North Carolina Senate Race

2026 Election • Class 2
Back to Senate Races

Primary

Democratic Primary

Held March 3, 2026.

CandidateVotes%
Roy Cooper ✓ 761,345 97.4%
Marcus Williams 20,336 2.6%

Republican Primary

Held March 3, 2026.

CandidateVotes%
Michael Whatley ✓ 405,140 68.8%
Don Brown 97,891 16.6%
Thomas Johnson 35,534 6.0%
Michele Morrow 35,065 6.0%
Margot Dupre 14,886 2.5%

Full calendar and every race: North Carolina primary guide

Race Overview

Incumbent
OPEN (Thom Tillis)
Party
Republican
Open Seat
Yes
Current Rating
Likely D our polls experts: Lean D
Polls
11 polls

PollingSource Rating

Likely D
Our polling average D+8.3 · 11 polls

General Election Polling Trend

PollingSource average — trailing average of all polls from the last 30 days.

</> Embed this chart on your site

Free to embed — the chart credits and links back to PollingSource.

Share X Facebook Race page

Expert Ratings

Cook Political Report

Lean D
Changed from Lean R on Sep 14

Inside Elections

Tilt Democrat
Changed from Lean R on Aug 5

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Leans Democratic
Changed from Leans R on Jun 10

Candidates

Roy Cooper Nominee

Democrat
Total Raised: $34,975,789
Cash on Hand: $20,717,567
Michael Whatley

Michael Whatley Nominee

Republican
Total Raised: $11,272,504
Cash on Hand: $3,461,698

General Election Polling Average

Democrat
48.8%
Republican
40.5%
Margin
D+8.3
Last Poll
Sep 22, 2026

Average reflects all polls from the last 30 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →

PollsterDateSampleMoEDemRep
Quantus Insights 2026-09-22 688 LV ±4.20 Cooper 48.00% Whatley 43.00%
Rasmussen Reports 2026-09-22 1047 LV ±3.00 Cooper 48.00% Whatley 41.00%
Opinion Diagnostics partisan·R 2026-09-20 857 LV ±3.30 Roy Cooper 51.00% Michael Whatley 41.00%
YouGov 2026-09-18 3745 LV ±2.60 Cooper 53.00% Whatley 41.00%
YouGov 2026-09-18 3864 RV ±2.50 Roy Cooper 52.00% Michael Whatley 41.00%
InsiderAdvantage 2026-09-17 1200 LV ±2.80 Cooper 48.00% Whatley 43.00%
High Point University 2026-09-16 813 RV ±3.80 Roy Cooper 49.00% Michael Whatley 39.00%
Quantus Insights 2026-09-16 645 LV ±4.30 Cooper 49.00% Whatley 45.00%
Harper Polling (R) partisan·R 2026-09-15 608 LV ±4.00 Roy Cooper 49.00% Michael Whatley 34.00%
Carolina Journal/Harper 2026-09-15 608 LV ±4.00 Cooper 49.00% Whatley 34.00%
The Trafalgar Group (R) partisan·R 2026-09-10 1084 LV ±2.90 Roy Cooper 48.00% Michael Whatley 42.00%
East Carolina University 2026-09-03 675 LV ±4.40 Roy Cooper 46.00% Michael Whatley 39.00%
Elon University/YouGov 2026-08-31 565 LV ±5.60 Roy Cooper 49.00% Michael Whatley 38.00%
Elon University 2026-08-31 800 LV ±5.60 Cooper 49.00% Whatley 38.00%

Questions About This Race

Who is winning the 2026 North Carolina Senate race?

Roy Cooper leads Michael Whatley 48.8% to 40.5% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+8.3 margin based on 11 polls from the last 30 days.

Is the 2026 North Carolina Senate race competitive?

It is not considered a top-tier battleground: the PollingSource polling average rates it Likely D, the current rating band. An upset is not impossible.

What does the latest poll of the 2026 North Carolina Senate race say?

The most recent public poll, from Quantus Insights (completed September 22, 2026), found Cooper (D) at 48% and Whatley (R) at 43%.

When is the 2026 North Carolina Senate race decided?

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

How is the PollingSource average calculated?

The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 30 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.

Race Notes

Tillis retiring

Independent Expenditures Updated 3 hours ago

$18,834,691
Total IE Spending
$1,206,923
Support
$17,627,768
Oppose

Top Spenders

Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →

Race News