South Dakota is the only state holding elections Tuesday, with its statewide primaries setting the fall ballot for a Senate seat and the state's House delegation. Turnout and margins in the Republican contests will be watched most closely, given the state's lean.
South Dakota Senate: Rounds Faces the Field
Mike Rounds, the Republican candidate, enters Tuesday with a substantial financial edge, having raised just over $3.17 million with $2.74 million still on hand. On the Democratic side, Julian Beaudion has raised roughly $228,000 with just over $3,000 in cash remaining, while independent Brian Bengs has brought in about $782,000 with roughly $51,000 on hand. The South Dakota Senate race is rated Solid R by Inside Elections and Cook Political Report, and Safe R by Sabato's Crystal Ball. No public polling has been reported for the contest.
South Dakota House: A Crowded Republican Field
The state's at-large House race features a competitive Republican fundraising picture. Representative Dusty Johnson leads with $1.63 million raised but reports zero cash on hand, while Marty Jackley has raised $1.44 million and retains just over $1.06 million in his account. Republican Casey Crabtree trails with roughly $255,000 raised and about $18,700 on hand. On the Democratic side, Nicole Gronli has raised approximately $262,000 with nearly $111,000 remaining, while Billy Mawhiney has raised about $31,000 with no cash on hand reported. The disparity between Johnson's fundraising total and his depleted cash reserves, against Jackley's more balanced ledger, is worth watching as results come in Tuesday.
No other states are scheduled to hold elections Tuesday. South Dakota's slate covers both its Senate seat and its single House district, with primary outcomes there determining the fall matchups in a state where statewide contests have historically favored Republican nominees.
Polls
| ID House SurveyUSA (n=480 LV) | Kaylee Peterson 35% · Russ Fulcher 45% |
Follow the Money
Michigan Senate: A Four-Way Fundraising Scramble
The Michigan Senate race produced the most crowded set of competitive filings in this batch. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed led all Michigan candidates in receipts with $14.5 million raised, but spent aggressively — $11.98 million — leaving him with just $2.55 million in the bank. Fellow Democrat Haley Stevens raised $11.88 million and carried $2.79 million in cash on hand after $9.09 million in disbursements, while Democrat Mallory McMorrow reported $11.39 million raised, $9.52 million spent, and $1.87 million remaining. On the Republican side, Mike Rogers brought in $10.9 million and holds $4.47 million in cash after $6.68 million in spending, giving him the largest cash cushion of the four.
The pattern across the Michigan filings is high burn rates relative to receipts — all four candidates spent more than three-quarters of what they raised this period. That leaves comparatively thin reserves heading into the next reporting cycle, particularly for El-Sayed and McMorrow, whose cash on hand trails their overall receipts by the widest margins in the group.
Ohio Senate: Brown Reports Largest Haul
In the Ohio Senate race, Democrat Sherrod Brown filed the largest fundraising report of the period, with $38.57 million in total receipts. Brown's campaign has spent $22.34 million, leaving $16.23 million in cash on hand — the highest reserve figure among all candidates in this set of filings by a wide margin.
House Filings: Vindman and McClain Delaney
Two House Democrats filed notable reports. In the Virginia 7th District race, Eugene Vindman raised $12.36 million and retained $6.57 million after $5.92 million in spending, giving him one of the stronger cash positions in this round of filings. By contrast, in the Maryland 6th District race, April McClain Delaney raised a nearly identical $12.31 million but has just $307,611 left after disbursements of $12.01 million — among the largest gaps between receipts and remaining cash in the entire filing set.
Senate Filings: Craig, Whatley, Ricketts
Three additional Senate campaigns filed reports of note. Democrat Angie Craig, running in the Minnesota Senate race, raised $11.93 million and holds $5.04 million in cash after $6.9 million spent. In the North Carolina Senate race, Republican Michael Whatley reported $11.27 million raised against $7.81 million in disbursements, leaving $3.46 million on hand. In the Nebraska Senate race, Republican Pete Ricketts raised $11.23 million but spent only $4.81 million, leaving him with $6.91 million in cash — the second-largest reserve in this filing batch after Brown's.
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What to Watch
🗳 Voting this week- South Dakota runoff — Tuesday, July 28 (TOMORROW)
South Dakota Runoff Set for July 28
South Dakota's primary runoff is scheduled for July 28, 2026. The contest will resolve outstanding primary results from earlier this cycle, with the outcome shaping the general-election field in the state.
Governor's Races to Watch
A dense slate of gubernatorial contests remains competitive heading into the coming weeks. Three races are rated Toss-up: Florida, Nebraska, and New Mexico. Watch for polling movement in each, since none currently shows a clear front-runner.
Several other states carry ratings that suggest an advantage without certainty. Arizona, Georgia, and Iowa are each rated Lean D, while Kansas is rated Lean R. Michigan and Minnesota are rated Likely D, and New Hampshire is rated Likely R. These eight races warrant continued attention as new polling could shift several from "lean" to "likely" or into toss-up territory.
New Polls (0)
No polls with fresh fieldwork today.
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