Today's data offers little fresh national polling but substantial archival additions to the Pennsylvania and Texas governor's races, alongside news developments in Maine, Michigan, Colorado and Arizona. The two generic-ballot surveys released today — from RMG Research and Echelon Insights — both show Democrats ahead, though by different margins depending on likely- versus registered-voter samples. Elsewhere, Politico reports Democrats hold a financial edge in most competitive Senate races even as primary turbulence persists in Maine and Michigan.
Generic Ballot: Two More Surveys, Same LV-RV Pattern
The generic congressional ballot continues to show a modest Democratic edge nationally. RMG Research, surveying registered voters July 14, found Democrats ahead 47 to 45. Echelon Insights, surveying likely voters a day earlier, found a wider 50-44 Democratic lead — a reminder that sample composition, not just underlying opinion, continues to drive variation across pollsters this cycle.
Maine Senate: Cash Flows to Democrats Despite Primary Chaos
Politico's report on Senate campaign finance found Democrats holding a significant cash advantage in most competitive Senate races, but flagged Maine and Michigan as complications to that overall financial edge. In Maine, the fallout from Graham Platner's withdrawal continues to divide his former supporters, with some directing anger at national Democratic operatives and others at Platner himself, according to reporting cited in the same story. The Maine Senate race remains unsettled heading into the deadline for the Democratic field to consolidate.
Michigan Senate: Peters Endorses Stevens to Succeed Him
Senator Gary Peters, a Michigan Democrat not seeking re-election, endorsed Democrat Haley Stevens in the primary race to succeed him, becoming the 28th retiring member of Congress this cycle to back a successor. The endorsement signals institutional Democratic support for Stevens heading into the primary, though the general election field and broader dynamics remain to be determined.
House Races: Progressive Challenge in Arizona, Colorado Toss-up
In Arizona, community organizer Kai Newkirk is drawing attention as a competitive primary challenger to Representative Greg Stanton, a Democrat, in a Phoenix-area seat previously considered safely Democratic. In Colorado, Republican incumbent Gabe Evans faces Democrat Manny Rutinel in the 8th Congressional District's general election; major forecasters rate the race a toss-up in a district that has swung between parties in recent cycles.
Pennsylvania and Texas Governor: Archive Expansion
PollingSource added a series of archival surveys to its Pennsylvania and Texas governor pages today, none reflecting new fieldwork. In Pennsylvania, polls dating back to September 2025 — including surveys from Quinnipiac, Franklin & Marshall, Susquehanna and PennLive — consistently show Democratic incumbent Josh Shapiro leading Republican Stacy Garrity by wide margins, consistent with the Pennsylvania governor race's Safe D rating. In Texas, archival polling from January through June shows Republican Greg Abbott leading Democrat Bonnie Hinojosa by six to nine points across surveys from the University of Texas, University of Houston, Emerson and others, consistent with the Likely R rating on the Texas governor's race.
Watch tomorrow for further movement in the Maine Democratic field as candidates position ahead of the Portland debate, and any signal on the Republican special-primary endorsement dynamics in South Carolina.
Polls
| National Generic RMG Research** (n=1000 RV) | Democrats 47% · Republicans 45% |
| National Generic Echelon Insights** (n=1004 LV) | Democrats 50% · Republicans 44% |
| MN Governor Emerson (n=1400 RV) | Ocasio-Cortez 41% · Vance 44% |
| PA Governor Quinnipiac (n=895 RV) | Shapiro 53% · Garrity 40% |
| PA Governor PennLive (n=644 LV) | Shapiro 54% · Garrity 29% |
| PA Governor Franklin & Marshall (n=546 RV) | Shapiro 50% · Garrity 28% |
| PA Governor PennLive (n=684 LV) | Shapiro 53% · Garrity 29% |
| PA Governor Susquehanna (n=700 LV) | Shapiro 58% · Garrity 36% |
Follow the Money
Ohio and New Jersey Senate: Contrasting Fundraising Profiles
Sherrod Brown, the Democrat running in the Ohio Senate race, reported $25.98 million in total receipts, the largest haul in this batch of filings, with $17.03 million cash on hand after $8.95 million in disbursements. In the New Jersey Senate race, Democrat Cory Booker raised $17.63 million but posted a higher cash balance than Brown, at $22.6 million, after spending $6.23 million. The gap between receipts and cash-on-hand in both filings reflects differing burn rates heading into the next reporting period.
