Five states hold elections Tuesday, all primaries: Michigan, Washington, Kansas, Virginia, and Missouri. Michigan's three-way Democratic Senate contest carries the most national weight, but competitive House primaries in Washington and down-ballot contests in Kansas, Virginia, and Missouri will also help set the fall map.

Michigan: A Three-Way Senate Primary With No Consensus Frontrunner

Michigan Democrats choose a nominee Tuesday for the Senate race among Abdul El-Sayed, Haley Stevens, and Mallory McMorrow, with the winner facing Republican Mike Rogers in November. Polling on the primary itself is thin in the provided data, but general-election matchup polls between El-Sayed and Rogers diverge sharply by pollster: EPIC-MRA's July 31 survey of 600 voters shows Rogers ahead 46 to 43 percent, while two partisan pollsters — Zenith Research, polling for Democrats, and SoCal Strategies' Republican-sponsored survey — show El-Sayed leading by wide double digits, 59 to 56 percent respectively. A separate SoCal Strategies poll without party sponsorship listed has Rogers up 42 to 41. The spread reflects how sponsor and methodology are shaping the numbers as much as the electorate is.

Money favors El-Sayed narrowly in total receipts, $14.5 million to Stevens' $11.9 million and McMorrow's $11.4 million, though Rogers, the only Republican Senate candidate listed, has raised $10.9 million and holds the largest cash-on-hand total of any Senate candidate in the race at $4.5 million. Politico reports Bernie Sanders's advisors see El-Sayed as a favored successor to their preferred progressive lane, while the Daily Signal frames the primary as a test of whether the party moves toward its progressive or centrist wing. Sanders has argued publicly that El-Sayed's profile can draw working-class Republican and independent votes in the general election. Both Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the general election Tilt D and Toss-up respectively, underscoring that whoever wins Tuesday inherits a competitive fall race.

Michigan's other marquee contest Tuesday is the Republican gubernatorial primary, where Politico describes John James as the frontrunner on the strength of Donald Trump's endorsement and a polling lead, even as he faces a late grassroots challenge. On the Democratic side, an EPIC-MRA poll fielded through July 31 shows Jocelyn Benson leading James 47 to 38 percent in a hypothetical general-election pairing — a reminder that Tuesday's results will only formalize one side of that eventual matchup. Watch tonight for the margin in the Democratic Senate primary and whether turnout patterns favor El-Sayed's coalition or the more institutional bases backing Stevens and McMorrow.

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Washington: A Top-Two Primary Shaping the 3rd District Rematch

Washington's primary centers on the 3rd District House race, where Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and Republican John Braun are the best-funded candidates ahead of the state's top-two format. An Emerson College poll fielded through July 10 found Braun leading a head-to-head test against Gluesenkamp Perez by a single point, 26 to 25 percent among 500 respondents, while a separate Emerson question testing Braun alone against no named Democrat showed him at 45 percent. Both Cook Political Report and Inside Elections rate the seat Lean D, with Sabato's Crystal Ball rating it Leans D as well.

Gluesenkamp Perez leads the financial picture among House candidates in the state, having raised $6.3 million with $2.1 million on hand, compared to Braun's $2 million raised and $1.1 million in cash. Other Washington Democratic House incumbents — Suzan DelBene, Kim Schrier, Pramila Jayapal, and Rick Larsen — appear in the fundraising data but face no reported primary polling in this cycle's numbers. Watch tonight for the top-two vote split in the 3rd District, which will determine the composition of November's general election under Washington's nonpartisan primary system.

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Kansas: A Safe Senate Seat, But a Governor's Race Drawing Attention

Kansas Republicans and Democrats are also voting Tuesday, with the Senate primary drawing the least competitive rating of the day's top states — Inside Elections and Cook Political Report both rate the general election Solid R, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Safe R. Republican incumbent fundraising data shows Roger Marshall with $4 million raised and a $5.4 million war chest, while Democrat Adam Hamilton has raised a comparable $4.2 million but holds less cash on hand, $1.7 million. A GBAO poll conducted for Democrats in mid-July showed Hamilton at 30 percent with no Republican comparison point provided, offering limited insight into the race's competitiveness.

The more closely watched contest is the gubernatorial primary, which Politico reports has become a proxy fight over the state's data center boom, with candidates in both parties sparring over development policy, infrastructure spending, and environmental impact. A Kansas district judge has also temporarily reinstated a three-day grace period for mail ballots ahead of Tuesday's vote, blocking a 2025 law that had shortened the deadline to 7 p.m. on election day — a late procedural change that could affect how quickly results are finalized. Watch tonight for turnout signals in the governor's race and whether the mail-ballot ruling delays a full count.

Also on the ballot today: Virginia holds primaries for its Senate and House races, and Missouri holds a House primary.

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