Four states hold elections Tuesday: Florida, Alaska and Wyoming are conducting primaries, while California is holding a special election for a House seat. Florida's sprawling congressional and gubernatorial primaries carry the most weight tonight, but Alaska's Senate contest and California's special House race also warrant attention as results come in.

Florida: A crowded primary field sets the fall map

Florida voters are sorting through Republican and Democratic primaries across several open and contested U.S. House seats, along with a gubernatorial primary that will set up the November matchup. In the 22nd District, an open seat rated a toss-up, a Daily Signal report describes a marine veteran leading a three-way Republican field with nearly half of GOP voters still undecided — a sign the race remains unsettled heading into tonight's count. Florida's 2nd District, where Keith Gross, a Republican, has raised $12.3 million, and the 11th District, where Republican Joe Strada leads a multi-candidate field in fundraising, are both drawing scrutiny as GOP contenders compete to succeed departing incumbents.

Down the ballot, the Florida governor's race shows Republican Byron Donalds leading Democrat David Jolly 45-38 in a Targoz Market Research poll fielded through July 26. In House polling, a Fabrizio, Lee & Associates survey has Republican Anna ahead of Democrat Leela Gray 49-41, while a GQR poll of the same contest shows a tighter 47-44 spread — a reminder that partisan pollsters on both sides are active in these primaries. Florida's 25th, 27th and 28th Districts, all rated Lean R, and the 13th District, rated Lean R with incumbent Anna Paulina Luna, round out the state's competitive House map.

Watch tonight for the outcome in the 22nd District given its toss-up rating and unsettled polling, along with which Republican emerges from the 2nd and 11th District fields where fundraising leads have not yet translated into clear front-runners.

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Alaska: Peltola-Sullivan race draws national eyes

Alaska's Senate primary has become the marquee story of an otherwise quiet ballot. Two August polls diverge sharply: Alaska Survey Research, fielded through August 5, showed Democrat Mary Peltola leading Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan 51-49, while Data for Progress, a Democratic-aligned pollster, put Sullivan ahead 47-41 in an August 4 survey and showed him at 53 in a separate release dated August 17. That spread underscores how unsettled the numbers are in a race Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections still rate Solid R or Safe R.

Money in the race remains lopsided relative to the polling drama: Sullivan has raised $9.1 million with $7.3 million on hand, while Peltola's House fundraising — she is not on the ballot for a House seat this cycle but her committee reports $18.5 million raised — reflects a well-funded operation regardless of office. Peltola has also worked to distance her campaign from a Kamala Harris-linked fundraising appeal, a move aimed at Alaska's independent-leaning electorate.

Tonight's primary results will show whether the polling volatility reflects real movement or noise from dueling partisan pollsters — a distinction that matters heading into a general election still rated safely Republican by outside forecasters.

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California: A special election and an ethics cloud

California's special House election is playing out against a backdrop of several open California House seats headed to November, including the 1st District (Likely D, following John James Gallagher's retirement), the 3rd District (Likely D, following Kevin Kiley's retirement) and the 6th District (Likely D, following Ami Bera's retirement). The 22nd District, held by Republican David Valadao, is rated a toss-up by Cook and Sabato's Crystal Ball, while Inside Elections rates it Tilt R — one of the closer House contests on California's map alongside the 45th District, rated Lean R by Cook and Inside Elections.

Fundraising in the state's House contests is led by Democrat Ro Khanna, who has raised $13.8 million with $16.9 million on hand, followed by Republican Young Kim at $8.8 million raised. Separately, the House Ethics Committee announced it is investigating Democratic Rep. Jimmy Gomez over allegations of sexual misconduct, a development unrelated to tonight's ballot but one likely to shadow California's congressional delegation in coming weeks.

Watch the 22nd District result closely given its toss-up rating, and note turnout patterns in the open seats vacated by Gallagher, Kiley, Bera and Nancy Pelosi's 11th District, which remains rated Safe D despite the open-seat status.

Also on the ballot today: Wyoming voters are casting primary ballots in Senate, House and governor's races.

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