House Fundraising: Vindman, Crane and Scalise Report Large Sums
In Virginia, Democrat Yevgeny Vindman's campaign in the Virginia House race reported $9.67 million in receipts and $5.27 million cash on hand. In Arizona, Republican Eli Crane raised $9.48 million for the Arizona House race, but disbursements of $6.96 million left just $2.84 million on hand. Louisiana Republican Steve Scalise reported similar totals in the Louisiana House race: $9.32 million raised against $7.78 million spent, leaving $5.68 million in the bank. Colorado Democrat Eileen Laubacher's filing in the Colorado House race showed the highest disbursement-to-receipt ratio among House candidates in this set, spending $6.62 million of the $9.95 million she raised.
Senate Filings: Oklahoma, Minnesota and Michigan
Republican Kevin Hern reported $9.3 million in receipts for the Oklahoma Senate race, with comparatively low disbursements of $2.49 million, leaving $6.81 million on hand. Minnesota Democrat Angie Craig raised $9.29 million for the Minnesota Senate race, reporting $4.9 million in cash after $4.4 million in spending. In Michigan, Democrat Haley Stevens filed for the Michigan Senate race with $8.87 million raised, $5.48 million spent, and $3.39 million remaining. New Hampshire Democrat Chris Pappas rounded out the notable filings in the New Hampshire Senate race, with $9.86 million in receipts and $4.22 million cash on hand after disbursing $6.04 million.
Headlines
- Rising Momentum for Another Progressive Champion (RealClearPolitics)
Community organizer Kai Newkirk is emerging as a competitive challenger to incumbent Rep. Greg Stanton in Arizona's P... - As Maine Goes, So Goes the Senate? Not Necessarily (RealClearPolitics)
Graham Platner has withdrawn from Maine's Senate race, leaving his supporters divided in their anger between the cand... - Incumbent Gabe Evans (R) and Manny Rutinel (D) are running in the general election for Colorado's 8th Congressional District on November 3, 2026 (Ballotpedia News)
Republican incumbent Gabe Evans is facing Democrat Manny Rutinel in Colorado's 8th Congressional District general ele...
What to Watch
Arizona Primary Set for July 21
Arizona holds primary elections for governor and House seats on July 21. The Arizona governor's race carries a Likely D rating heading into the contest, making the primary outcome a key signal for how competitive the general election may become.
Governor's Races to Watch
Beyond Arizona, several 2026 governor's races remain in more contested territory. The Florida governor's race and the Nebraska governor's race are both rated Toss-up, the tightest classification on the board. Kansas is rated Lean R, while Iowa and North Carolina sit at Lean D — all four worth monitoring for movement as polling updates arrive. New Hampshire, by contrast, is rated Likely R, and Michigan, Minnesota, and Georgia are each rated Likely D, giving readers a broad spread of competitiveness across the map heading into the coming weeks.
New Polls (3)
Added to the Archive (15)
Older polls newly added to the PollingSource database — fieldwork predates the last two weeks. Full results on each race page.
Rating Changes
PollingSource Poll Average: Rhode Island Governor N/A → Safe D
PollingSource Poll Average: Alaska House N/A → Safe R
PollingSource Poll Average: Florida House CD-25 N/A → Safe D
PollingSource Poll Average: Florida House CD-23 N/A → Lean D
PollingSource Poll Average: Montana House CD-01 N/A → Lean R
PollingSource Poll Average: Nebraska House CD-01 N/A → Likely R
PollingSource Poll Average: North Carolina House CD-01 N/A → Toss-up
PollingSource Poll Average: Florida Senate N/A → Lean R
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