Primary
Democratic Primary
Held August 4, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul El-Sayed ✓ | 743,577 | 50.5% | |
| Haley Stevens | 728,041 | 49.5% |
Full calendar and every race: Michigan primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
PollingSource average — trailing average of all polls from the last 30 days.
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General Election Polling Average
Average reflects all polls from the last 30 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Data Poll (R) R-sponsored | 2026-09-24 | 678 LV | ±4.00 | Abdul El-Sayed 47.00% | Mike Rogers 42.00% |
| co/efficient (R) partisan·R | 2026-09-23 | 843 LV | ±3.36 | Abdul El-Sayed 45.00% | Mike Rogers 45.00% |
| New York Times/Siena University ±3.1 | 2026-09-22 | 600 LV | ±4.90 | Abdul El-Sayed 49.00% | Mike Rogers 44.00% |
| NY Times/Siena | 2026-09-22 | 605 LV | ±4.90 | El-Sayed 49.00% | Rogers 44.00% |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2026-09-22 | 1099 LV | ±3.00 | El-Sayed 47.00% | Rogers 44.00% |
| Suffolk University | 2026-09-20 | 500 LV | ±4.40 | El-Sayed 47.00% | Rogers 40.00% |
| Torchlight Strategies (R) partisan·R R-sponsored | 2026-09-19 | 643 LV | ±4.70 | Abdul El-Sayed 43.00% | Mike Rogers 44.00% |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2026-09-17 | 1200 LV | ±2.80 | El-Sayed 47.00% | Rogers 45.00% |
| The Washington Post/SSPG | 2026-09-14 | 803 LV | ±3.90 | Abdul El-Sayed 48.00% | Mike Rogers 45.00% |
| Emerson ±2.7 | 2026-09-14 | 1000 LV | ±3.00 | Abdul El-Sayed 48.00% | Mike Rogers 46.00% |
| Trafalgar Group (R) partisan·R ±1.8 | 2026-09-09 | 1079 LV | ±2.90 | Abdul El-Sayed 46.00% | Mike Rogers 45.00% |
| CNN | 2026-09-06 | 843 LV | ±4.10 | El-Sayed 47.00% | Rogers 44.00% |
| Detroit News/Glengariff | 2026-09-03 | 600 LV | ±4.00 | El-Sayed 44.00% | Rogers 46.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 Michigan Senate race?
Abdul El-Sayed leads Mike Rogers 46.5% to 44.2% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+2.3 margin based on 12 polls from the last 30 days.
Is the 2026 Michigan Senate race competitive?
Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates this race a Toss-up, the most competitive category.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 Michigan Senate race say?
The most recent public poll, from Big Data Poll (R) (completed September 24, 2026), found Abdul El-Sayed (D) at 47% and Mike Rogers (R) at 42%.
When is the 2026 Michigan Senate race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 30 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
Peters retiring, open seat in swing state
Independent Expenditures Updated 3 hours ago
Top Spenders
- UNITED DEMOCRACY PROJECT ('UDP') GOP-aligned $19,754,581
- NO GOING BACK PAC INC. GOP-aligned $12,508,438
- SLF PAC GOP-aligned $4,678,311
- AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION GOP-aligned $2,461,082
- AMERICA PAC GOP-aligned $1,844,355
- FIGHTING FOR MICHIGAN PAC Dem-aligned $1,221,013
- THE SENTINEL ACTION FUND GOP-aligned $1,146,364
- GLCF, INC. GOP-aligned $1,102,892
- WINSENATE Dem-aligned $533,730
- NATIONAL NURSES UNITED FOR PATIENT PROTECTION Dem-aligned $489,665
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →