Six states vote Tuesday, headlined by South Carolina's crowded Republican Senate primary to fill the seat left vacant by Lindsey Graham's death, alongside a competitive Wisconsin gubernatorial primary and down-ballot contests in Vermont, Alabama, and Minnesota. The night's results will test whether polling leads translate into consolidated support in fields still sorting out frontrunners.
South Carolina: Republicans Debate Their Way to a Graham Successor
South Carolina Republicans have spent the past two weeks debating who should replace the late Lindsey Graham in the Senate race, with Representative Russell Fry, Representative Ralph Norman, former Representative Mark Sanford, and a businessman candidate facing off in back-to-back forums hosted by Nexstar. Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm, showed Democrat Annie Andrews leading Fry 42 to 39 percent in a hypothetical general election, but both Cook Political Report and Inside Elections rate the seat Solid R, and Sabato's Crystal Ball calls it Safe R — a reminder that a close-looking poll from a partisan pollster carries limited weight against a state's underlying partisan lean. Andrews has out-raised the Republican field, reporting $10.8 million in total receipts against $6.77 million for Graham and $5.92 million for fellow Republican Mark Lynch, but money alone hasn't shifted the fundamental rating.
Local Republicans are also drawing comparisons between special-election candidate Darline Graham and Pamela Evette's unsuccessful 2022 gubernatorial run, questioning Graham's viability in the primary field. In the state's 1st District, where Nancy Mace's retirement has been announced, the seat is rated Likely R.
Wisconsin: A Democratic Socialist Tests the Governor's Primary
Wisconsin's governor's race primary features Francesca Hong, a Democratic Socialist state representative, running alongside Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes and Congresswoman Sara Rodriguez for the Democratic nomination. Marquette University polling from mid-July showed Barnes leading Republican Tom Tiffany 47 to 42 percent in a general-election matchup, while Rodriguez trailed narrowly, 42 to 41. RMG Research separately showed Democrat David Crowley ahead of Tiffany 46 to 43. The spread across matchups underscores that the eventual nominee's identity may matter as much as the underlying partisan environment in November.
Hong's candidacy has drawn national attention and conservative media scrutiny over past social media posts and comments on the minimum wage, with commentators framing her campaign as a bellwether for the party's leftward primary energy this cycle.
Alabama and Minnesota: Statewide Fields Take Shape
Alabama voters will weigh in on Senate and governor's primaries, where a "yes. every kid." poll from mid-July showed Republican Barry Moore leading Democrat Everett Wess 47 to 32 in the Senate race, and Republican Tommy Tuberville ahead of Democrat Doug Jones 49 to 41 in the governor's race; Inside Elections and Cook both rate the Senate contest Solid R, with Sabato's calling it Safe R. In Minnesota, the Senate primary features Democrats Angie Craig and Peggy Flanagan in what Bernie Sanders has called a "tight" contest between the party's moderate and progressive wings, a split that will shape a race Cook and Inside Elections both rate Lean D.
Also voting Tuesday: Vermont, where Republican Governor Phil Scott leads Democrat Amanda Janoo 44 to 33 in one recent survey, with a House primary featuring incumbent Rebecca Balint against Republican challengers Gerald Malloy and C. Coester.
Polls
Generic Ballot: Divergent Reads on the National Mood
The generic congressional ballot shows a wide spread depending on pollster. Quantus Insights puts Democrats up 49-43, Economist/YouGov has them ahead 46-42, while Reuters/Ipsos — sampling a much larger pool of 3,542 respondents — shows a tighter 42-37 edge. The consistent thread is a mid-single-digit Democratic advantage, though the size of that lead varies enough to complicate any single narrative about the midterm environment.
Iowa: Sand Leads, Turek Trails
Emerson's Iowa polling shows a split picture. In the governor's race, Democrat Rob Sand leads Republican Zach Lahn 48-43. But in the Senate race, Democrat Josh Turek trails Republican Ashley Hinson 45-48. Both surveys come from the same 712-person sample, suggesting ticket-splitting rather than a uniform partisan lean across Iowa's statewide contests.
North Carolina and Michigan Senate Contests
In the North Carolina Senate race, Change Research shows Democrat Roy Cooper leading Republican Michael Whatley 50-41, a nine-point margin from a Democratic-aligned pollster. In Michigan, EPIC-MRA's Senate poll shows Republican Mike Rogers ahead of Democrat Abdul El-Sayed 46-43, a reminder that single-pollster results in different states can point in opposite directions.
Follow the Money
California House Money: Khanna's War Chest Towers Over a Crowded Field
Cash reserves in California's House contests vary sharply by district. Ro Khanna, a Democrat, sits atop the field with $16.9 million on hand, dwarfing every other candidate in the dataset despite representing a race rated Likely D. His $13.76 million in receipts and relatively modest $7.54 million in disbursements suggest a campaign banking money rather than spending it down.
Contrast that with Young Kim, a Republican who raised $8.84 million but spent nearly all of it — $8.89 million in disbursements against just $1.68 million remaining. Eric Jones, a Democrat, shows a similar pattern: $8.38 million raised, only $655,718 left. Derek Tran and David Valadao post more balanced positions, each retaining $3.2–3.4 million of their smaller hauls.
The disparity underscores that fundraising totals alone don't indicate late-race strength. Candidates like Kim and Jones have burned through nearly all their receipts, while Khanna's reserves position him to spend heavily down the stretch if needed, independent of his district's competitiveness.
Headlines
- Sanders: ‘Ban super PACs from Democratic primaries now’ (The Hill)
Sen. Bernie Sanders called on Democratic leadership to ban super PACs from Democratic primary elections in a letter t... - Tim Scott says El-Sayed ‘making it easier’ for GOP (The Hill)
Republican National Senatorial Committee Chair Tim Scott claimed that Democratic Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-S... - Will Darline Graham face the same fate Pamela Evette did in South Carolina? (Politico)
South Carolina Republicans are drawing parallels between Darline Graham's special Senate primary campaign and Pamela ...
What to Watch
🗳 Voting this week- Alabama primary — Tuesday, August 11 (TOMORROW)
- Connecticut primary — Tuesday, August 11 (TOMORROW)
- Minnesota primary — Tuesday, August 11 (TOMORROW)
- South Carolina primary — Tuesday, August 11 (TOMORROW)
- Vermont primary — Tuesday, August 11 (TOMORROW)
- Wisconsin primary — Tuesday, August 11 (TOMORROW)
This section was withheld by a pre-send data check — see pollingsource.com for verified data.
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