Primary
Democratic Primary
Held August 4, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul El-Sayed ✓ | 743,577 | 48.5% | |
| Haley Stevens | 728,041 | 47.5% | |
| Mallory McMorrow | 61,411 | 4.0% |
Full calendar and every race: Michigan primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
PollingSource average — trailing average of all polls from the last 30 days.
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General Election Polling Average
Average reflects all polls from the last 30 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOX News | 2026-08-10 | 1006 RV | ±3.00 | El-Sayed 47.00% | Rogers 51.00% |
| Fox News | 2026-08-10 | RV | Abdul El-Sayed 47.00% | Mike Rogers 51.00% | |
| Beacon | 2026-08-10 | Abdul El-Sayed 47.00% | Mike Rogers 51.00% | ||
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) ±2.3 | 2026-08-10 | 1006 RV | ±3.00 | Abdul El-Sayed 47.00% | Mike Rogers 51.00% |
| EPIC-MRA | 2026-07-31 | 600 LV | ±4.00 | Abdul El-Sayed 43.00% | Mike Rogers 46.00% |
| SoCal Strategies | 2026-07-30 | 640 LV | ±4.70 | El-Sayed 41.00% | Rogers 42.00% |
| MIRS/Mitchell Research | 2026-07-29 | 672 LV | ±3.77 | El-Sayed 45.00% | Rogers 45.00% |
| Glengariff Group | 2026-07-24 | 600 LV | ±4.00 | Abdul El-Sayed 39.00% | Mike Rogers 49.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 Michigan Senate race?
Mike Rogers leads Abdul El-Sayed 48.3% to 44.5% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+3.8 margin based on 8 polls from the last 30 days.
Is the 2026 Michigan Senate race competitive?
Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates it Lean R: Republicans are favored, but the race is competitive.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 Michigan Senate race say?
The most recent public poll, from FOX News (completed August 10, 2026), found El-Sayed (D) at 47% and Rogers (R) at 51%.
When is the 2026 Michigan Senate race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 30 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
Peters retiring, open seat in swing state
Independent Expenditures Updated 1 hour ago
Top Spenders
- UNITED DEMOCRACY PROJECT ('UDP') GOP-aligned $20,139,459
- FIGHTING FOR MICHIGAN PAC Dem-aligned $1,941,244
- COMMON DEFENSE ACTION FUND Dem-aligned $489,665
- NATIONAL NURSES UNITED FOR PATIENT PROTECTION Dem-aligned $489,665
- AMERICAN PRIORITIES (AP) Dem-aligned $372,026
- WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC Dem-aligned $161,548
- GLCF, INC. GOP-aligned $158,226
- A STRONGER MICHIGAN GOP-aligned $150,000
- MOVEON.ORG POLITICAL ACTION Dem-aligned $132,241
- PAF Dem-aligned $65,000
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →