Governor: Donalds Holds Lead Over Jolly in Latest Survey

A Targoz Market Research poll completed July 26 shows Republican Byron Donalds leading Democrat David Jolly 45 percent to 38 percent in the Florida governor's race, with 1,026 respondents sampled. The seven-point margin leaves roughly 17 percent of the electorate either undecided or supporting other candidates, a sizable enough share that the current gap should not be read as settled. Florida Politics' retrospective on "25 moments" shaping the Republican primary underscores how contested the nomination process has been on the GOP side, though the polling referenced here reflects a general-election matchup rather than the primary contest itself. With no additional independent polling provided in this data set, the single Targoz survey should be treated as a snapshot rather than a trend line.

Senate: Money Race Diverges Sharply From Fundraising Efficiency

Fundraising totals in the Florida Senate race reveal a wide gap between what candidates have raised and what they have retained. Democrat Alexander Vindman leads all Senate candidates in this data with $16.3 million in total receipts and $7.25 million cash on hand. Fellow Democrat Joshua Weil is close behind in gross fundraising at $15.9 million, but reports zero cash on hand, suggesting the money has been spent as fast as it has come in — worth watching for what that implies about burn rate heading into the fall. On the Republican side, Ashley Moody has raised $11.26 million and holds $8.48 million in reserve, giving her the strongest cash position of any candidate in the race by a comfortable margin. Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all currently rate the general election Likely R, with Inside Elections' rating dated to a February 2 change.

House Races: Crowded Primaries and Thin Polling

Several Florida House primaries remain difficult to handicap given sparse public polling. In a race pitting Democrat Leela Gray against a Republican candidate identified only as "Anna," two partisan pollsters reached different conclusions within two weeks of each other: Fabrizio, Lee & Associates, polling for Republicans, had Anna ahead 49-41, while GQR, polling for Democrats, found a tighter 47-44 spread. The 8-point divergence between two partisan shops surveying the same race in the same window is a reminder that campaign-sponsored polls should be read as advocacy documents as much as measurement tools.

A separate contest testing Democrat Jennifer Jenkins against Republican Mike Haridopolos shows Haridopolos ahead 51-42 in a late-July poll from Inquire LLC, a Republican-aligned firm, with no sample size disclosed. In Florida's 11th Congressional District, Republican Joe Strada — also listed in some data as "Joe Stranda," a likely reporting inconsistency — polled even with Democrat James Pericola at 42-42 in a late-July MDW Communications survey, though MDW is a Democratic-aligned pollster and the race features other Republican candidates including Carey Baker, Nizam Razack, and Tim Wilkins competing for the nomination to succeed retiring Rep. Dan Webster. Strada has significantly outraised that field, reporting $5.25 million in total receipts and $2.25 million cash on hand according to FEC filings, giving him a financial advantage heading into the primary regardless of where the polling stands.

CD 2 and CD 22: Crowded Fields, Undecided Voters

Florida's 2nd Congressional District has drawn a large Republican field seeking to succeed departing Rep. Neal Dunn, including Keith Gross, Austin Rogers, Evan Power, and Jim Norton. Gross leads the fundraising pack among House candidates in this data with $12.3 million raised, though his cash on hand of just over $1 million is comparatively modest given that total. Meanwhile, a new poll in the 22nd Congressional District — redrawn under Governor Ron DeSantis' redistricting map — shows a marine veteran leading a three-candidate Republican primary, but with nearly half of GOP voters still undecided, according to the Daily Signal. That level of undecided voters this close to a primary suggests the eventual outcome may hinge heavily on turnout and late advertising rather than any consolidated front-runner.

Policy Signal: Crist's Data Center Moratorium Pledge

Democrat Charlie Crist has proposed a one-year moratorium on new data center construction if elected to the House, framing the issue around rising utility costs and competition for water and electricity in the St. Petersburg area. The pledge reflects a growing theme in Florida races where infrastructure strain — rather than traditional partisan issues — is being used to draw contrasts with opponents. Whether this resonates with voters beyond the district remains untested in the polling data available.

With several primaries this crowded and this thinly polled, Florida's late-summer contests remain more about fundraising totals and undecided voters than settled trend lines — a dynamic likely to persist until primary day narrows the fields.