Fresh polling this week reinforces a familiar national pattern — Democrats holding a narrow generic-ballot edge — while a batch of Senate and House surveys complicate the picture in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida. Reporting also surfaced growing Republican unease with a Florida incumbent and confirmation that Minnesota's Senate contest, long assumed safe for Democrats, is drawing new scrutiny.
Generic Ballot: Democrats Maintain a Narrow National Edge
Three surveys fielded through early August keep the generic congressional ballot in Democrats' favor by margins of 2 to 7 points. Cygnal's August 7 poll of likely voters found Democrats ahead 49-42, while Morning Consult's 24,000-respondent survey, fielded through August 2, showed a tighter 46-42 spread. RMG Research's August 4 poll of registered voters found the closest margin, 47-45. The consistency across pollsters with different methodologies suggests the Democratic edge, while narrow, is not a statistical fluke.
Wisconsin House: Berman-Steil Race Tightens
A survey from Impact Research, a Democratic pollster, fielded through August 9, shows Democrat Mitchell Berman trailing Republican incumbent Bryan Steil by a single point, 49-48, in the Wisconsin 1st District race. The margin is close enough to warrant caution given the pollster's partisan affiliation, but a one-point gap in a seat Republicans have historically held comfortably signals a competitive contest worth tracking as more surveys arrive.
Florida: Republican Infighting Complicates Two House Primaries
Florida's 7th District Republican primary has drawn open opposition to incumbent Cory Mills, with Gov. Ron DeSantis stating this week he does not support Mills's reelection bid, joining other GOP leaders who have withheld endorsements. In the neighboring 6th District, gubernatorial candidate Jay Collins endorsed primary challenger Charles Gambaro against incumbent Randy Fine, citing Fine's past support for a rival candidate. Separately, general-election polling in Florida's 13th District shows Republican Anna leading Democrat Leela Gray, with a GQR survey for Democrats putting the margin at 47-44 and a Republican-aligned Fabrizio, Lee & Associates poll showing a wider 49-41 spread, both fielded through August 6.
Minnesota Senate: A Race Democrats Expected to Be Safe
New reporting this week describes the Minnesota Senate race as more competitive than Democrats anticipated, a shift attributed to state-level political turbulence and the presence of a pro-choice Republican nominee. The contest fills a seat held by retiring Sen. Tina Smith, a seat Democrats have controlled for close to two decades. No new horse-race numbers were included in this week's data, but the storyline marks a notable change in how the race is being framed heading into the fall.
Watch for additional general-election polling out of Florida's competitive House primaries and any fallout from the DeSantis-Mills split as the primary date approaches.
Polls
| National Generic RMG Research (n=2000 RV) | Democrats 47% · Republicans 45% |
| National Generic Cygnal (n=1500 LV) | Democrats 49% · Republicans 42% |
| National Generic Morning Consult (n=24000 LV) | Democrats 46% · Republicans 42% |
| AZ Governor Tarrance | Katie Hobbs 52% · Andy Biggs 48% |
| AZ Governor The Tarrance Group (R) (n=600 LV) | Katie Hobbs 52% · Andy Biggs 48% |
| AZ Governor Tarrance Group | Katie Hobbs 52% · Andy Biggs 48% |
| ID Governor Change Research (D) (n=1213 LV) | Terri Pickens 27% · Brad Little 48% |
| MI Governor Fox News | Jocelyn Benson 52% · John James 47% |
Follow the Money
Texas House Battlegrounds: Cash Reserves Diverge Sharply
Fundraising totals across nine Texas House contestants show a wide gap between money raised and money banked. Ronny Jackson, a Republican, posted the smallest receipts total of the group at $4.04 million but holds the largest war chest by far — $5.41 million cash on hand — after spending just over $2 million.
Colin Allred, a Democrat, leads all candidates in total receipts at $7.43 million but has burned through nearly all of it, leaving just $159,887 on hand against $7.27 million in disbursements. Monica De La Cruz, a Republican, and Jake Ellzey, also a Republican, sit in similar territory with $2.46 million and $2.48 million in reserves, respectively, after each raising between $4.6 million and $5.3 million.
The pattern suggests differing campaign strategies rather than uniform financial health: Jackson's low burn rate and high reserves contrast with Allred's aggressive spending pace. Vicente Gonzalez and August Pfluger occupy a middle tier, each holding above $2.5 million, while Bobby Pulido, Brandon Gill, and Mark Charles Teixeira trail with reserves between $461,164 and $1.41 million.
Headlines
- Gov. DeSantis latest to not support Rep. Mills ahead of Florida primary (The Hill)
Gov. Ron DeSantis joined other Republican leaders in declining to support Rep. Cory Mills's reelection campaign in Fl... - Jay Collins endorses Charles Gambaro’s Primary challenge of Randy Fine in CD 6 (Florida Politics)
Gubernatorial candidate Jay Collins has endorsed Charles Gambaro's primary challenge against incumbent Rep. Randy Fin... - Fry throws support behind Darline Graham’s Senate bid after primary loss (The Hill)
Rep. Russell Fry (R-S.C.) endorsed Sen. Darline Graham (R-S.C.) on Friday in her runoff election against Rep. Ralph N...
What to Watch
🗳 Voting this week- Alaska primary — Tuesday, August 18 (in 3 days)
- California primary — Tuesday, August 18 (in 3 days)
- Florida primary — Tuesday, August 18 (in 3 days)
- Wyoming primary — Tuesday, August 18 (in 3 days)
Primary Day Approaches in Four States
Voters in Alaska, Florida, and Wyoming head to the polls on August 18 for primaries spanning Senate, House, and governor contests, while California holds a special House primary the same day. These contests will begin narrowing the fields for several statewide and district-level races heading into the fall.
Governor's Races to Watch
Among the gubernatorial contests on the board, two stand out as true toss-ups: Georgia's governor's race and Ohio's governor's race. Both will warrant close attention as polling develops. A second tier of races rated Lean D or Lean R — Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Nevada, and Kansas — could tighten depending on primary outcomes and candidate positioning. Florida and Iowa's governor's races are currently rated Likely R, giving them less competitive footing heading into the fall.
What to Track This Week
With primaries landing August 18, watch turnout patterns and margins in contested primary fields, particularly where multiple candidates are seeking the same nomination. Results out of Alaska, California, Florida, and Wyoming will help clarify general-election matchups in the affected Senate, House, and governor races.
New Polls (9)
Added to the Archive (5)
Older polls newly added to the PollingSource database — fieldwork predates the last two weeks. Full results on each race page.
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