Primary
Democratic Primary
Held July 21, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Nez ✓ | — | — |
Republican Primary
Held July 21, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Crane ✓ | — | — |
Libertarian Primary
Held July 21, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Flores | — | — | |
| Curtis Goodwin | — | — |
Full calendar and every race: Arizona primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
PollingSource average — trailing average of all polls from the last 30 days.
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General Election Polling Average
Average reflects all polls from the last 30 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBAO (D) partisan·D | 2026-08-24 | 500 LV | ±4.40 | Jonathan Nez 44.00% | Eli Crane 46.00% |
| GBAO (D) partisan·D | 2026-06-15 | 500 LV | ±4.40 | Jonathan Nez 41.00% | Eli Crane 44.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 AZ-02 House race?
Polling so far tested a matchup that is no longer live: Jonathan Nez is not the Democrat nominee — Jonathan Michael Nez is. In that earlier polling, Eli Crane led Jonathan Nez 46% to 44%. The PollingSource average resets once the final matchup is polled.
Is the 2026 AZ-02 House race competitive?
No — the expert consensus rates it Safe R for Republicans.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 AZ-02 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from GBAO (D) (completed August 24, 2026), found Jonathan Nez (D) at 44% and Eli Crane (R) at 46%.
When is the 2026 AZ-02 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 30 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race News
No news coverage yet for this race.