Two states go to the polls Tuesday, both featuring Republican-dominated statewide fields but with sharply different storylines. Oklahoma's marquee contest is a gubernatorial runoff testing the strength of a presidential endorsement, while South Carolina Republicans settle a bitter Senate primary fight for a seat once held by Lindsey Graham.
Oklahoma: Governor's Runoff Tests Trump Endorsement
Tuesday's runoff pits Republican Mike Mazzei, backed by President Trump, against Oklahoma Attorney General Gentner Drummond, also a Republican. The two were separated by less than a percentage point in the June primary, setting up a genuine test of presidential coattails in a state Republicans otherwise dominate. No independent runoff polling has been released in the data available.
Down the ballot, Oklahoma's Senate race is not competitive on paper: a CHS & Associates poll completed August 6 shows Republican Kevin Hern leading Democrat Jim Priest 48-27, and the race is rated Solid R by Inside Elections and Cook Political Report and Safe R by Sabato's Crystal Ball. Hern has raised nearly $10 million for the Senate bid, dwarfing fundraising in the state's House contests.
South Carolina: GOP Senate Runoff to Replace Graham
South Carolina Republicans will choose their nominee for the seat once held by the late Senator Lindsey Graham, with Rep. Ralph Norman facing Darline Graham, Lindsey Graham's sister, in a runoff. The race has drawn outside spending from an unlikely source: a climate-focused PAC, Invest in Tomorrow Coalition, has run ads attacking Norman as insufficiently aligned with Trump, citing his 2024 endorsement of a different candidate. Norman has also picked up an endorsement from former Governor Marshall C Sanford, while Graham has been criticized after a debate in which she said national security was not her area of expertise, and drew an endorsement from Rep. Russell Fry after his own primary elimination. The eventual nominee will face Democrat Annie Andrews, who has outraised both remaining Republicans with $10.8 million in total receipts, in a Senate race rated Solid R by Inside Elections and Cook and Safe R by Sabato's Crystal Ball.
South Carolina's 7th District, an open seat left by Nancy Mace's retirement, also features a competitive Republican field. A Blueprint Polling survey completed July 28 showed Republican Russell Fry leading Democrat John Vincent 41-37 in the general election matchup, which carries a Likely R rating.
Beyond the marquee contests, Oklahoma voters will also weigh in on down-ballot House primaries in districts held by Republicans Tom Cole, Stephanie Bice and Frank Lucas, while South Carolina's 6th District race features Democratic incumbent Jim Clyburn against Republican challengers still building their campaign war chests.
Polls
| National Generic Noble Predictive | DEM 47% · GOP 42% |
| AR Governor Hendrix College (n=1217 LV) | Fredrick Love 40% · Sarah Huckabee Sanders 45% |
| NM Governor BSP Research (n=800 RV) | Deb Haaland 41% · Gregg Hull 24% |
| NM Governor BSP | Deb Haaland 41% · Gregg Hull 27% |
Follow the Money
Florida Senate: A Fractured Democratic Field Against a Well-Funded Republican
Financial disclosures in the Florida Senate race show Republican Ashley Moody has raised $11.3 million and, notably, has already spent only $2.8 million of it, leaving her with $8.5 million in cash on hand. That reserve gives her substantial flexibility heading into the general election phase of the race, rated Likely R.
On the Democratic side, the fundraising picture is split between two candidates rather than consolidated behind one nominee. Joshua Weil raised $15.9 million but has spent all of it, leaving zero cash on hand, while Angie Nixon raised just under $975,000 and retains roughly $265,000.
The contrast in burn rates is stark: Moody has banked most of her money while Weil has depleted his entirely. Combined Democratic receipts modestly exceed Moody's total, but neither Democrat currently has money left to spend against a Republican sitting on a multimillion-dollar reserve.
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What to Watch
🗳 Voting this week- Oklahoma runoff — Tuesday, August 25 (TOMORROW)
- South Carolina runoff — Tuesday, August 25 (TOMORROW)
Runoffs Set for August 25
Oklahoma and South Carolina both hold primary runoffs on August 25, 2026. Oklahoma's runoff will decide nominees across Senate, House, and governor contests, while South Carolina's runoff is confined to its Senate race. Turnout and margins in these contests will shape which candidates carry their party's banner into the general election.
Governor's Races Cluster Around Toss-Up Ratings
Two governor's races currently carry a Toss-up rating: Georgia and Ohio. Both are worth close attention as polling develops, since neither has settled into a clear directional lean. A tier of Lean-rated contests sits just behind them — Florida and Kansas lean Republican, Maine and Oregon lean Democratic — meaning modest polling shifts could move any of these into more competitive territory.
Other Governor's Contests to Track
Several other states carry more settled ratings for now: Arizona and Michigan are rated Likely D, while Iowa and Nevada are rated Likely R. These races warrant less daily scrutiny than the toss-ups and lean races, but any significant polling movement would be notable given their current classification.
New Polls (2)
Added to the Archive (2)
Older polls newly added to the PollingSource database — fieldwork predates the last two weeks. Full results on each race page.
Rating Changes
PollingSource Poll Average: New Mexico Governor N/A → Safe D
PollingSource Poll Average: Michigan Governor N/A → Likely D
PollingSource Poll Average: Michigan Senate N/A → Toss-up
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