Primary
Democratic Primary
Held August 18, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schultz — Withdrew | 10,195 | 8.1% | |
| Eric Hafner | 4,766 | 3.8% | |
| John B. Williams | 3,192 | 2.5% | |
| Yaquelin Reynoso | 2,248 | 1.8% |
Republican Primary
Held August 18, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Begich | 58,133 | 46.2% | |
| Clay Strickland | 2,933 | 2.3% | |
| Eddie Goldfarb | 738 | 0.6% |
Libertarian Primary
Held August 18, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| James C. “Jim” McDermott | 1,557 | 1.2% | |
| John E. Sr. Foddrill | 272 | 0.2% |
Nonpartisan Primary
Held August 18, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Hill | 39,113 | 31.1% | |
| Melanie A. Salazar | 874 | 0.7% | |
| Lady Donna Dutchess | 504 | 0.4% | |
| David Richey | 437 | 0.4% | |
| David R. II Ambrose | 366 | 0.3% |
Undeclared Primary
Held August 18, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew “Bronco” Williams | 450 | 0.4% |
Full calendar and every race: Alaska primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
The right edge is that same average of the last three polls. This is an average, not a forecast.
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Candidates
Matthew Damian Schultz Won Primary — Withdrew
DemocratNot on the Alaska Division of Elections 2026 general ballot. Certified: Begich, Hafner, Bill Hill and McDermott.
Eric Hafner Nominee
DemocratCertified Democrat on the Alaska Division of Elections 2026 general ballot (top four, ranked choice). Every ballot candidate is seated.
Nick Begich Nominee Incumbent
RepublicanBill Hill Nominee
NonpartisanCertified nonpartisan candidate on the Alaska Division of Elections 2026 general ballot (top four, ranked choice). Every ballot candidate is seated.
James C. McDermott Nominee
LibertarianCertified Libertarian on the Alaska Division of Elections 2026 general ballot (top four, ranked choice). Every ballot candidate is seated.
General Election Polling Average
Average uses final-round head-to-heads only. Newer first-choice polls shown for reference.
LV = likely voters · RV = registered voters · ± = margin of error · R-sponsored / D-sponsored / I-sponsored = paid for by a Republican, Democratic, or Independent group · "missed 2024 by X pts" = that firm's average miss in 2024
Average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls. Fewer than three uses the polls that exist. The rating uses that average when the newest poll ended in the last 30 days. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress D-sponsored missed 2024 by 4.1 pts In average (final round) | 2026-10-16 this poll | 659 LV | ±4.00 | Bill Hill 49.00% | Nick Begich 51.00% |
| All candidates, first choice: Nick Begich (R) 48% · Bill Hill (I) 42% · Eric Hafner (D) 5% · James C. McDermott (L) 1% · Others 49% | |||||
| Public Policy Polling (D) D-sponsored missed 2024 by 2.0 pts First choice only, not in average first-round numbers | 2026-10-15 this poll | 578 RV | — | — | |
| All candidates, first choice: Nick Begich (R) 45% · Bill Hill (I) 44% · Eric Hafner (D) 5% · James C. McDermott (L) 2% · Others 44% · Undecided 4% | |||||
| Alaska Survey Research D-sponsored First choice only, not in average first-round numbers | 2026-10-03 this poll | 1512 LV | ±3.00 | — | — |
| All candidates, first choice: Nick Begich (R) 50% · Bill Hill (I) 40% · Eric Hafner (D) 7% · James C. McDermott (L) 3% · Others 40% | |||||
| New York Times/Siena University missed 2024 by 3.1 pts In average (final round) | 2026-10-01 this poll | 504 LV | ±5.10 | Other 47.00% | Nick Begich 53.00% |
| Final round: Nick Begich (R) 53% · Bill Hill (I) 47% · Others 47% | |||||
| Fabrizio/Anzalone missed 2024 by 1.9 pts In average (final round) | 2026-09-11 this poll | 800 LV | ±3.50 | Hafner 43.00% | Begich 57.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 AK-AL House race?
Polling so far tested a matchup that is no longer live: Bill Hill is not the Democrat nominee — Eric Hafner is. In that earlier polling, Nick Begich III led Bill Hill 52% to 48%. The PollingSource average resets once the final matchup is polled.
Is the 2026 AK-AL House race competitive?
Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates it Lean R, the current rating band, and the race is competitive.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 AK-AL House race say?
The most recent poll in our average, from Data for Progress (completed October 16, 2026), found Bill Hill (D) at 49% and Nick Begich III (R) at 51%, and Bill Hill (I) at 49%.
When is the 2026 AK-AL House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls, or fewer when fewer exist. One poll sets the rating when it ended in the last 30 days. We do not exclude pollsters. The table lists recent polls, including ones older than those three. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
Defeated Peltola 2024; ranked-choice voting state
Independent Expenditures Updated 4 hours ago
Top Spenders
- WHEEL DOG PAC Dem-aligned $7,134,717
- CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION GOP-aligned $2,482,828
- HMP Dem-aligned $2,396,538
- YOUR COMMUNITY PAC Dem-aligned $1,322,784
- NO GOING BACK PAC INC. GOP-aligned $886,528
- DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS GOP-aligned $508,142
- FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND GOP-aligned $488,430
- AMERICA FIRST AGRICULTURE ACTION INC. GOP-aligned $378,246
- CORNERSTONE FOUNDERS PAC Dem-aligned $356,500
- SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION) Dem-aligned $300,000
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
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