Today's Source

Wednesday, August 19, 2026

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Four states voted Tuesday — Florida, Alaska and Wyoming held primaries while California completed a special House election — and the night's headline came from Florida, where Democratic state Representative Angie Nixon upset Alex Vindman in the Senate primary, and from Wyoming, where President Trump's endorsed gubernatorial candidate lost. Florida's Senate matchup is now set, its governor's race moves to a Byron Donalds-David Jolly general election, and Alaska's four-way Senate primary confirmed a Mary Peltola-Dan Sullivan rematch that will be decided by ranked-choice voting in November.

Florida: Nixon Upsets Vindman, Donalds and Jolly Advance to November

Republican Ashley Moody won her primary for the Florida Senate race with 1,318,867 votes, 79.56 percent, against minor opposition. The more consequential result came on the Democratic side, where state Representative Angie Nixon defeated Alex Vindman, a retired Army officer, 703,126 votes to 552,423 — a 56-44 split with 89 percent of precincts reporting. Nixon's win sets up a general election in a state Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections all rate Likely R.

In the governor's race, Democrat David Jolly cleared his primary decisively, taking 760,073 votes for 60.97 percent against six opponents with 96.3 percent reporting. Republican Byron Donalds won a more competitive primary, finishing at 47.80 percent with 810,504 votes against Jay Susan Jay Collins's 25.15 percent and five other candidates, with 92.2 percent of precincts in. Donalds and Jolly now head to a November contest that recent polling — a Hart Research Associates survey fielded through August 13 — showed within a single point, 46-45.

Florida's House primaries produced several notable outcomes. In the open 2nd District, Austin Mike Rogers, a former staffer for Senator Rick Scott, won a crowded Republican field with 30.46 percent of the vote, edging out Keith Gross despite Gross's $12.3 million in fundraising. In the 11th District, businessman Joe Strada defeated Carey Baker — the candidate endorsed by Representative Daniel Webster — 33.50 percent to 33.04 percent, a margin of roughly 400 votes. In the open 24th District, Miami-Dade County Commissioner Oliver Gilbert led a seven-candidate Democratic field with 34.36 percent but did not clear a majority; results show no winner declared in that race. The 22nd District, rated a toss-up in the data, saw Republican Casey Askar win his primary with 30.86 percent, while Democrat Pia Dandiya took 68.57 percent on her side — that contest, along with Lean R-rated races in the 25th District (Democratic incumbent Debbie Wasserman Schultz advancing against Republican Brent Andersen) and 27th District (Republican incumbent María Elvira Salazar winning renomination with 81.32 percent), will shape Florida's House delegation in November.

Full coverage on Florida →

Wyoming: Trump-Backed Candidate Loses Governor's Primary, Hageman Advances to Senate Race

Wyoming's most consequential result came in the governor's primary, where state Senator Eric Barlow defeated Superintendent of Public Instruction Megan Degenfelder, 58,820 votes to 38,739, a 45-30 margin with 99 percent of precincts reporting. Degenfelder had President Trump's endorsement; Brent Bien finished third with 23.62 percent in the five-candidate field. Kenneth Casner is listed as the winner on the Democratic side, though the data shows zero votes recorded and 0 percent of precincts reporting for that race.

In the Wyoming Senate race, Representative Harriet Hageman won her Republican primary with 83,794 votes, 64.08 percent, against Sam Mead's 27.43 percent, setting up a general election against Democrat John James Byrd, who won his primary with 79.34 percent. The seat is rated Solid R by Cook, Safe R by Sabato's Crystal Ball and Solid R by Inside Elections. In the state's at-large House primary, Secretary of State Chuck Gray won the Republican nomination with 25.42 percent in a crowded field that included Stephen Friess at 20.40 percent and Kevin Christensen at 17.61 percent; Democrat Lisa Kinney won her primary with 77.86 percent.

Full coverage on Wyoming →

Alaska: Peltola-Sullivan Senate Rematch Confirmed, Begich Advances in House Primary

Alaska's open primary system, which advances the top four finishers regardless of party to a ranked-choice general election, produced a Senate race field led by Democrat Mary Peltola at 45.94 percent and Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan at 45.04 percent, with 0 percent of precincts reporting in the data provided. No winner has been determined in this contest under Alaska's system, and the race is rated Solid R by Inside Elections and Cook and Safe R by Sabato's Crystal Ball — ratings that sit in tension with recent polling. An Alaska Survey Research poll fielded through August 5 showed Peltola leading Sullivan 51-49 among 1,371 respondents, while a Data for Progress poll conducted for Democrats found the same order at 53-47.

In the at-large House primary, Republican incumbent Nick Begich III led with 47.83 percent, followed by independent Bill Hill at 29.51 percent; Democrat Matt Schultz trailed at 8.05 percent. As in the Senate race, no winner is indicated in the data, and Begich and Hill both advance under Alaska's format to a ranked-choice general election. The seat carries a Safe R rating with a 2024 margin of 10 points.

Results are also in from: California, where the 14th District special election remains unresolved between two Democrats — Aisha Wahab led Melissa Hernandez 51.04 percent to 48.96 percent with 62 percent of precincts reporting, a margin of roughly 1,300 votes that has not yet been called.

