Tennessee District 5

TN-05 • 2026 Election
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Primary

Primary election: Thursday, August 6, 2026

Full calendar and every race: Tennessee primary guide

Race Overview

Incumbent
Andy Ogles
Party
Republican
Current Rating
Likely R our polls experts: Safe R
Open Seat
No
Cook PVI
R+12

PollingSource Rating

Likely R
Our polling average R+6.0 · 1 polls

General Election Polling Trend

PollingSource average — trailing average of all polls from the last 90 days.

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Expert Ratings

Consensus Rating

Safe R

Individual forecaster ratings will be updated as they become available.

Candidates

Andy Ogles

Andy Ogles Incumbent

Republican
Total Raised: $590,480
Cash on Hand: $67,235
Chaz Molder

Chaz Molder

Democrat
Total Raised: $2,490,106
Cash on Hand: $1,556,521

James Torino

Democrat
Total Raised: $118,884
Cash on Hand: $71,827

Joyce Neal

Democrat
Total Raised: $8,300
Cash on Hand: $-1,728

Mike Cortese

Democrat
Total Raised: $714,613
Cash on Hand: $157,102

Rachel Hurley

Democrat
Total Raised: $30,543
Cash on Hand: $11,724

Charlie Hatcher

Republican
Total Raised: $694,479
Cash on Hand: $186,563

General Election Polling Average

Democrat
41.0%
Republican
47.0%
Margin
R+6.0
Last Poll
May 13, 2026

Average reflects all polls from the last 90 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →

PollsterDateSampleMoEDemRep
Impact Research (D) partisan·D 2026-05-13 558 LV ±4.10 Chaz Molder 41.00% Andy Ogles 47.00%

Questions About This Race

Who is winning the 2026 TN-05 House race?

Andy Ogles leads Chaz Molder 47% to 41% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+6.0 margin based on 1 poll from the last 90 days.

Is the 2026 TN-05 House race competitive?

It is not considered a top-tier battleground: the PollingSource polling average rates it Likely R, meaning Republicans are clearly favored but an upset is not impossible.

What does the latest poll of the 2026 TN-05 House race say?

The most recent public poll, from Impact Research (D) (completed May 13, 2026), found Chaz Molder (D) at 41% and Andy Ogles (R) at 47%.

When is the 2026 TN-05 House race decided?

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

How is the PollingSource average calculated?

The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 90 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.

Race News

No news coverage yet for this race.