Two new Iowa polls released today land on opposite sides of the Senate race, underscoring how sensitive that contest is to pollster and sample effects, while a South Carolina survey confirms a wide Republican advantage and Michigan's Arab American electorate emerges as a fresh point of vulnerability for Republicans in the state's Senate race.
Iowa: Senate Polls Diverge Sharply, Governor's Race Stays Close
Two surveys completed August 29 paint different pictures of the Iowa Senate race. Wedgewood Polls has Republican Ashley Hinson leading Democrat Josh Turek 50-48, while Abacus Data, a Republican-aligned pollster, shows Turek ahead 54-45 — a 13-point swing between the two results despite identical sample sizes of 600 and 2,500 respectively. PollingSource's own average rates the race a Toss-up, a designation that fits the current spread in the data more than either individual poll. In the Iowa governor's race, the same Wedgewood survey shows Democrat Rob Sand leading Republican Zach Lahn 51-46, consistent with PollingSource's Lean D rating.
South Carolina Senate: Graham Holds Wide Lead
An Abacus Data poll of 2,500 likely voters completed August 29 shows Republican Darline Graham leading Democrat Annie Andrews 55-42 in the South Carolina Senate race, consistent with PollingSource's Likely R rating. The margin is wider than recent South Carolina governor polling has shown in the state's other statewide contest, suggesting the two races may not be moving in lockstep.
Michigan Senate: Arab American Voters Signal Movement Away From Rogers
Reporting today describes Michigan's Arab American community, which backed Donald Trump in 2024, shifting away from Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers in the Michigan Senate race. The dynamic points to a demographic vulnerability for Rogers in a state PollingSource rates Lean D, though no new polling was released alongside the reporting to quantify the shift.
New Mexico Governor: Haaland Leads Hull
A Research & Polling Inc. survey of 516 likely voters completed August 28 shows Democrat Deb Haaland leading Republican Gregg Hull 49-43 in the New Mexico governor's race, consistent with PollingSource's Safe D rating despite the single-digit margin in this poll.
Massachusetts Primaries: Markey and Minogue Lead Their Fields
An Emerson College poll of the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary, completed August 29, shows incumbent Ed Markey at 65 percent support. Separately, a University of New Hampshire poll of the Massachusetts Republican gubernatorial primary, completed August 24, shows Michael Minogue at 55 percent. Both figures reflect primary-field standing only and do not represent general-election matchups.
Watch tomorrow for whether additional Iowa polling clarifies the Senate race's true standing given today's conflicting results, and for any further reporting on Michigan's shifting Arab American vote heading into the fall campaign.
Polls
| IA Governor Wedgewood Polls (n=600 LV) | Rob Sand 51% · Zach Lahn 46% |
| NM Governor Research & Polling Inc. (n=516 LV) | Deb Haaland 49% · Gregg Hull 43% |
| IA Senate Wedgewood Polls (n=600 LV) | Josh Turek 48% · Ashley Hinson 50% |
Follow the Money
Minnesota House Fundraising: Emmer and Omar Lead Crowded Field
Financial disclosures across Minnesota's House delegation show Tom Emmer, a Republican, as the fundraising leader statewide, pulling in $9.79 million in total receipts with $4.5 million still on hand after $6.98 million in spending. In the Minnesota 6th District race, rated Likely R, Emmer's cash advantage dwarfs that of any other candidate in the dataset.
Democrat-aligned candidate Ilhan Omar ranks second statewide with $5.83 million raised, though heavier spending of $4.8 million left her with $1.35 million on hand, roughly a third of Emmer's reserve. Other Republicans in the data, including Brad Finstad, Pete Stauber and Michelle Fischbach, each raised between $1.3 million and $2 million, with disbursement rates well below their receipts, leaving each with over $900,000 banked.
Lower-tier fundraisers such as John Nagel, a Republican, and Democrat Betty McCollum show tighter margins — McCollum spent more than she raised, ending with just $498,697 on hand. The spread illustrates uneven financial positioning heading into the fall across Minnesota's multiple House contests.
Headlines
- Markey trounces Moulton in Massachusetts Senate primary poll (The Hill)
Incumbent Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) holds a commanding lead over Rep. Seth Moulton in the Massachusetts Democratic Sen... - Greene condemns Loomer’s rhetoric: ‘This is Trump’s new MAGA and Republican Party’ (The Hill)
Former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene condemned right-wing influencer Laura Loomer's inflammatory social media posts tar... - Dems Try To Divorce Themselves From Toxic Hasan Piker (RealClearPolitics)
Democratic Congressman Ro Khanna from California's 17th district is distancing himself from content creator Hasan Pik...
What to Watch
🗳 Voting this week- Massachusetts primary — Tuesday, September 1 (TOMORROW)
What to Watch
The next several weeks are quiet on the primary calendar, with Massachusetts the only state scheduled to vote — its Senate, House, and gubernatorial primaries fall on September 1, 2026. That date is still well out, but candidate filing and fundraising totals ahead of it are worth tracking as they come in.
In the meantime, attention stays on the governor's races carrying Toss-up ratings: Florida, Georgia, Kansas, Nevada, and Ohio. These five are the closest contests on the board and the ones most likely to shift with new polling.
A second tier — Arizona, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Oregon — currently leans toward Democratic candidates, ranging from Lean D to Likely D. Movement in any of those would signal a broader shift in the national environment rather than a single-state story, so any tightening there is worth watching alongside the toss-ups.
New Polls (3)
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