Full coverage on Alaska →

Full Results Analysis

Full Florida analysis →  ·  Full Wyoming analysis →  ·  Full Alaska analysis →

Polls

National Generic
Reuters/Ipsos (n=876 RV)
Democrats 41% · Republicans 36%
National Generic
Morning Consult (n=29719 LV)
Democrats 46% · Republicans 42%
National Generic
Economist/YouGov (n=1450 RV)
Democrats 46% · Republicans 39%
National Generic
Echelon Insights (n=1002 LV)
Democrats 50% · Republicans 45%
National Generic
Echelon
DEM 50% · GOP 45%
National Generic
YouGov
DEM 46% · GOP 39%
National Generic
YouGov
Democrats 46% · Republicans 39%
AR Governor
Hendrick College
Fredrick Love 40% · Sarah Huckabee Sanders 45%

Explore all polls and averages →

Follow the Money

Michigan Senate: El-Sayed Outraises Rogers, But Rogers Banks More Cash

In the Michigan Senate race, rated a Toss-up, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has out-fundraised Republican Mike Rogers by a wide margin, pulling in $14.5 million in total receipts compared to Rogers's $10.9 million. That fundraising edge hasn't translated into a cash advantage, however.

El-Sayed has burned through nearly $12 million, leaving him with just $2.6 million on hand. Rogers, by contrast, has spent far more conservatively — $6.7 million against his total haul — and enters the stretch with $4.5 million in reserve, nearly double El-Sayed's available cash.

The divergence in burn rates suggests different campaign strategies heading into the final phase: El-Sayed has spent aggressively to build his financial lead, while Rogers has preserved resources that could matter more as the race tightens.

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Headlines

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What to Watch

🗳 Voting this week

Runoffs Set for August 25

Oklahoma and South Carolina both head to runoffs on August 25. Oklahoma's runoff spans three offices — Senate, House, and governor — while South Carolina's is limited to its Senate contest. These will be the next primary-cycle results to watch after this stretch of statewide contests.

Governor's Races to Watch

Two contests carry Toss-up ratings: Georgia's governor's race and Ohio's governor's race. Neither has a clear front-runner based on current ratings, making them the marquee gubernatorial races to track in the coming weeks.

Beyond the toss-ups, several races carry lean ratings worth monitoring for movement: Arizona and New Mexico are rated Lean D, while Florida and Kansas are Lean R. Iowa, Michigan, and Nevada sit at Likely R or Likely D, giving analysts a spectrum of competitiveness to compare as more polling emerges.

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New Polls (25)

Aug 18, 2026 JL Partners Hallie Shoffner 35% Tom Cotton 51% R+16
Georgia Senate 2 polls
Aug 17, 2026 InsiderAdvantage (R) n=800 LV · ±3.5 Jon Ossoff 50% Mike Collins 43% D+7
Aug 17, 2026 InsiderAdvantage n=800 LV · ±3.5 Ossoff 50% Collins 43% D+7
Aug 12, 2026 UMass Amherst/YouGov n=800 RV · ±4.4 Ed Markey 51% John Deaton 30% D+21
Michigan Senate 2 polls
Aug 10, 2026 TIPP Insights (R) n=1,528 RV · ±2.6 Abdul El-Sayed 43% Mike Rogers 39% D+4
Aug 10, 2026 TIPP n=1,215 LV · ±2.7 El-Sayed 45% Rogers 42% D+3
Aug 17, 2026 SurveyUSA Peggy Flanagan 46% Michele Tafoya 41% D+5
Aug 17, 2026 KTSP/SurveyUSA n=661 LV · ±4.3 Peggy Flanagan 46% Michele Tafoya 41% D+5
Aug 12, 2026 Hendrick College Fredrick Love 40% Sarah Huckabee Sanders 45% R+5
Aug 12, 2026 Hendrick Collage Fredrick Love 40% Sarah Huckabee Sanders 45% R+5
Aug 13, 2026 Hart R David Jolly 46% Byron Donalds 45% D+1
Aug 13, 2026 Hart Research David Jolly 46% Byron Donalds 45% D+1
Aug 13, 2026 Hart Research Associates n=600 LV · ±4 David Jolly 46% Byron Donalds 45% D+1
Aug 17, 2026 InsiderAdvantage (R) n=800 LV · ±3.5 Keisha Lance Bottoms 46% Rick Jackson 46% Even
Aug 10, 2026 Tipp Jocelyn Benson 53% John James 37% D+16
Aug 10, 2026 TIPP Insights (R) n=1,528 RV · ±2.6 Jocelyn Benson 48% John James 34% D+14
Aug 17, 2026 SurveyUSA Amy Klobuchar 52% Lisa Demuth 36% D+16
Aug 17, 2026 KTSP/SurveyUSA n=661 LV · ±4.3 Amy Klobuchar 51% Lisa Demuth 36% D+15
Generic 7 polls
Aug 17, 2026 YouGov Democrats 46% Republicans 39% D+7
Aug 17, 2026 YouGov DEM 46% GOP 39% D+7
Aug 17, 2026 Echelon DEM 50% GOP 45% D+5
Aug 17, 2026 Echelon Insights n=1,002 LV Democrats 50% Republicans 45% D+5
Aug 17, 2026 Economist/YouGov n=1,450 RV Democrats 46% Republicans 39% D+7
Aug 17, 2026 Reuters/Ipsos n=876 RV Democrats 41% Republicans 36% D+5
Aug 16, 2026 Morning Consult n=29,719 LV Democrats 46% Republicans 42% D+4

Added to the Archive (2)

Older polls newly added to the PollingSource database — fieldwork predates the last two weeks. Full results on each race page.

Aug 2026 Alaska At-Large 1 poll added
Aug 2026 Virginia CD-05 1 poll added

Rating Changes

PollingSource Poll Average: Minnesota Governor N/A → Safe D

PollingSource Poll Average: Georgia Governor N/A → Toss-up

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