Sabato's Crystal Ball moved three Texas races toward Democrats today, most notably shifting the governor's race between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. John James Talarico from Leans Republican to Toss-up. That rating change lands alongside a Texas Southern University poll showing Talarico leading Paxton 50-42 in the Senate race, and fresh Iowa and Wisconsin gubernatorial surveys that reinforce close but stable margins in both states.
Texas: Crystal Ball Downgrades Republican Prospects
Sabato's Crystal Ball reclassified the Texas governor's race from Leans Republican to Toss-up, alongside similar shifts in the state's 15th Congressional District, which PollingSource's own average also rates Toss-up. The moves come as a Texas Southern University poll of the Texas Senate race shows Talarico leading Paxton 50-42, and separate TSU House polling finds Democrat Henry Cuellar ahead of Republican Tano Tijerina 45-34, Democrat Bobby Pulido leading Republican Monica De La Cruz 50-45, and Democrat Vicente Gonzalez ahead of Republican Eric Flores 45-42. PollingSource's average still rates the Texas governor's race Lean R and the Senate race Lean D, underscoring that the rating change reflects a shift in competitiveness rather than a reversal of the underlying numbers.
Iowa: Sand Holds Steady Lead, Turek Trails in Senate
A Suffolk University poll completed August 22-23 shows Democrat Rob Sand leading Republican Zach Lahn 48-44 in the Iowa governor's race, consistent across both registered- and likely-voter screens. The same Suffolk survey finds a different picture in the Iowa Senate race, where Republican Ashley Hinson leads Democrat Josh Turek 45-41. Turek separately told reporters in Cedar Rapids that he does not want former Vice President Kamala Harris campaigning for him, a distancing move in a race PollingSource rates Lean R.
Wisconsin Governor: Crowley's Edge Narrows Depending on Sample
Marquette University polling of the Wisconsin governor's race, completed August 20, shows Democrat David Crowley leading Republican Tom Tiffany 49-44 in one release, but a companion Marquette sample from the same fieldwork period shows the race tied at 44-44 among both likely and registered voters. The split within the same polling organization leaves Crowley's advantage uncertain heading into the fall, and PollingSource's average continues to rate the race Toss-up.
New Hampshire and Massachusetts: Primary Fields Take Shape
University of New Hampshire polling of the state's Democratic Senate primary shows Chris Pappas at 47 percent, while a separate UNH survey of the general election matchup has Pappas trailing Republican John E. Sununu 43-45. In New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District Democratic primary, Maggie Goodlander leads Maura Sullivan 59-24, while the Republican primary in the same district shows Lily Tang Williams ahead of Holly Noveletsky 58-28. In Massachusetts, a UNH poll of the Democratic Senate primary shows incumbent Ed Markey at 63 percent.
Watch tomorrow for additional filings and polling out of Nevada's 1st Congressional District, newly targeted by both parties' campaign committees, and for developments in Alaska's Senate race following the advance of two Republican candidates both named Dan Sullivan to the general election ballot.
Polls
| National Generic McLaughlin | Democratic 48% · Republican 43% |
| National Generic McLaughlin | DEM 48% · GOP 43% |
| National Generic ActiVote | DEM 52% · GOP 48% |
| National Generic Verasight | DEM 51% · GOP 44% |
| National Generic Verasight | Democratic 51% · Republican 44% |
| IA Governor Suffolk | Rob Sand 48% · Zach Lahn 44% |
| IA Governor Suffolk University (n=500 LV) | Rob Sand 48% · Zach Lahn 44% |
| WI Governor Marquette University (n=738 LV) | David Crowley 49% · Tom Tiffany 44% |
Follow the Money
New York House Fundraising: A Study in Contrasts
The financial picture across New York's House delegation shows wide variance in both scale and strategy. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a Democrat, has raised $32.6 million and still holds nearly $16 million on hand — figures that dwarf every other candidate in the dataset and reflect a small-dollar national fundraising operation rather than a typical House campaign. Hakeem Jeffries, also a Democrat, raised $14.9 million but has spent nearly all of it, leaving just $5 million in reserve.
Republican Anthony Thomas Constantino raised $9.5 million against Ocasio-Cortez, spending $8.7 million of it, while Republican Mike Lawler has banked over half his $8.2 million in receipts, holding $4.8 million on hand against relatively modest spending so far.
Elsewhere, Democrat Ritchie Torres stands out for cash discipline, converting $6.9 million raised into nearly $14 million on hand — signaling either an uncontested financial environment or a deliberate reserve-building strategy. Democrats Tom Suozzi, Laura Gillen, Josh Riley, and Pat Ryan show similar patterns of low burn rates relative to receipts.
Headlines
- Josh Turek says Kamala Harris should not campaign for him (The Hill)
Iowa Democratic Senate candidate Josh Turek rejected the possibility of Kamala Harris campaigning for him, distancing... - GOP nominee for Texas House seat apologizes for ‘crude’ online posts (The Hill)
GOP Texas House candidate Jorge Borrego apologized Wednesday for past crude and immature online posts after initially... - Twenty-six incumbents are running in contested primaries for the Massachusetts General Court on Sept. 1, the most since 2010 (Ballotpedia News)
A record 26 incumbents in the Massachusetts General Court are facing primary challengers on September 1, marking the ...
What to Watch
🗳 Voting this week- Massachusetts primary — Tuesday, September 1 (in 5 days)
What to Watch
Massachusetts holds its primary for Senate, House, and governor on September 1, 2026, setting the fields for the general election in a state where statewide contests have historically leaned toward one party. Watch turnout patterns and margins in contested primaries for early signals heading into fall.
Governor's races remain the marquee category to track this cycle. Three contests are rated Toss-up: Florida, Georgia, and Ohio. These will likely draw the heaviest spending and national attention as ratings tighten or shift.
Beyond the toss-ups, several races sit in Lean territory worth monitoring for movement: Iowa, Maine, and Oregon are rated Lean D, while Kansas is Lean R. Arizona and Michigan lean further toward Democrats at Likely D, and Nevada is rated Likely R. Any shift out of these lean or likely categories would signal a broader change in the national environment.
New Polls (20)
Rating Changes
PollingSource Poll Average: Wisconsin Governor N/A → Toss-up
PollingSource Poll Average: Iowa Governor N/A → Lean D
PollingSource Poll Average: Ohio House CD-01 N/A → Toss-up
PollingSource Poll Average: Texas House CD-15 N/A → Toss-up
PollingSource Poll Average: Texas House CD-28 N/A → Toss-up
PollingSource Poll Average: Texas House CD-34 N/A → Toss-up
PollingSource Poll Average: North Carolina Senate N/A → Likely D
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