All 2026 races in Michigan (Governor, Senate and House) →
General Election
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul El-Sayed ✓ | Democratic | 2,507,457 | 52.5% | |
| Mike Rogers | Republican | 2,173,033 | 45.5% | |
| Lydia Christensen | Libertarian | 49,513 | 1.0% | |
| Tim Long | U.S. Taxpayers | 26,417 | 0.6% | |
| Douglas P. Marsh | Green | 12,506 | 0.3% | |
| Walter P. Kristy | Natural Law | 7,227 | 0.2% | |
| Write-in | Nonpartisan | 3,612 | 0.1% | |
| George Earnest Huffman | Write-In | 2 | 0.0% | |
| Craig Henley Johnson II | Write-In | — | — | |
| Craig HenleyJohnson | Nonpartisan | — | — | |
| Daniel Varney Tamba Pawa | Write-In | — | — | |
| Robert Trevor-Blair Davis | Write-In | — | — |
As of 11:01 PM ET, Thu Nov 12.
Primary
Democratic Primary
Held August 4, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul El-Sayed ✓ | 743,577 | 50.5% | |
| Haley Stevens | 728,041 | 49.5% |
Republican Primary
Held August 4, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Rogers ✓ | — | — |
Full calendar and every race: Michigan primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
The right edge is that same average of the last three polls. This is an average, not a forecast.
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Candidates
Certified write-ins: Robert Davis, George Huffman III, Craig H. Johnson II, Daniel Pawa.
General Election Polling Average
LV = likely voters · RV = registered voters · ± = margin of error · R-sponsored / D-sponsored / I-sponsored = paid for by a Republican, Democratic, or Independent group · "missed 2024 by X pts" = that firm's average miss in 2024
Average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls. Fewer than three uses the polls that exist. The rating uses that average when the newest poll ended in the last 30 days. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group R-sponsored missed 2024 by 1.8 pts In average | 2026-11-01 this poll | 1087 LV | ±2.90 | Abdul El-Sayed 47.00% | Mike Rogers 46.00% |
| New York Times/Siena University missed 2024 by 3.1 pts In average | 2026-11-01 this poll | 1011 LV | ±3.80 | Abdul El-Sayed 53.00% | Mike Rogers 42.00% |
| Research Co. In average | 2026-11-01 this poll | 450 LV | ±4.60 | Abdul El-Sayed 48.00% | Mike Rogers 46.00% |
| YouGov Not in average | 2026-10-29 this poll | 2093 LV | ±3.00 | Abdul El-Sayed 51.00% | Mike Rogers 47.00% |
| Rasmussen Reports missed 2024 by 2.1 pts Not in average | 2026-10-29 this poll | 745 LV | ±3.00 | Abdul El-Sayed 49.00% | Mike Rogers 44.00% |
| Upswing Research (D) D-sponsored Not in average | 2026-10-28 this poll | 505 LV | ±4.40 | Abdul El-Sayed 50.00% | Mike Rogers 45.00% |
| CNN/SSRS Not in average | 2026-10-27 this poll | 768 LV | ±4.70 | Abdul El-Sayed 49.00% | Mike Rogers 42.00% |
| CBS News/Mitchell Not in average | 2026-10-27 this poll | 636 LV | ±3.90 | Abdul El-Sayed 51.00% | Mike Rogers 44.00% |
| Data for Progress D-sponsored missed 2024 by 4.1 pts Not in average | 2026-10-25 this poll | 622 LV | ±4.00 | Abdul El-Sayed 50.00% | Mike Rogers 46.00% |
| RedBox Research Not in average | 2026-10-23 this poll | 2696 LV | ±3.50 | Abdul El-Sayed 48.90% | Mike Rogers 44.00% |
| Michigan State University Department of Political Science/Verasight Not in average | 2026-10-23 this poll | 1383 LV | ±2.90 | Abdul El-Sayed 50.50% | Mike Rogers 43.10% |
| Glengariff Group, Inc. Not in average | 2026-10-22 this poll | 600 LV | ±4.00 | Abdul El-Sayed 51.40% | Mike Rogers 45.10% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) missed 2024 by 1.9 pts Not in average | 2026-10-22 this poll | 1200 LV | ±2.83 | Abdul El-Sayed 47.00% | Mike Rogers 46.00% |
| Michigan State/YouGov Not in average | 2026-10-19 this poll | 863 LV | ±4.40 | Abdul El-Sayed 48.00% | Mike Rogers 46.00% |
| Marist missed 2024 by 4.3 pts Not in average | 2026-10-18 this poll | LV | ±4.30 | Abdul El-Sayed 50.00% | Mike Rogers 48.00% |
| Rasmussen Reports missed 2024 by 2.1 pts Not in average | 2026-10-14 this poll | 798 LV | ±3.00 | Abdul El-Sayed 46.00% | Mike Rogers 44.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who won the 2026 Michigan Senate race?
Abdul El-Sayed (D) won the 2026 Michigan Senate race — the seat was called on November 12, 2026.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 Michigan Senate race say?
The most recent poll in our average, from Trafalgar Group (completed November 1, 2026), found Abdul El-Sayed (D) at 47% and Mike Rogers (R) at 46%.
When is the 2026 Michigan Senate race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls, or fewer when fewer exist. One poll sets the rating when it ended in the last 30 days. We do not exclude pollsters. The table lists recent polls, including ones older than those three. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
Peters retiring, open seat in swing state
Independent Expenditures Updated 12 hours ago
Top Spenders
- SLF PAC GOP-aligned $38,195,337
- NO GOING BACK PAC INC. GOP-aligned $25,527,873
- GLCF, INC. GOP-aligned $18,361,838
- UNITED DEMOCRACY PROJECT ('UDP') Primary $17,917,468
- WINSENATE Dem-aligned $11,799,435
- TFM GOP-aligned $9,138,080
- AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION GOP-aligned $5,253,908
- LCV VICTORY FUND Dem-aligned $3,870,914
- AMERICA PAC GOP-aligned $1,318,098
- EMPOWERING BLACK AMERICANS PAC GOP-aligned $1,288,000
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
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