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Today's Source

Tuesday, July 21, 2026

← Jul 20

Exactly 1 state is holding elections today: Arizona, which is conducting primary day voting for its House delegation and governor's race. The state's 1st and 6th Districts headline a slate of competitive contests, with fundraising totals and early candidate controversies shaping expectations heading into tonight's returns.

Arizona: A Primary Night Stress-Tested by Money and Scandal

Arizona voters are casting primary ballots today across multiple U.S. House races and the governor's race. The most-watched contest sits in the 1st District, rated a toss-up by both Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Fundraising there is lopsided on the Republican side: Eli Crane has raised $9.48 million with $2.84 million on hand, far outpacing Juan Ciscomani's $6.17 million raised, though Ciscomani holds more cash on hand at $4.14 million. On the Democratic side, Joanna Mendoza leads the money race with $7.35 million raised and $3.26 million banked, ahead of Jonathan Treble, Jonathan Nez, Adelita Grijalva, and Marlene Galan-Woods, all of whom trail significantly in receipts.

The 6th District is also drawing national attention, rated a toss-up by Cook and Sabato's Crystal Ball, with Inside Elections tilting the race toward Republicans. That race has been complicated by reporting on Mark Lamb, a Trump-backed former sheriff, whose campaign has faced scrutiny over allegations of sexual improprieties and abuse of power — a storyline that could affect turnout and margins in tonight's primary count. Separately, in the Phoenix-area House race, community organizer Kai Newkirk has mounted a competitive challenge against incumbent Rep. Greg Stanton in a seat previously considered safely Democratic, adding an unexpected primary dynamic to watch as results come in.

Beyond the House races, Arizona's ballot initiative landscape is also active: a campaign called Protect Education, Accountability Now submitted 421,451 signatures on July 2 for a measure to limit Empowerment Scholarship Account eligibility and spending, the first of six planned initiatives to reach that stage ahead of the November general election. Separately, the U.S. Supreme Court has agreed to review Arizona laws on documentary proof of citizenship for voter registration and removal of noncitizens from voter rolls — a case with implications for future election administration in the state, though it will not affect tonight's primary voting. Watch tonight for how the 1st and 6th District margins shape general-election positioning, whether the Lamb campaign's controversies dent his primary performance, and whether Newkirk's challenge to Stanton draws closer than expected.

Also on the ballot today: no other states are holding elections.

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Polls

National Generic
Morning Consult (n=2200 RV)
Democrats 46% · Republicans 43%

Explore all polls and averages →

Follow the Money

Michigan Senate: Three Democrats Post Comparable Hauls

The Michigan Senate race produced the most crowded fundraising picture in this filing period, with three Democrats reporting double-digit receipts. Abdul El-Sayed led the trio with $12,222,406.75 raised and $9,492,277.33 spent, leaving him $2,730,129.42 on hand. Mallory McMorrow raised $11,313,789.76 against $9,151,203.76 in disbursements, ending with $2,162,586.00 in the bank. Haley Stevens brought in $10,963,773.52, spent $7,544,971.71, and holds $3,418,801.81 cash on hand. All three have burned through most of what they raised this period, and none holds a commanding cash advantage over the others heading into the next filing window.

Ohio and Nebraska: Contrasting Cash Positions

Sherrod Brown, a Democrat running in the Ohio Senate race, posted the largest raw numbers in this batch — $38,566,234.10 in total receipts and $22,336,492.78 in disbursements, leaving $16,229,741.32 on hand, well above every other candidate in this set. In the Nebraska Senate race, Republican Pete Ricketts raised $11,233,506.70 but spent comparatively little, $4,809,505.91, banking $6,910,969.90. Republican Ashley Moody, running in the Florida Senate race, showed a similar pattern of restraint: $10,802,229.65 raised against just $2,380,993.25 spent, for $8,421,236.40 on hand — the strongest cash position relative to receipts of any candidate in this report.

Down-Ballot Fundraising: Virginia, Minnesota, North Carolina, South Carolina

In the Virginia 7th District race, Democrat Eugene Vindman raised $12,056,375.28 and reported $6,661,973.59 cash on hand after $5,529,335.43 in spending. In the Minnesota Senate race, Democrat Angie Craig raised $11,932,560.20, spent $6,896,500.22, and holds $5,036,059.98 on hand. Republican Michael Whatley, in the North Carolina Senate race, reported $11,272,504.49 raised against $7,810,806.43 spent, leaving $3,461,698.06 in the bank. Democrat Annie Andrews, running in the South Carolina Senate race, raised $10,804,040.50 and spent $6,684,745.50, ending with $4,119,295.00 cash on hand. Across these four contests, disbursement rates varied widely, with Whatley and Craig spending more than half their receipts while Andrews and Vindman retained somewhat larger shares of their totals.

Headlines

What to Watch

This section was withheld by a pre-send data check — see pollingsource.com for verified data.

New Polls (1)

Generic 1 poll
Jul 19, 2026 Morning Consult n=2,200 RV Democrats 46% Republicans 43% D+3

Rating Changes

PollingSource Poll Average: New Hampshire Governor N/A → Likely R

PollingSource Poll Average: New Hampshire Senate N/A → Likely D

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