Primary
Democratic Primary
Held March 3, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico ✓ | 1,212,945 | 53.2% | |
| Jasmine Crockett | 1,068,822 | 46.8% |
Republican Runoff
Held May 26, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Paxton ✓ | 890,449 | 63.8% | |
| John Cornyn | 504,329 | 36.2% |
Full calendar and every race: Texas primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
PollingSource average — trailing average of all polls from the last 30 days.
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General Election Polling Average
Average reflects all polls from the last 30 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Data | 2026-09-26 | 698 LV | ±4.00 | James Talarico 47.00% | Ken Paxton 45.00% |
| Texas Public Opinion Research (D) | 2026-09-22 | 1007 LV | ±3.60 | James Talarico 49.00% | Ken Paxton 44.00% |
| Marist University | 2026-09-20 | 1139 RV | ±4.40 | James Talarico 50.00% | Ken Paxton 44.00% |
| Texas Southern University | 2026-09-19 | 1800 LV | ±2.30 | James Talarico 47.00% | Ken Paxton 46.00% |
| Trafalgar Group (R) partisan·R ±1.8 | 2026-09-17 | 1079 LV | ±2.90 | James Talarico 46.00% | Ken Paxton 45.00% |
| Emerson ±2.7 | 2026-09-14 | 1000 LV | ±3.00 | James Talarico 47.00% | Ken Paxton 46.00% |
| SoCal Strategies (R) partisan·R | 2026-09-13 | 649 LV | James Talarico 50.00% | Ken Paxton 45.00% | |
| ReconMR/Siena University | 2026-09-11 | 614 LV | ±4.30 | James Talarico 49.00% | Ken Paxton 43.00% |
| Mason-Dixon | 2026-09-10 | 625 LV | ±4.00 | James Talarico 46.00% | Ken Paxton 43.00% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) ±1.9 | 2026-09-09 | 1200 LV | ±2.80 | James Talarico 47.00% | Ken Paxton 46.00% |
| Univision/YouGov | 2026-09-04 | 1000 RV | ±3.60 | James Talarico 48.00% | Ken Paxton 43.00% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) ±1.9 R-sponsored | 2026-09-01 | 895 LV | ±3.30 | James Talarico 48.00% | Ken Paxton 44.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 Texas Senate race?
James Talarico leads Ken Paxton 47.8% to 44.5% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+3.3 margin based on 12 polls from the last 30 days.
Is the 2026 Texas Senate race competitive?
Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates it Lean D, the current rating band, and the race is competitive. Note: our polling average (Lean D) diverges from the expert consensus (Tilt R) — that gap makes this a race to watch.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 Texas Senate race say?
The most recent public poll, from Big Data (completed September 26, 2026), found James Talarico (D) at 47% and Ken Paxton (R) at 45%.
When is the 2026 Texas Senate race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 30 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
Four-term incumbent Incumbent John Cornyn lost the 2026 Republican primary runoff to Ken Paxton; no incumbent is on the November ballot.
Independent Expenditures Updated 3 hours ago
Top Spenders
- TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY GOP-aligned $5,301,833
- LONE STAR RISING PAC GOP-aligned $4,475,994
- LONE STAR LIBERTY PAC Dem-aligned $3,547,094
- FIGHTING FOR TEXAS Dem-aligned $700,000
- CLEARPATH ACTION FUND, INC. GOP-aligned $514,600
- NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE GOP-aligned $505,422
- FORWARD TEXAS Dem-aligned $505,024
- ASSOCIATION OF TEXAS CONSERVATIVES GOP-aligned $288,958
- TEXAS ORGANIZING PROJECT POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE Dem-aligned $198,607
- TEXAS FARM BUREAU AGFUND GOP-aligned $91,900
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →