Primary
Democratic Primary
Held July 21, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Nez ✓ | — | — |
Republican Primary
Held July 21, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Crane ✓ | — | — |
Libertarian Primary
Held July 21, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Flores | — | — | |
| Curtis Goodwin | — | — |
Full calendar and every race: Arizona primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
PollingSource average — the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer (no polls in the last 30 days). This is an average, not a forecast.
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Candidates
Eli Crane Nominee Incumbent
Republican
General Election Polling Average
No scientific polls in the last 30 days — the figure is the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer when fewer exist, not a 30-day mean. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBAO (D) partisan·D | 2026-08-24 | 500 LV | ±4.40 | Jonathan Nez 44.00% | Eli Crane 46.00% |
| GBAO (D) partisan·D | 2026-06-15 | 500 LV | ±4.40 | Jonathan Nez 41.00% | Eli Crane 44.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 AZ-02 House race?
Eli Crane leads Jonathan Michael Nez 45% to 42.5% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+2.5 margin based on the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer (no polls in the last 30 days).
Is the 2026 AZ-02 House race competitive?
It is not considered a top-tier battleground: the expert consensus rates it Likely R, the current rating band. An upset is not impossible.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 AZ-02 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from GBAO (D) (completed August 24, 2026), found Jonathan Nez (D) at 44% and Eli Crane (R) at 46%.
When is the 2026 AZ-02 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average on this page is the last three qualifying scientific public polls of the locked matchup, or fewer — the newest of them is older than 30 days, so this is not a 30-day mean and it does not set the rating. We do not exclude pollsters. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Independent Expenditures Updated 3 hours ago
Top Spenders
- NO GOING BACK PAC INC. GOP-aligned $1,884,208
- SOMOS PAC Dem-aligned $742,534
- FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND GOP-aligned $642,217
- LCV VICTORY FUND Dem-aligned $526,317
- HMP Dem-aligned $482,349
- CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION GOP-aligned $290,038
- CIVIC RENEWAL FUND INC. GOP-aligned $234,363
- OUR VOICE OUR VOTE ARIZONA PAC Dem-aligned $108,000
- PROGRESSIVE TURNOUT PROJECT Dem-aligned $100,541
- AB PAC Dem-aligned $70,992
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
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