Arkansas District 2

AR-02 • 2026 Election
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Primary

Democratic Primary

Held March 3, 2026.

CandidateVotes%
Chris Jones 47,512 92.6%
Zack Huffman 3,806 7.4%

Republican Primary

Held March 3, 2026.

CandidateVotes%
French Hill 49,079 76.8%
Chase McDowell 14,830 23.2%

Full calendar and every race: Arkansas primary guide

Race Overview

Incumbent
French Hill
Party
Republican
Current Rating
Likely R our polls experts: Safe R
Open Seat
No
Cook PVI
R+12

PollingSource Rating

Likely R
Our polling average D+4.0 · 1 polls
One poll does not set the band. The average above leans the other way, so this rating holds one step off the expert consensus (Safe R) until more polling arrives — how we rate races.

General Election Polling Trend

PollingSource average — trailing average of all polls from the last 30 days.

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Expert Ratings

Expert Consensus Rating

Safe R

Individual forecaster ratings will be updated as they become available.

Candidates

French Hill Nominee Incumbent

Republican
Total Raised: $4,421,510
Cash on Hand: $2,967,541

Chris Jones Nominee

Democrat
Total Raised: $1,174,414
Cash on Hand: $191,398

General Election Polling Average

Democrat
48.0%
Republican
44.0%
Margin
D+4.0
Last Poll
Aug 13, 2026

Average reflects all polls from the last 30 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →

PollsterDateSampleMoEDemRep
Hendrix College 2026-08-13 1112 LV ±5.30 Chris Jones 48.00% French Hill 44.00%

Questions About This Race

Who is winning the 2026 AR-02 House race?

Chris Jones leads French Hill 48% to 44% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+4.0 margin based on 1 poll from the last 30 days.

Is the 2026 AR-02 House race competitive?

It is not considered a top-tier battleground: PollingSource rates it Likely R, meaning Republicans are clearly favored but an upset is not impossible. The polling average currently points the other way (D+4.0), but it rests on 1 poll — a single poll never sets the band on its own, so the rating holds one step off the expert consensus (Safe R) until more polling arrives.

What does the latest poll of the 2026 AR-02 House race say?

The most recent public poll, from Hendrix College (completed August 13, 2026), found Chris Jones (D) at 48% and French Hill (R) at 44%.

When is the 2026 AR-02 House race decided?

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

How is the PollingSource average calculated?

The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 30 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.

Race News

No news coverage yet for this race.