The generic congressional ballot continues to show Democrats with a mid-to-high single-digit edge nationally, but the more consequential story today plays out at the state level, where three governor's races and a cluster of primary contests in New Hampshire and Massachusetts illustrate how uneven the battlefield remains heading into the fall.
Arizona Governor: Pollster Spread Widens
Three surveys of the Arizona governor's race released this week show Democratic incumbent Katie Hobbs leading Republican Andy Biggs, but by wildly different margins. A Noble Predictive Insights poll completed August 13 has Hobbs up 48-35, a Kreate Strategies survey from August 16 shows a tighter 45-40 spread, and a NextGen poll fielded through August 19 puts the race at just 39-38. The 13-point gap between the widest and narrowest results underscores how differently pollsters are modeling turnout in this race, which PollingSource's poll average currently rates Likely D.
Michigan's Statewide Races: Democrats Ahead, Data Centers Emerge as Flashpoint
Polling from Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research, fielded through August 11, shows Democrat Jocelyn Benson leading Republican John James 49-44 in the Michigan governor's race, while the same survey has Democrat Abdul El-Sayed edging Republican Mike Rogers 48-47 in the Michigan Senate race, which PollingSource rates a Toss-up. Substantively, Rogers has staked out a position calling for a one-year moratorium on new data center construction in the state, a stance that reflects broader unease in battleground states over the infrastructure demands of the AI boom and is becoming a live point of contention in the Senate contest.
New Hampshire: Primary Fields Take Shape Ahead of September Vote
Saint Anselm College polling released today gives a detailed look at New Hampshire's primary landscape. In the Democratic Senate primary, Chris Pappas leads with 59 percent, while on the House side Maggie Goodlander holds a wide 66 percent lead in her party's primary and Maura Sullivan sits at 26 percent in a separate Democratic House primary survey. On the Republican side, Anthony DiLorenzo polls at 30 percent and Lily Tang Williams at 53 percent in their respective House primary fields. Looking past the primary, the same Saint Anselm survey shows Republican Kelly Ayotte leading Democrat Cinde Warmington 49-38 in the New Hampshire governor's race, and Pappas leading Republican John E. Sununu 59-54 in a general-election Senate matchup.
Massachusetts Senate: Markey and Moulton's Final Debate
Democratic incumbent Ed Markey and Representative Seth Moulton met for their last televised debate before the Massachusetts Senate primary, with the two clashing directly ahead of the vote. A Public Policy Polling survey of the Democratic primary, fielded through August 18, shows Markey at 59 percent. Moulton's challenge has been characterized as a longshot bid against the 80-year-old incumbent, and the debate marked the final head-to-head opportunity for Moulton to close the gap before voters decide.
Watch for continued developments in the South Carolina Republican Senate primary, where the pro-life movement has split between Lindsey Graham and Ralph Norman, and for any additional polling on the Virginia House delegation as Republicans weigh whether ballot-measure complexity will drive turnout in their favor.
Polls
| National Generic Emerson | DEM 51% · GOP 43% |
| National Generic Fabrizio | Democratic 50% · Republican 45% |
| National Generic Emerson (n=1000 LV) | Democrats 51% · Republicans 43% |
| AZ Governor NextGen | Katie Hobbs 39% · Andy Biggs 38% |
| AZ Governor Kreate Strategies | Katie Hobbs 45% · Andy Biggs 40% |
| AZ Governor Noble Predictive Insights (n=923 LV) | Katie Hobbs 48% · Andy Biggs 35% |
| AZ Governor Kreate S | Katie Hobbs 45% · Andy Biggs 40% |
| AZ Governor Noble predictive | Katie Hobbs 48% · Andy Biggs 35% |
Follow the Money
Michigan's House Money Race: A Cash-Burn Divide
Financial disclosures across Michigan's House delegation show a wide gap in spending discipline. Lisa McClain, a Republican, has burned through $4.3 million of the $5.2 million she's raised — an 82 percent disbursement rate that leaves her with just $1.5 million on hand. Rashida Tlaib, a Democrat, has spent even more relative to fundraising, disbursing $3.6 million against $2.8 million in receipts, dipping into cash reserves to do it.
By contrast, Kristen McDonald Rivet, a Democrat, has kept spending tight, disbursing just $1.4 million of $5.6 million raised and banking $4.3 million — the largest war chest in the dataset. Tom Barrett, a Republican, shows a similar pattern, spending only about 55 percent of his $6.3 million haul.
The contrast suggests divergent campaign strategies heading into the fall: some Michigan candidates are stockpiling for a late push, while McClain and Tlaib are already spending aggressively relative to their totals raised.
Headlines
- Markey, Moulton lock horns ahead of Massachusetts Senate primary: 3 takeaways from last debate (The Hill)
Rep. Seth Moulton and Sen. Ed Markey clashed in their final Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary debate, with the ... - Rogers pushing for 1-year pause on data center construction (The Hill)
GOP Senate nominee Mike Rogers in Michigan is calling for a one-year moratorium on data center construction, reflecti... - Virginia’s Deliberately Confusing Constitutional Amendments (Daily Signal)
Virginia's ballot includes three constitutional amendments that Republicans argue are deliberately confusing, which c...
What to Watch
🗳 Voting this week- Oklahoma runoff — Tuesday, August 25 (in 4 days)
- South Carolina runoff — Tuesday, August 25 (in 4 days)
What to Watch
Runoff season resumes on August 25, when Oklahoma and South Carolina hold nominating contests to settle primaries left undecided in the initial round. Oklahoma's runoff spans Senate, House, and governor contests, while South Carolina's is confined to its Senate race. Both outcomes will shape general-election matchups in states that don't typically draw national attention, making the runoff results worth flagging even before broader polling emerges.
Beyond the runoffs, several governor's races remain the most competitive on the board. Ohio and Georgia are rated toss-ups, the tightest classification in the current field, while Kansas and Florida sit at Lean R and Maine and New Mexico at Lean D — margins narrow enough that late movement could flip the advantage. Arizona and Michigan lean more comfortably toward Democrats at Likely D, and Iowa and Nevada favor Republicans at Likely R. With no debates or polling releases specified for the coming week, the runoff results themselves are the most concrete data points on the immediate horizon.
New Polls (19)
Rating Changes
PollingSource Poll Average: Arkansas House CD-02 N/A → Likely R
PollingSource Poll Average: New York House CD-21 N/A → Toss-up
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