North Carolina Senate Race

2026 Election • Class 2
Back to Senate Races

Primary

Democratic Primary

Held March 3, 2026.

CandidateVotes%
Roy Cooper 761,345 92.0%
Justin Dues 22,295 2.7%
Marcus Williams 20,336 2.5%
Orrick Quick 7,275 0.9%
Robert Colon 6,777 0.8%

Republican Primary

Held March 3, 2026.

CandidateVotes%
Michael Whatley 405,140 64.6%
Don Brown 97,891 15.6%
Thomas Johnson 35,534 5.7%
Michele Morrow 35,065 5.6%
Elizabeth Temple 23,892 3.8%
Richard Dansie 14,996 2.4%
Margot Dupre 14,886 2.4%

Full calendar and every race: North Carolina primary guide

Race Overview

Incumbent
OPEN (Thom Tillis)
Party
Republican
Open Seat
Yes
Current Rating
Safe D our polls experts: Lean R
Polls
13 polls

PollingSource Rating

Safe D
Our polling average D+10.7 · 13 polls
⚑ Our polls diverge from the expert consensus — the story to watch.

General Election Polling Trend

PollingSource average — trailing average of all polls from the last 30 days.

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Expert Ratings

Cook Political Report

Lean R

Inside Elections

Lean R

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Leans R
Changed from Lean R on Feb 1

Candidates

Roy Cooper Nominee

Democrat
Total Raised: $34,975,789
Cash on Hand: $20,717,567
Michael Whatley

Michael Whatley Nominee

Republican
Total Raised: $11,272,504
Cash on Hand: $3,461,698

General Election Polling Average

Democrat
52.0%
Republican
41.3%
Margin
D+10.7
Last Poll
Aug 10, 2026

Average reflects all polls from the last 30 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →

PollsterDateSampleMoEDemRep
Carolina Journal/Harper 2026-08-10 600 LV ±4.00 Cooper 52.00% Whatley 39.00%
Carolina Journal 2026-08-10 LV Roy Cooper 51.50% Michael Whatley 39.00%
Harper Polling (R) partisan·R 2026-08-10 600 LV ±4.00 Roy Cooper 52.00% Michael Whatley 39.00%
Harper 2026-08-10 LV Roy Cooper 52.00% Michael Whatley 39.00%
Change Research partisan·D 2026-08-06 Roy Cooper 50.00% Michael Whatley 43.00%
Carolina Forward/Change Res. 2026-08-06 915 LV ±3.50 Cooper 50.00% Whatley 43.00%
Change Research (D) partisan·D 2026-08-01 967 V ±3.40 Roy Cooper 50.00% Michael Whatley 41.00%
Elon University/YouGov 2026-07-31 466 LV ±5.60 Roy Cooper 53.00% Michael Whatley 42.00%
Elon 2026-07-31 Roy Cooper 53.00% Michael Whatley 42.00%
Elon University 2026-07-31 466 LV ±4.40 Cooper 53.00% Whatley 42.00%
Political Polls 2026-07-31 LV Roy Cooper 53.00% Michael Whatley 42.00%
YouGov 2026-07-31 LV Roy Cooper 53.00% Michael Whatley 42.00%
Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) ±2.3 2026-07-27 1005 RV ±3.00 Roy Cooper 53.00% Michael Whatley 44.00%

Questions About This Race

Who is winning the 2026 North Carolina Senate race?

Roy Cooper leads Michael Whatley 52% to 41.3% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+10.7 margin based on 13 polls from the last 30 days.

Is the 2026 North Carolina Senate race competitive?

No — the PollingSource polling average rates it Safe D for Democrats. Note: our polling average (Safe D) diverges from the expert consensus (Lean R) — that gap makes this a race to watch.

What does the latest poll of the 2026 North Carolina Senate race say?

The most recent public poll, from Carolina Journal/Harper (completed August 10, 2026), found Cooper (D) at 52% and Whatley (R) at 39%.

When is the 2026 North Carolina Senate race decided?

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

How is the PollingSource average calculated?

The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 30 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.

Race Notes

Tillis retiring

Independent Expenditures Updated 1 hour ago

$3,640,430
Total IE Spending
$134,158
Support
$3,506,273
Oppose

Top Spenders

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