New Hampshire: Primary Fields Take Shape Ahead of September Vote

New Hampshire's September primary is drawing closer, and a new Saint Anselm College survey suggests the Democratic side of the ballot is largely settled while the Republican fields remain more competitive. In the Senate primary, Democrat Chris Pappas polls at 59 percent, a margin that leaves little doubt about his standing within his own party heading into the fall.

The picture is similarly lopsided in one of the state's House primaries, where Democrat Maggie Goodlander holds a 66 percent lead. That kind of share this close to a primary typically signals a campaign that has consolidated institutional support and left rivals with little room to make a late case to voters. A separate Democratic House primary survey tells a different story: Democrat Maura Sullivan sits at just 26 percent, a number that implies a fragmented field rather than a single dominant contender. Saint Anselm's numbers don't specify how many candidates are splitting the remaining vote, which makes Sullivan's standing harder to interpret without seeing the full field.

On the Republican side, the House primary fields show more separation between frontrunner and undecided voters. Republican Anthony DiLorenzo polls at 30 percent in his primary, a lead that leaves substantial room for movement before ballots are cast. Republican Lily Tang Williams is in a stronger position at 53 percent in hers, though that still falls short of the commanding numbers posted by Pappas or Goodlander. The contrast between the two Republican contests underscores that primary strength varies significantly by district, and neither DiLorenzo's nor Williams' numbers should be read as a settled outcome.

Saint Anselm's polling also looked past the primary calendar to test general-election matchups, and the results diverge sharply by office. In the governor's race, Republican Kelly Ayotte leads Democrat Cinde Warmington 49-38, an 11-point spread that suggests Ayotte enters the fall with a meaningful advantage if the numbers hold. The Senate general-election test tells a different story: Pappas leads Republican John E. Sununu 59-54 — wait, those figures as reported don't sum to a standard two-way share, a reminder that crosstabs and methodology matter and that readers should consult the full release before drawing conclusions about the size of any lead in that matchup.

Taken together, the survey paints a state where the gubernatorial contest looks more lopsided at this stage than the Senate race, even as Pappas maintains an advantage in both his primary and the general-election test. Whether that advantage narrows once Republicans consolidate behind a single Senate nominee is a question the current data cannot yet answer.