All 2026 races in Texas (Governor, Senate and House) →
General Election
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico ✓ | Democratic | 5,453,742 | 55.0% | |
| Ken Paxton | Republican | 4,253,630 | 42.9% | |
| Ted Brown | Libertarian | 190,477 | 1.9% | |
| Write-in | Nonpartisan | 4,467 | 0.0% | |
| Avery Ayers | Write-In | 2,046 | 0.0% | |
| Jade Simmons | Write-In | 1,746 | 0.0% | |
| Bradford "Brad" Hall | Write-In | 1,265 | 0.0% | |
| Zul Mohamed | Write-In | 186 | 0.0% | |
| Brad Hall | Nonpartisan | 15 | 0.0% |
As of 11:02 PM ET, Thu Nov 12.
Primary
Democratic Primary
Held March 3, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico ✓ | 1,212,945 | 53.2% | |
| Jasmine Crockett | 1,068,822 | 46.8% |
Republican Runoff
Held May 26, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Paxton ✓ | 890,449 | 63.8% | |
| John Cornyn | 504,329 | 36.2% |
Full calendar and every race: Texas primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
The right edge is that same average of the last three polls. This is an average, not a forecast.
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Candidates
Ted Brown Nominee
LibertarianCertified write-ins: Avery Ayers, Bradford Hall, Zul Mohamed, Jade Simmons.
General Election Polling Average
LV = likely voters · RV = registered voters · ± = margin of error · R-sponsored / D-sponsored / I-sponsored = paid for by a Republican, Democratic, or Independent group · "missed 2024 by X pts" = that firm's average miss in 2024
Average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls. Fewer than three uses the polls that exist. The rating uses that average when the newest poll ended in the last 30 days. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Times/Siena University missed 2024 by 3.1 pts In average | 2026-11-01 this poll | 1215 LV | ±3.40 | James Talarico 50.00% | Ken Paxton 43.00% |
| Atlas Intel missed 2024 by 1.4 pts In average | 2026-11-01 this poll | 1678 LV | ±2.80 | James Talarico 52.00% | Ken Paxton 46.00% |
| Trafalgar Group R-sponsored missed 2024 by 1.8 pts In average | 2026-11-01 this poll | 1089 LV | ±2.90 | James Talarico 48.00% | Ken Paxton 48.00% |
| AtlasIntel missed 2024 by 1.4 pts Not in average | 2026-11-01 this poll | 1678 A | ±2.00 | James Talarico 51.00% | Ken Paxton 45.00% |
| YouGov Not in average | 2026-10-29 this poll | 2141 LV | ±2.90 | James Talarico 51.00% | Ken Paxton 47.00% |
| ActiVote Not in average | 2026-10-28 this poll | 400 LV | ±4.90 | James Talarico 52.10% | Ken Paxton 47.90% |
| Quantus Insights R-sponsored Not in average | 2026-10-28 this poll | 1221 LV | ±6.40 | James Talarico 48.40% | Ken Paxton 49.40% |
| A2 Insights Not in average | 2026-10-27 this poll | 631 LV | ±4.90 | James Talarico 50.00% | Ken Paxton 47.00% |
| CNN/SSRS Not in average | 2026-10-27 this poll | 923 LV | ±4.20 | James Talarico 49.00% | Ken Paxton 43.00% |
| Data for Progress (D) D-sponsored missed 2024 by 4.1 pts Not in average | 2026-10-26 this poll | 712 LV | ±4.00 | James Talarico 49.00% | Ken Paxton 45.00% |
| 254 Labs/YouGov Blue Not in average | 2026-10-26 this poll | 1000 LV | ±4.60 | James Talarico 51.00% | Ken Paxton 43.00% |
| TSU/YouGov Not in average | 2026-10-25 this poll | 2000 LV | ±2.20 | James Talarico 49.00% | Ken Paxton 47.00% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) missed 2024 by 2.1 pts Not in average | 2026-10-21 this poll | 965 LV | ±3.00 | James Talarico 45.00% | Ken Paxton 45.00% |
| All candidates (full ballot): James Talarico (D) 45% · Ken Paxton (R) 45% · Ted Brown (L) 5% · Undecided 5% | |||||
| ActiVote Not in average | 2026-10-21 this poll | 400 LV | ±4.90 | James Talarico 51.00% | Ken Paxton 49.00% |
