Exactly 1 state holds elections today: Tennessee, which is conducting primary day voting for its Senate, House, and gubernatorial nominations. The results will shape both an open-seat gubernatorial race and several House primaries where local endorsements have split from national ones.

Tennessee: Blackburn's Numbers Swing Wildly, Ogles Faces a Governor's Rebuke

Tennessee Republicans are picking nominees for governor, a U.S. Senate seat, and multiple U.S. House seats, with Marsha Blackburn the central figure in the governor's race. Polling on her primary standing is erratic depending on the pollster: Wick puts her at 51 percent, while Fabrizio, Lee & Associates, a Republican firm, has her at just 42 percent, and OnMessage Inc., another GOP-aligned pollster, shows her lowest at 35 percent. That range — 16 points across three surveys taken within a week of each other — suggests real uncertainty about turnout and consolidation rather than a settled frontrunner.

Down-ballot, the marquee story is in the 5th District, where Republican Governor Bill Lee has endorsed Charlie Hatcher over incumbent Andy Ogles, breaking from Donald Trump's endorsement of Ogles. Lee cited a 25-year friendship with Hatcher in making the split. A Tusk Strategies poll from late July shows Ogles at just 37 percent, a soft number for an incumbent facing a primary challenge with an in-party endorsement working against him. The Ogles-Hatcher contest will be the night's clearest test of whether a gubernatorial endorsement can counter a presidential one within the same primary electorate.

Money is concentrated at the Senate level, where Bill Hagerty has raised $7.16 million with $5.23 million cash on hand — by far the largest war chest in the state's federal contests. On the House side, Democrat Chaz Molder leads all House fundraisers with $2.6 million raised, ahead of Republican incumbents Tim Burchett ($2.43 million) and Charles Fleischmann, who despite lower total receipts holds the largest House cash reserve at $4.84 million. Justin Pearson, also a Democrat, has raised $2.34 million. Both Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the Senate seat Solid R and Safe R respectively, so the fundraising race there is more about the primary than the general. Tonight, watch turnout patterns in the 5th District closely, along with how the newly implemented congressional map — upheld by a federal judicial panel last month despite challenges over its treatment of a majority-Black Memphis district — shapes results in districts it redrew.

Also on the ballot today: no other states are holding elections.

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