competitive?
No — the PollingSource polling average rates it Safe R for Republicans.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 Tennessee governor's race say?
The most recent poll in our average, from Spry Strategies (R) (completed October 15, 2026), found Jerri Green (D) at 32% and Marsha Blackburn (R) at 44%.
When is the 2026 Tennessee governor's race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls, or fewer when fewer exist. One poll sets the rating when it ended in the last 30 days. We do not exclude pollsters. The table lists recent polls, including ones older than those three. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
Bill Lee term-limited (two-term limit), open seat
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