| Univision/YouGov Not in average | 2026-10-21 this poll | 1000 RV | ±3.70 | James Talarico 50.00% | Ken Paxton 45.00% |
| Verasight Not in average | 2026-10-20 this poll | 969 LV | ±3.90 | James Talarico 48.00% | Ken Paxton 45.00% |
| Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Co. Research (R) missed 2024 by 2.3 pts Not in average | 2026-10-19 this poll | 1398 LV | ±2.50 | James Talarico 49.00% | Ken Paxton 49.00% |
| Emerson missed 2024 by 2.7 pts Not in average | 2026-10-19 this poll | 1000 LV | ±3.10 | James Talarico 48.00% | Ken Paxton 46.00% |
| Slingshot Strategies D-sponsored Not in average | 2026-10-18 this poll | 969 LV | ±3.90 | James Talarico 51.00% | Ken Paxton 47.00% |
| All candidates (full ballot): James Talarico (D) 51% · Ken Paxton (R) 47% · Ted Brown (L) 2% | |||||
| CBS News/YouGov Not in average | 2026-10-16 this poll | 1492 LV | ±3.50 | James Talarico 51.00% | Ken Paxton 49.00% |
| Heritage Action/Cor Strategies Not in average | 2026-10-15 this poll | 1409 LV | ±2.60 | James Talarico 44.00% | Ken Paxton 40.00% |
| Pollfinity Research Not in average | 2026-10-15 this poll | 278 RV | ±6.50 | James Talarico 48.00% | Ken Paxton 43.00% |
| All candidates (full ballot): James Talarico (D) 48% · Ken Paxton (R) 43% · Ted Brown (L) 2% · Undecided 5% | |||||
| ActiVote Not in average | 2026-10-14 this poll | 400 LV | ±4.90 | James Talarico 51.90% | Ken Paxton 48.10% |
| InsiderAdvantage missed 2024 by 1.9 pts Not in average | 2026-10-14 this poll | 1200 LV | ±2.83 | James Talarico 48.00% | Ken Paxton 49.00% |
| All candidates (full ballot): Ken Paxton (R) 49% · James Talarico (D) 48% · Ted Brown (L) 2% · Undecided 1% | |||||
| University of Houston Not in average | 2026-10-14 this poll | 2000 LV | ±2.20 | James Talarico 48.00% | Ken Paxton 46.00% |
| All candidates (full ballot): James Talarico (D) 48% · Ken Paxton (R) 46% · Ted Brown (L) 3% · Undecided 3% | |||||
| Marist Poll Not in average | 2026-10-14 this poll | LV | James Talarico 51.00% | Ken Paxton 49.00% | |
Questions About This Race
Who won the 2026 Texas Senate race?
James Talarico (D) won the 2026 Texas Senate race — the seat was called on November 12, 2026.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 Texas Senate race say?
The most recent poll in our average, from New York Times/Siena University (completed November 1, 2026), found James Talarico (D) at 50% and Ken Paxton (R) at 43%.
When is the 2026 Texas Senate race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls, or fewer when fewer exist. One poll sets the rating when it ended in the last 30 days. We do not exclude pollsters. The table lists recent polls, including ones older than those three. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
Incumbent John Cornyn lost the 2026 Republican primary runoff to Ken Paxton; no incumbent is on the November ballot.
Independent Expenditures Updated 14 hours ago
Top Spenders
- TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY Primary $5,301,833
- LONE STAR RISING PAC Primary $4,475,994
- LONE STAR LIBERTY PAC Primary $3,547,094
- FIGHTING FOR TEXAS Primary $700,000
- CLEARPATH ACTION FUND, INC. Primary $514,600
- FORWARD TEXAS Primary $505,024
- NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE GOP-aligned Primary $504,222
- ASSOCIATION OF TEXAS CONSERVATIVES Primary $288,958
- TEXAS ORGANIZING PROJECT POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE Dem-aligned Primary $198,607
- TEXAS FARM BUREAU AGFUND Primary $91,900
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
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