Exactly 1 state voted yesterday: Tennessee, which held primaries for governor, U.S. Senate, and every U.S. House seat. The night's biggest surprise came in the 5th Congressional District, where Trump-endorsed incumbent Andy Ogles lost his Republican primary to former Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher, while Marsha Blackburn secured the Republican gubernatorial nomination in a fractured three-way field.
Tennessee: Blackburn Claims Governor's Nomination, Ogles Falls to Hatcher
The night's most consequential result came in the Tennessee governor's race, where Republican Marsha Blackburn won her primary with 319,874 votes, or 43.66 percent, fending off John Rose, who took 33.00 percent, and Monty Fritts, who finished at 23.34 percent. The three-way split left Blackburn well short of a majority but comfortably ahead of her nearest rival by more than 78,000 votes. On the Democratic side, Jerri Green won her primary decisively, taking 68.93 percent of the vote against four opponents, none of whom cleared 18 percent. Blackburn and Green will meet in November.
In the Senate primary, Democrat Marquita Bradshaw won renomination with 193,129 votes, or 54.69 percent, against three challengers, none of whom reached 20 percent. Bradshaw will face Republican Bill Hagerty, who ran unopposed in his primary and enters the general election with $7.16 million raised and $5.23 million cash on hand — the largest war chest of any candidate on the state's federal ballot this cycle. Both Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the Tennessee Senate race Safe Republican, and Inside Elections calls it Solid R, leaving little suspense about the eventual outcome despite Bradshaw's clear primary win.
The night's clearest upset came in the 5th District, where Charlie Hatcher defeated sitting Rep. Andy Ogles 36,524 votes to 32,078, a 53-47 margin. The result confirms the soft standing suggested by a late-July Tusk Strategies poll that had shown Ogles at just 37 percent. Hatcher will face Democrat Chaz Molder, who won his own primary with 17,598 votes, or 40.52 percent, over Yolanda Cooper-Sutton's 32.74 percent. Molder enters the general election as the best-funded House candidate in the state, having raised $2.6 million with $1.48 million cash on hand — more than any Republican House candidate on the ballot, including Hatcher's rival-turned-general-election-opponent.
Elsewhere on the House map, Republican Johnny Garrett won a four-way primary in the 6th District with 37,660 votes, or 43.57 percent, edging Van Hilleary's 29.79 percent to claim the nomination for the seat being vacated by John Rose. Garrett will face Democrat Mike Croley, who won his primary with 29.03 percent in a closely bunched three-way Democratic field where the top three finishers were separated by fewer than six points. In the 9th District, Democrat Justin Pearson won his primary with 31,891 votes, or 65.77 percent, while Republican Brent Taylor claimed his nomination with 31,099 votes, or 45.91 percent, over Todd Warner's 26.32 percent. Pearson and Taylor will contest a district that has been redrawn to favor Republicans, a shift from the seat's previous Democratic lean under retiring Rep. Steve Cohen.
In the 4th District, Republican incumbent Scott DesJarlais won renomination easily with 39,491 votes, or 65.90 percent, and will face Democrat Victoria Broderick, who won a four-way Democratic primary with 37.88 percent. In the 1st, 3rd, 7th, and 8th Districts, Democratic primaries were decided by comfortable margins: Kristi Burke took 76.63 percent in the 1st, Anna Golladay won 79.61 percent in the 3rd, Darden Copeland claimed 39.86 percent in a crowded 7th District field, and Heidi Kuhn won 51.81 percent in the 8th. Turnout figures by precinct were not available in reported results, but the vote totals across contested primaries — ranging from roughly 30,000 to nearly 70,000 per district — suggest a typical August primary electorate rather than an unusually high-turnout night.
Taken together, the results confirm a Republican gubernatorial nominee who won a plurality rather than a majority, a Senate race rated safely Republican by every outside forecaster in the data, and a House map where the 5th and 9th Districts stand out as the two contests most likely to draw sustained general-election attention — the former because an incumbent lost his primary, the latter because redistricting has changed the partisan lean of a longtime Democratic-held seat.
Results are also in from: no other states held elections yesterday.
