Today's Source

Saturday, August 8, 2026

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Exactly 1 state holds elections today: Hawaii, which is conducting primary day voting to select nominees for governor and its U.S. House seats. The Democratic primary in the 2nd Congressional District is the marquee contest, pitting a crowded field of sitting officeholders against one another in a race that will effectively decide the general election in a heavily Democratic state.

Hawaii: A Crowded Democratic Field Fights for the 2nd District

The night's central contest is Hawaii's 2nd District primary, where Democratic Representative Jill Tokuda faces a field that includes former Representative Ed Case, state Senator Jarrett Keohokalole, and state Representative Della Belatti. A late-July survey from Blueprint Polling, a Democratic firm, showed Keohokalole at 47 percent, though the poll's sample size of 278 respondents limits how much weight that single number can carry against a field this large.

Money in the race is split unevenly. Case leads all candidates in total receipts with just over $1.09 million raised and $599,649 still on hand, giving him the largest reserve heading into election night. Keohokalole has raised nearly as much, at $963,458, but has burned through most of it, reporting just $81,387 in cash on hand. Tokuda has banked $820,678 in receipts with $570,354 remaining, putting her fundraising position closer to Case's than to Keohokalole's. Belatti trails badly on money, with $172,458 raised and only $38,612 left to spend. On the Republican side, Brenton Awa has raised $122,614 with $16,100 on hand.

What to watch tonight is turnout and consolidation among the four leading Democrats — with no runoff mechanism in a normal primary, a fractured vote could allow a candidate with a plurality well short of 50 percent to claim the nomination outright. Given the financial disparity between Keohokalole's polling lead and his depleted campaign account, his ability to communicate with voters down the stretch will be worth watching against Case's better-funded, better-cash-positioned campaign.

Also on the ballot today: Hawaii voters are also deciding a Democratic primary for governor, though no polling or fundraising data on that contest was available ahead of election night.

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Real-time vote counts updated every 5 minutes after polls close. Polls close at 6:00 PM HST.

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Polls

TX Governor
Texas A&M/Siena (n=619 LV)
Hinojosa 45% · Abbott 46%
TX Governor
Texas A&M University/ReconMR/Siena University (n=619 LV)
Gina Hinojosa 45% · Greg Abbott 46%
FL House
Patriot Polling (R) (n=922 V)
Yen Bailey 35% · Keith Gross 62%
FL House
Patriot Polling (R) (n=922 V)
Brice Barnes 39% · Keith Gross 60%
FL House
Patriot Polling (R) (n=922 V)
Amanda Green 37% · Keith Gross 61%
FL House
Patriot Polling (R) (n=922 V)
Nic Zateslo 39% · Keith Gross 59%
FL House
MDW Communications (D) (n=758 V)
Brice Barnes 30% · Evan Power 29%
KY House
DCCC (D) (n=474 V)
Zach Dembo 47% · Ralph Alvarado 47%

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Follow the Money

New Jersey's Crowded House Map: A Fundraising Gap Emerges

Republican Thomas H. Kean Jr. has raised $4.89 million with $3.63 million cash on hand, giving him one of the strongest financial positions among the state's House candidates. His fellow Republican, Jeff Van Drew, trails well behind with $1.93 million raised and $1.54 million on hand.

On the Democratic side, no single candidate matches Kean's war chest, though the party's totals are spread across a wide field. Josh Gottheimer leads Democrats in cash on hand with $12.77 million despite raising slightly less than Kean in total receipts, reflecting heavy spending already logged at $12.70 million. Other Democrats — including Rebecca Bennett, Nelida Pou, Frank Pallone Jr., LaMonica McIver, Rob Menendez, Analilia Mejia, and Donald W. Norcross — report receipts ranging from roughly $1.6 million to $4.3 million, with cash-on-hand figures trailing well below both Kean and Gottheimer.

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Headlines

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What to Watch

🗳 Voting this week

Primary Season Opens Across Five States

The next week brings the first wave of state primaries, starting with Hawaii's House and gubernatorial contests on August 8. Three days later, on August 11, voters in Alabama, Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin head to the polls. Alabama's contest is a special election; the other four states are holding standard primaries covering combinations of Senate, House, and governor races. Minnesota and Vermont voters will decide nominees in all three categories, while Connecticut and Wisconsin primaries center on House and governor fields.

Minnesota's Governor Race in Focus

Minnesota's primary carries added weight given the state's governor's race, currently rated Lean D. The outcome of the nominating contest will shape how competitive the general election becomes heading into fall.

Governor Races to Watch Beyond the Primaries

Away from this week's calendar, the closest contests remain Arizona and Florida, both rated Toss-up, alongside Georgia, Lean D. Watch how nominating outcomes in Minnesota and Connecticut this week ripple into the broader map of Lean and Likely ratings across Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, New Mexico, and Nevada.

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New Polls (8)

Aug 1, 2026 Change Research (D) n=967 V · ±3.4 Roy Cooper 50% Michael Whatley 41% D+9
Texas Senate 1 poll
Jul 30, 2026 Texas A&M University/ReconMR/Siena University n=619 LV · ±4.7 James Talarico 47% Ken Paxton 43% D+4
Jul 30, 2026 Texas A&M University/ReconMR/Siena University n=619 LV · ±4.7 Gina Hinojosa 45% Greg Abbott 46% R+1
Florida CD-02 4 polls
Jul 26, 2026 Patriot Polling (R) n=922 V · ±3 Nic Zateslo 39% Keith Gross 59% R+20
Jul 26, 2026 Patriot Polling (R) n=922 V · ±3 Amanda Green 37% Keith Gross 61% R+24
Jul 26, 2026 Patriot Polling (R) n=922 V · ±3 Brice Barnes 39% Keith Gross 60% R+21
Jul 26, 2026 Patriot Polling (R) n=922 V · ±3 Yen Bailey 35% Keith Gross 62% R+27
Jul 30, 2026 DCCC (D) n=474 V · ±4.5 Zach Dembo 47% Ralph Alvarado 47% Even

Added to the Archive (1)

Older polls newly added to the PollingSource database — fieldwork predates the last two weeks. Full results on each race page.

Jun 2026 Florida CD-02 1 poll added

Rating Changes

PollingSource Poll Average: Florida House CD-02 N/A → Safe R

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