Michigan's Senate race is the day's clearest story, with three surveys fielded within the last two weeks all landing within striking distance of each other but disagreeing on who's ahead. Elsewhere, a Big Data Poll pegs the national generic ballot at a wide 50-39 Democratic edge, while South Carolina and Florida House polling show Republicans holding narrow leads in contests PollingSource still rates competitively.
Michigan Senate: Three Polls, Three Different Leaders
The Michigan Senate race between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers has drawn three polls with fieldwork ending between July 24 and July 30, and they tell three different stories. MEA/Glengariff's July 24 survey of 600 likely voters gave Rogers a 10-point lead, 49 to 39 percent. Five days later, MIRS/Mitchell Research found the race tied at 45 percent among 672 likely voters. SoCal Strategies, fielding through July 30, showed Rogers up narrowly, 42 to 41 percent, among 640 likely voters. The spread across pollsters using similar timeframes underscores why PollingSource rates the race a Toss-up.
Generic Ballot: Big Data Poll Shows Wide Democratic Lead
A Big Data Poll survey of 2,617 likely voters, fielded through July 29, put Democrats ahead of Republicans 50 to 39 percent on the generic congressional ballot. The 11-point margin is wider than other recent generic-ballot surveys reported this cycle, and the large sample size distinguishes it from smaller state-level polls released the same week.
South Carolina and Florida House Races: Republicans Hold Narrow Advantages
In South Carolina, a GQR poll conducted for Democrats shows Republican Honeycutt leading Democrat Nancy Lacore 50 to 48 percent among 400 likely voters surveyed through July 22, a two-point gap in a race PollingSource rates a Toss-up. In Florida's House race, Republican Mike Haridopolos led Democrat Jennifer Jenkins in two polls with differing sponsorship: Inquire LLC, polling for Republicans, showed Haridopolos up 51 to 42 percent as of July 29, while Public Policy Polling, working for Democrats, had him ahead by a smaller 44 to 35 percent margin among 633 registered voters surveyed through July 18. PollingSource rates that Florida contest Likely R.
Wisconsin Governor Primary: Hong Faces Scrutiny Over Democratic Socialism Ties
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Francesca Hong faced questioning from Fox News anchor Dana Perino over her affiliation with the Democratic Socialists of America and past social media posts calling to defund police. The exchange highlights a line of attack likely to recur as Wisconsin's governor's race primary field narrows.
Watch for further movement in Michigan's Senate polling average as more surveys are added, and for any secretary of state guidance on Maine's sore-loser law dispute involving Democratic Senate nominee Troy Jackson.
Polls
| National Generic Big Data Poll (n=2617 LV) | Democrats 50% · Republicans 39% |
| CA House Lake Research Partners | Scott Wiener 45% · None 0% |
| CO House Keating Research (n=500 LV) | Dwayne Romero 45% · Jeff Hurd 46% |
| FL House Inquire LLC (R) | Jennifer Jenkins 42% · Mike Haridopolos 51% |
| FL House Public Policy Polling (D) (n=633 RV) | Jennifer Jenkins 35% · Mike Haridopolos 44% |
| SC House GQR (D) (n=400 LV) | Nancy Lacore 48% · Honeycutt 50% |
| MI Senate MEA/Glengariff (n=600 LV) | El-Sayed 39% · Rogers 49% |
| MI Senate MIRS/Mitchell Research (n=672 LV) | El-Sayed 45% · Rogers 45% |
Follow the Money
Michigan Senate: Three-Way Fundraising Race
The Michigan Senate race produced the most crowded set of competitive filings this period. Democrat Haley Stevens reported $11.9 million in receipts with $2.8 million on hand after $9.1 million in disbursements. Fellow Democrat Mallory McMorrow raised $11.4 million but has spent nearly as much, leaving $1.9 million in cash on hand. Republican Mike Rogers posted $10.9 million in receipts and $4.5 million on hand, giving him the largest reserve of the three despite trailing both Democrats in total fundraising.
Ohio and New Hampshire: Brown and Pappas Post Strong Numbers
In the Ohio Senate race, Democrat Sherrod Brown reported $38.6 million in total receipts, the largest figure in this batch of filings, with $16.2 million still in the bank after $22.3 million in spending. In New Hampshire, Democrat Chris Pappas raised $13.4 million for the New Hampshire Senate race, with $5.2 million cash on hand against $8.6 million in disbursements.
House Filings: Vindman and McClain Delaney Show Divergent Cash Positions
In Virginia, Democrat Eugene Vindman reported $12.4 million in receipts for the Virginia 7th District race, with $6.6 million remaining after $5.9 million in spending. In Maryland, Democrat April McClain Delaney raised a comparable $12.3 million for the Maryland 6th District race, but disbursements of $12 million left her with just $307,611 on hand, the tightest cash position among the candidates in this report.
Other Senate Filings: Craig, Whatley and Ricketts
Democrat Angie Craig reported $11.9 million in receipts for the Minnesota Senate race, with $5 million on hand. In North Carolina, Republican Michael Whatley raised $11.3 million for the North Carolina Senate race, holding $3.5 million in cash after $7.8 million in spending. Nebraska Republican Pete Ricketts posted $11.2 million in receipts for the Nebraska Senate race and retained $6.9 million on hand, the highest cash-to-receipts ratio among Senate filers in this report.
Headlines
- Fetterman: Trump has ‘zero leverage’ over lame-duck GOP senators (The Hill)
Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) argues that President Trump lacks leverage over departing Republican senators, pointing t... - Maine secretary of state's office says it will not make determination on whether Troy Jackson's candidacy violates sore loser law (Ballotpedia News)
Maine's Secretary of State's office declined to rule on whether Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Troy Jackson violates ... - After two independents removed from the ballot, four candidates remain in general election for Illinois' 4th Congressional District (Ballotpedia News)
Illinois' 4th Congressional District general election has been narrowed to four candidates after two independents wer...
What to Watch
This section was withheld by a pre-send data check — see pollingsource.com for verified data.
New Polls (6)
Rating Changes
PollingSource Poll Average: Florida House CD-08 N/A → Likely R
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