The generic congressional ballot continues to show Democrats with a mid-single-digit edge nationally, while fresh state-level surveys out this week confirm several marquee Senate and governor's races remain genuinely competitive rather than settled. Meanwhile, fallout continues from Wisconsin's Democratic primary upset, and new questions have emerged about Ohio Republican Max Miller's House seat.
Generic Ballot: Democrats Hold a Mid-Single-Digit Edge
Recent surveys of the generic congressional ballot show Democrats ahead by margins ranging from 2 to 6 points. Political Polls, fielded through August 10, put Democrats up 46-40. Napolitan, fielded through August 4, showed a narrower 47-45 edge, while RMG's survey over the same period found an identical 47-45 split. AlphaRoc's August 8 poll showed a wider gap, 49-44. The range across pollsters reflects continued uncertainty about turnout composition heading into the fall, though every recent survey shows Democrats nominally ahead.
Maine Senate: Jackson and Collins Locked in a Toss-up
Two surveys fielded through August 10 in the Maine Senate race show Democrat Troy Jackson at 48 percent against Republican Susan Collins at 46 percent — a Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. poll and a separate Fox survey both landed on the same numbers. The race carries a Toss-up rating in PollingSource's average, and the tightness of both surveys, conducted by pollsters with different partisan lean, suggests the margin is real rather than an artifact of a single poll's methodology.
Wisconsin Governor: Crowley Emerges as Nominee After Hong's Primary Loss
Democrat David Crowley, the Milwaukee County Executive, won Wisconsin's Democratic gubernatorial primary with 39.8 percent of the vote, defeating Francesca Hong despite her double-digit polling leads throughout the race, according to reporting from RealClearPolitics and the Daily Signal. Two recent polls now test Crowley against Republican Tom Tiffany in the Wisconsin governor's race: an OSZ survey and a GBAO poll, the latter conducted for Democrats, both show Crowley leading 47-44. Sabato's Crystal Ball has since moved the race to Leans Democratic, citing the primary outcome. Representative Ro Khanna, who had endorsed Hong, defended the endorsement after her loss, arguing critics mischaracterized her policy positions on healthcare, childcare, and data centers.
Ohio: Acton's Voter ID Stance and Miller's Ballot Troubles
Ohio Democratic gubernatorial nominee Amy Acton has endorsed Issue 3, a measure that would enshrine voter ID requirements in the state constitution, a position that departs from typical Democratic opposition to such laws and has drawn criticism from within her own party, according to the Daily Signal. A Tulchin Research poll conducted for Democrats shows Acton at 46 percent against Republican Vivek Ramaswamy's 44 percent in the Ohio governor's race, a margin within the poll's likely error range. Separately, in Ohio's 7th District, Republican Representative Max Miller has passed the deadline to withdraw from the general election ballot despite calls for his resignation and abuse allegations from his ex-wife; a Bedrock Polling survey conducted for Democrats shows Democrat Brian Poindexter leading Miller 43-35 in the 7th District race, which carries a Likely D rating in PollingSource's average.
Watch tomorrow for additional post-primary polling in Wisconsin as Crowley's matchup against Tiffany firms up, along with any fundraising disclosures that could clarify whether Ohio's Miller can sustain a viable campaign through the fall.
Polls
| National Generic Political Polls | Democrats 46% · Republicans 40% |
| National Generic Napolitan | Democrats 47% · Republicans 45% |
| National Generic Siena | Kathy Hochul 49% · Bruce Blakeman 39% |
| National Generic AlphaRoc | DEM 49% · GOP 44% |
| National Generic YouGov (n=1397 RV) | Democrats 45% · Republicans 40% |
| National Generic Ipsos (n=2059 RV) | Democrats 49% · Republicans 44% |
| National Generic YouGov (n=1523 RV) | Democrats 45% · Republicans 40% |
| National Generic Polling USA | DEM 48% · GOP 38% |
Follow the Money
Illinois House Field: A Crowded Democratic Money Race
Illinois' House landscape, which includes at least one contest rated Lean D, shows a wide spread in Democratic fundraising totals. Brad Schneider leads Democrats in receipts with $3 million, followed closely by Daniel Biss at $2.95 million and Nikki Budzinski at $2.89 million, but their cash positions diverge sharply — Budzinski holds $2.63 million on hand versus just $262,000 for Biss.
On the Republican side, Darin LaHood reported $3.67 million in receipts, the highest single total in the dataset, and finished with $6.75 million banked — more than double any Democrat's reserve. Bill Foster is the closest Democrat in cash on hand at $2.51 million, having spent only about half of his $2.18 million in receipts.
Several Democrats, including Donna Miller and Melissa Luburich Bean, ended with minimal reserves — $40,545 and $144,529 respectively — after spending nearly all they raised. Lauren Underwood, Eric Sorensen, and Sean Casten each raised between $2.1 million and $2.4 million, with Sorensen retaining the most cash among that group at $1.33 million.
Headlines
- Why Hong Lost: Voters Care About Police and Thanksgiving (RealClearPolitics)
Wisconsin Democrat Francesca Hong unexpectedly lost her party's gubernatorial nomination despite commanding double-di... - Are Ohio Democrats in ‘Disarray’ Over Amy Acton’s Support for Voter ID? (Daily Signal)
Ohio Democratic gubernatorial nominee Dr. Amy Acton has endorsed Issue 3, which would enshrine voter ID requirements ... - Max Miller's Reelection Chances Look Increasingly Bleak (RealClearPolitics)
Ohio Rep. Max Miller has passed the deadline to remove himself from the general election ballot despite bipartisan ca...
What to Watch
🗳 Voting this week- Alaska primary — Tuesday, August 18 (in 5 days)
- California primary — Tuesday, August 18 (in 5 days)
- Florida primary — Tuesday, August 18 (in 5 days)
- Wyoming primary — Tuesday, August 18 (in 5 days)
Primary Day Approaches in Four States
Voters in Alaska, Florida, and Wyoming head to the polls on August 18 for primaries spanning Senate, House, and governor contests. California will hold a special primary that same day for a House seat. These contests will begin narrowing the fields for several statewide and federal races heading into the fall.
Governor's Races Worth Tracking
Florida's primary will also shape its governor's race, currently rated Likely R. Beyond next week's contests, a cluster of gubernatorial races merits continued attention heading toward November: Arizona and Georgia are both rated Toss-up, while contests in Kansas and Nevada lean Republican and Maine, Minnesota, and New Mexico lean Democratic. Iowa's race is rated Likely R, and Michigan's is Likely D. With ratings this tight in several states, late-summer developments could shift the competitive landscape further.
New Polls (27)
Added to the Archive (18)
Older polls newly added to the PollingSource database — fieldwork predates the last two weeks. Full results on each race page.
Rating Changes
PollingSource Poll Average: Georgia Governor N/A → Toss-up
PollingSource Poll Average: New York Governor N/A → Safe D
PollingSource Poll Average: Kansas Senate N/A → Toss-up
PollingSource Poll Average: Maine Senate N/A → Toss-up
PollingSource Poll Average: Ohio House CD-07 N/A → Likely D
PollingSource Poll Average: Pennsylvania Governor N/A → Safe D
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