Today's Source
Friday, August 28, 2026
Michigan's Senate primary results are drawing new attention to a race that will test whether progressive momentum in a contested primary translates into general-election viability, while fresh statewide polling out of Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Texas fills in the picture for several governor's races heading into the fall. South Carolina's governor contest, meanwhile, shows a competitive gap that belies the state's usual Republican lean.
Michigan Senate: El-Sayed's Narrow Primary Win Draws Scrutiny
Democrat Abdul El-Sayed defeated Haley Stevens by a narrow margin in Michigan's Democratic Senate primary, according to reporting today, and the closeness of that result is prompting questions about party unity heading into the general election in the Michigan Senate race. El-Sayed also drew notice for a combative Fox News interview with host Jesse Watters that pulled 3.3 million viewers, a sign the race is already generating national attention beyond the state.
Governors: Fresh Numbers From New England and Pennsylvania
A University of New Hampshire poll completed August 24 shows Democratic Governor Ned Lamont leading Republican Ryan Fazio 52-37 in the Connecticut governor's race, while the same pollster has Democratic Governor Maura Healey ahead of Republican Michael Minogue 54-30 in Massachusetts. In New Hampshire's own governor's race, Republican Kelly Ayotte leads Democrat Cinde Warmington 49-39. In Pennsylvania, a Franklin & Marshall College poll completed August 23 shows Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro leading Republican Stacy Garrity 50-25, consistent with PollingSource's Safe D rating for the Pennsylvania governor's race.
South Carolina and Texas: Wider Fields, Tighter Margins
A Hart Research poll completed August 15 shows Republican Alan Wilson leading Democrat Jermaine Johnson 50-42 in the South Carolina governor's race, a double-digit gap but closer than many Republican-leaning Southern contests. In Texas, a Slingshot Strategies/TPOR poll completed August 24 shows Republican Governor Greg Abbott leading Democrat Gina Hinojosa 49-42 in the Texas governor's race, rated Lean R by PollingSource. A separate TPOR poll from the same fieldwork period shows Democrat John James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 48-42 in the Texas Senate race, consistent with PollingSource's Lean D rating there.
Iowa Senate: Hinson Ahead as Turek Fights for Traction
A Suffolk poll completed August 22 shows Republican Ashley Hinson leading Democrat Josh Turek 45.4-40.8 in the Iowa Senate race, rated Lean R by PollingSource. Democratic outside money is beginning to flow into the contest as well: former national security official Alex Vindman has put $250,000 across nine Senate battlegrounds nationally, including Iowa, according to reporting today.
Watch tomorrow for further fallout from Michigan's Senate primary as national Democrats weigh in on the Stevens-El-Sayed divide, along with any movement in Texas House polling given today's wave of statewide numbers there.
Polls
| National Generic M | Shapiro 50% · Garrity 25% |
| National Generic Angus Reid | Democrats 45% · Republicans 36% |
| National Generic Angus Reid | DEM 51% · GOP 45% |
| CT Governor UNH | Ned Lamont 52% · Ryan Fazio 37% |
| MA Governor UNH | Maura Healey 54% · Michael Minogue 30% |
| NH Governor UNH | Cinde Warmington 39% · Kelly Ayotte 49% |
| PA Governor Franklin & Marshall College (n=501 RV) | Josh Shapiro 50% · Stacy Garrity 25% |
| PA Governor Franklin & Marshall (n=501 RV) | Shapiro 50% · Garrity 25% |
Follow the Money
Nebraska Senate: Ricketts Outraises, Osborn Outspends Proportionally
Pete Ricketts, the Republican candidate, leads the money race in the Nebraska Senate contest with $11.2 million in total receipts and $6.9 million still on hand. His disbursements of $4.8 million represent roughly 43% of total receipts, leaving him with the largest reserve of the three candidates in the race.
Independent Dan Osborn has raised $5.75 million but spent $3.39 million of it, a burn rate near 59% of total receipts — notably higher than Ricketts'. That leaves Osborn with $2.4 million on hand, roughly a third of what Ricketts has banked.
Independent candidate Mike Marvin reported minimal activity by comparison: $27,745 raised, $25,129 spent, and just $2,615 remaining, reflecting a campaign operating at a fraction of the scale of the other two.
Headlines
- Alex Vindman makes $250K investment in Senate battlegrounds nationwide (Florida Politics)
Former national security official Alexander Vindman has invested $250,000 across nine competitive Senate races nation... - Gilchrist, Forlini seek open Michigan secretary of state seat as Jocelyn Benson runs for governor (Ballotpedia News)
Michigan's open secretary of state race in 2026 will feature Lt. Governor Garlin Gilchrist II (D) and Republican Anth... - Jesse Watters’ Contentious Interview Delivers Fox News a Huge Ratings Win (Daily Signal)
Jesse Watters' interview with Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed drew 3.3 million viewers Monday night, becomin...
What to Watch
🗳 Voting this week- Massachusetts primary — Tuesday, September 1 (in 4 days)
What to Watch
Massachusetts holds primaries for its Senate race, House contests, and the governor's race on September 1, 2026, the next major date on the calendar.
Beyond Massachusetts, several governor's races remain rated as toss-ups and merit close attention as the cycle progresses: Florida, Georgia, and Ohio. Races in Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Oregon are rated as leaning toward one party, while Arizona, Michigan, and Nevada are rated as likely outcomes — worth monitoring for any movement that would shift them into more competitive territory.
With no other nationally competitive contests scheduled in the immediate week ahead, attention will likely stay on the toss-up governor's races and any early signals out of Massachusetts as candidates position themselves ahead of the September primary.
New Polls (15)
Added to the Archive (2)
Older polls newly added to the PollingSource database — fieldwork predates the last two weeks. Full results on each race page.
Rating Changes
PollingSource Poll Average: Iowa Senate N/A → Lean R
PollingSource Poll Average: Texas Senate N/A → Lean D
PollingSource Poll Average: Arizona Governor N/A → Likely D
PollingSource Poll Average: Texas Governor N/A → Lean R
PollingSource Poll Average: Pennsylvania Governor N/A → Safe D
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