Full Results Analysis
Full Tennessee analysis →Polls
| AZ Governor Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) (n=913 LV) | Katie Hobbs 52% · Andy Biggs 44% |
| IA Governor Emerson (n=712 LV) | Rob Sand 48% · Zach Lahn 43% |
| CO House Keating Research (D) (n=500 LV) | Dwayne Romero 45% · Jeff Hurd 46% |
| OH House co/efficient (R) (n=615 LV) | Brian Poindexter 47% · Max Miller 33% |
| OH House co/efficient (R) | Brian Poindexter 44% · Max Miller 39% |
| IA Senate Emerson (n=712 LV) | Josh Turek 45% · Ashley Hinson 48% |
| ME Senate Hart Research (D) (n=802 LV) | Troy Jackson 49% · Susan Collins 45% |
| TX Senate YouGov Blue (D) (n=1001 RV) | James Talarico 48% · Ken Paxton 45% |
Follow the Money
New York House Money Race: A Toss-Up District With Disparate War Chests
Fundraising in New York's competitive House contest, rated a Toss-up, shows a wide gap between the top two money-raisers. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a Democrat, leads all listed candidates with $32.6 million in total receipts and $15.96 million cash on hand, dwarfing every other figure in the dataset. Hakeem Jeffries, also a Democrat, follows with $14.9 million raised but just $5 million remaining after $14.85 million in disbursements — a far higher burn rate than Ocasio-Cortez's roughly 63 percent spend-down.
On the Republican side, Anthony Thomas Constantino raised $9.46 million with $3.04 million on hand, while Michael Vincent Lawler posted $8.17 million raised but has spent only $3.5 million, leaving $4.84 million in reserve — the healthiest cash position among Republicans in the data.
Further down the list, Democrats Ritchie John Torres, Blake Gendebien, Tom Suozzi, Laura Gillen, Josh Riley, and Patrick Ryan each raised between $4.7 million and $6.9 million, with Torres notably holding $13.99 million in cash despite lower total receipts — a sign of comparatively light spending to date.
Headlines
- ‘Ready to fight’: Mike Gottlieb becomes latest lawmaker to endorse Alex Vindman for Senate (Florida Politics)
State Representative Mike Gottlieb has endorsed Democrat Alex Vindman's 2024 Senate campaign in Florida, joining a gr... - Julian Beaudion becomes the fifth major or minor party U.S. Senate nominee to withdraw from a general election this year (Ballotpedia News)
Julian Beaudion withdrew from the South Dakota Democratic U.S. Senate race on August 4, marking the fifth major or mi... - Columbia mayor wins Democratic primary for Ogles seat in Tennessee (The Hill)
Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder (D) won the Democratic primary for Tennessee's 5th Congressional District, advancing to fa...
What to Watch
🗳 Voting this week- Hawaii primary — Saturday, August 8 (TOMORROW)
- Alabama primary — Tuesday, August 11 (in 4 days)
- Connecticut primary — Tuesday, August 11 (in 4 days)
- Minnesota primary — Tuesday, August 11 (in 4 days)
- Vermont primary — Tuesday, August 11 (in 4 days)
- Wisconsin primary — Tuesday, August 11 (in 4 days)
Primary Season Opens Across Six States
The next week brings a cluster of primary contests. Hawaii votes August 8 in House and gubernatorial primaries. Three days later, on August 11, primaries follow in Alabama (a special election), Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin, with House and governor contests on most ballots and Minnesota and Vermont also settling Senate primaries.
Minnesota's Primary Sets Up a Lean-D Governor's Race
Minnesota's August 11 primary will determine the field for a governor's race currently rated Lean D. Results there will clarify who advances into the general election matchup in a state where Democrats hold a rating advantage but not a lock.
Governor's Races to Watch Through the Fall
Beyond this week's primaries, several gubernatorial contests remain closely watched. Arizona and Florida are rated Toss-up. Georgia and Michigan lean Democratic, while Nevada, Kansas, and Iowa lean or lean-likely Republican. These ratings will be tested as nominees are finalized through the summer primary calendar.
New Polls (6)
Added to the Archive (1)
Older polls newly added to the PollingSource database — fieldwork predates the last two weeks. Full results on each race page.
Rating Changes
PollingSource Poll Average: Iowa Governor N/A → Likely R
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