Georgia's marquee 2026 contests come into sharper focus today with a new Wick poll showing a state that splits its ticket: Republican gubernatorial candidate Rick Jackson leads Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms 43.2 to 42.7 percent, while Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff holds a wider 46.7 to 42.9 percent edge over Republican Mike Collins. Both races carry Likely D ratings from the PollingSource average, though the governor's race margin sits within the poll's error range. Elsewhere, Maine Democrats' Senate succession fight draws a new entrant as national Democrats publicly feud over the field's viability.
Georgia: Divergent Paths in Governor and Senate Races
The Georgia Senate race and Georgia governor's race are producing different pictures despite sharing an electorate. The Wick poll, fielded through June 30 among 1,175 likely voters, shows Ossoff building a nearly four-point cushion over Collins, consistent with an incumbent senator's typical advantages in name recognition and fundraising. Bottoms, by contrast, trails Jackson by half a point in the same survey — a margin that suggests gubernatorial contests are not simply tracking the top of the ticket this cycle. Both races remain rated Likely D by the PollingSource average, but the governor's number bears watching for signs of further tightening.
Maine Senate: Duckworth Breaks With Democrats Over Shah
The Maine Senate race succession fight escalated as Illinois Senator Tammy Duckworth, a Democrat, publicly called on fellow Democrat Nirav Shah to withdraw from consideration as Graham Platner's replacement. Duckworth cited Shah's handling of a Legionnaires' disease outbreak during his tenure atop Illinois' public health department, framing it as a disqualifying failure on veterans' safety. The intervention shows the party's replacement process, still unsettled days after Platner's withdrawal, drawing scrutiny from national figures rather than being resolved quietly at the state level. Democrats face Republican incumbent Susan Collins in four months with the nominee still undetermined.
Florida: Ethics Cloud Hangs Over Mills' Primary
Representative Cory Mills faces three Republican challengers, including Ryan Elijah, in Florida's 7th District primary set for August 18. Mills has been under House Ethics Committee investigation since 2025, and the multi-candidate field suggests intraparty appetite to unseat him before Democrats get a chance to contest the seat in November. Separately, an archival Change Research survey completed June 14 showed Republican Alex Vindman leading Democrat Ashley Moody 46-43 in Florida's presidential-line polling, a result predating a month of subsequent developments and offered here as background rather than current movement.
South Carolina: GOP Presses to Close Its Primary
The South Carolina Republican Party filed suit to end the state's open primary system, seeking to limit its primary electorate to registered Republicans only. The state currently allows any voter to choose either party's primary regardless of registration. A ruling in the GOP's favor would reshape how competitive the party's primaries are in future cycles by narrowing turnout to registered partisans, with implications for down-ballot races statewide.
Watch for further movement in the Maine Democratic field as candidates jockey to replace Platner, and for any additional primary polling out of Georgia that could clarify whether Bottoms' narrow deficit is a real trend or statistical noise.
Polls
| GA Governor Wick (n=1175 LV) | Keisha Lance Bottoms 42.70% · Rick Jackson 43.20% |
| FL Presidential Change Research (n=1015 LV) | Ashley Moody 43.00% · Alex Vindman 46.00% |
| GA Senate Wick (n=1175 LV) | Jon Ossoff 46.70% · Mike Collins 42.90% |
Follow the Money
Ohio Senate: Brown Posts the Quarter's Top Number
Sherrod Brown, the Democrat seeking a return to the chamber, leads all early filers with $25.9 million raised, banking $17 million in cash on hand after spending just under $9 million. The gap between his haul and the rest of the field is stark: no other candidate in this batch topped $10 million, and Brown's cash position dwarfs every other filer disclosed so far. His fundraising sets an early benchmark for the Ohio Senate race as Republicans look to defend the seat.
Michigan's Crowded Senate Primary Shows Its Costs
The Michigan Senate race is drawing money from multiple directions, with three Democrats and a leading Republican all clearing $7.6 million. Haley Stevens raised $8.9 million and holds $3.4 million on hand; Mallory McMorrow brought in $8.6 million with $3.7 million remaining; and Abdul El-Sayed reported $7.6 million raised against $5.1 million spent, leaving him with the thinnest cash position of the three at $2.5 million. On the Republican side, Michael Rogers filed $7.7 million raised and $4.3 million cash on hand. With no clear frontrunner in the fundraising numbers, the primary appears likely to remain competitive on financial terms alone.
Texas and Kentucky: Heavy Spending, Thin Reserves
Several filers show disbursements outpacing or nearly matching receipts, a pattern worth watching heading into the next reporting period. In the Texas Senate race, Democrat Colin Allred raised $7.6 million but spent $7.76 million, leaving just $11,951 on hand; Republican incumbent John Cornyn posted a similar pattern, with $7.9 million raised against $7.96 million spent. In Kentucky, Republican Garland Barr reported $8.4 million raised but $9.6 million disbursed, and rival Republican Nate Morris spent $7.9 million of his $8.6 million raised, leaving only $708,324 in reserve. In the House, Texas Democrat Jasmine Crockett reported zero cash on hand after $9.4 million in disbursements against $7.9 million raised. These figures suggest primary-stage spending is already intense in several contests, including the Kentucky Senate race.
Headlines
- Incumbent Rep. Cory Mills faces three Republican challengers in Florida's 7th District primary (Ballotpedia News)
Incumbent Rep. Cory Mills faces three Republican challengers in Florida's 7th District primary scheduled for August 1... - Neal, first elected in 1988, faces primary challenger Whalen in Massachusetts' 1st Congressional District (Ballotpedia News)
Long-serving incumbent Richard Neal, first elected in 1988, faces a primary challenge from progressive candidate Jero... - The Ghost of Graham Platner Will Haunt Establishment Democrats (Daily Signal)
Democrats are attempting to distance themselves from progressive candidate Graham Platner in the Maine Senate race, b...
What to Watch
Alabama Runoffs Set for July 14
Alabama holds primary runoffs on July 14 across Senate, House, and governor contests, the next scheduled electoral event on the calendar. Turnout patterns from these runoffs will offer an early read on party enthusiasm ahead of the fall.
House Battlegrounds to Track
Several House races remain rated Toss Up and merit close attention as new polling and fundraising reports emerge. Arizona's 1st District and 6th District both sit in that category, as does California's 13th District and 22nd District. Watch for shifts in California's 45th and 47th Districts, currently Lean R, along with Colorado's 8th District, also Lean R, and Iowa's 1st District, rated Likely R — any movement in these ratings would signal broader trends.
Senate Contests in Florida and Georgia
The Florida Senate race is rated Likely R, while the Georgia Senate race stands at Lean D. Both warrant monitoring for polling updates that could adjust their current ratings.
New Polls (2)
Added to the Archive (1)
Older polls newly added to the PollingSource database — fieldwork predates the last two weeks. Full results on each race page.
Rating Changes
PollingSource Poll Average: Georgia Senate N/A → Likely D
PollingSource Poll Average: Georgia Governor N/A → Likely D
How was today's briefing?
Get this briefing in your inbox every morning
Free. No password required. Unsubscribe anytime.