Primary
Democratic Primary
Held March 3, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Cooper ✓ | 761,345 | 97.4% | |
| Marcus Williams | 20,336 | 2.6% |
Republican Primary
Held March 3, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Whatley ✓ | 405,140 | 68.8% | |
| Don Brown | 97,891 | 16.6% | |
| Thomas Johnson | 35,534 | 6.0% | |
| Michele Morrow | 35,065 | 6.0% | |
| Margot Dupre | 14,886 | 2.5% |
Full calendar and every race: North Carolina primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
PollingSource average — trailing average of all polls from the last 30 days.
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General Election Polling Average
Average reflects all polls from the last 30 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights | 2026-09-22 | 688 LV | ±4.20 | Cooper 48.00% | Whatley 43.00% |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2026-09-22 | 1047 LV | ±3.00 | Cooper 48.00% | Whatley 41.00% |
| Opinion Diagnostics partisan·R | 2026-09-20 | 857 LV | ±3.30 | Roy Cooper 51.00% | Michael Whatley 41.00% |
| YouGov | 2026-09-18 | 3745 LV | ±2.60 | Cooper 53.00% | Whatley 41.00% |
| YouGov | 2026-09-18 | 3864 RV | ±2.50 | Roy Cooper 52.00% | Michael Whatley 41.00% |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2026-09-17 | 1200 LV | ±2.80 | Cooper 48.00% | Whatley 43.00% |
| High Point University | 2026-09-16 | 813 RV | ±3.80 | Roy Cooper 49.00% | Michael Whatley 39.00% |
| Quantus Insights | 2026-09-16 | 645 LV | ±4.30 | Cooper 49.00% | Whatley 45.00% |
| Harper Polling (R) partisan·R | 2026-09-15 | 608 LV | ±4.00 | Roy Cooper 49.00% | Michael Whatley 34.00% |
| Carolina Journal/Harper | 2026-09-15 | 608 LV | ±4.00 | Cooper 49.00% | Whatley 34.00% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) partisan·R | 2026-09-10 | 1084 LV | ±2.90 | Roy Cooper 48.00% | Michael Whatley 42.00% |
| East Carolina University | 2026-09-03 | 675 LV | ±4.40 | Roy Cooper 46.00% | Michael Whatley 39.00% |
| Elon University/YouGov | 2026-08-31 | 565 LV | ±5.60 | Roy Cooper 49.00% | Michael Whatley 38.00% |
| Elon University | 2026-08-31 | 800 LV | ±5.60 | Cooper 49.00% | Whatley 38.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 North Carolina Senate race?
Roy Cooper leads Michael Whatley 48.8% to 40.5% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+8.3 margin based on 11 polls from the last 30 days.
Is the 2026 North Carolina Senate race competitive?
It is not considered a top-tier battleground: the PollingSource polling average rates it Likely D, the current rating band. An upset is not impossible.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 North Carolina Senate race say?
The most recent public poll, from Quantus Insights (completed September 22, 2026), found Cooper (D) at 48% and Whatley (R) at 43%.
When is the 2026 North Carolina Senate race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 30 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
Tillis retiring
Independent Expenditures Updated 3 hours ago
Top Spenders
- NO GOING BACK PAC INC. GOP-aligned $8,726,797
- SLF PAC GOP-aligned $7,165,509
- AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION GOP-aligned $1,688,439
- PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES NORTH CAROLINA Dem-aligned $623,848
- WORKERS VOTE Dem-aligned $216,104
- PROGRESSIVE TURNOUT PROJECT Dem-aligned $144,539
- CFFE PAC Dem-aligned $83,641
- WINSENATE Dem-aligned $50,000
- CAROLINA FEDERATION Dem-aligned $40,386
- THE CONSERVATIVE CAUCUS DBA AMERICANS FOR CONSTITUTIONAL LIBERTY GOP-aligned $29,084
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →